Conference Tournament Totals (3/7)

YTD: 31-17 (64.6%)

2009-'10: 14-7

2010-'11: 2-3-1

1-1 yesterday – potentially can be a fluid situation again today, so I will not limit the title of my posts to the particular game I am handicapping; and posts may be a little shorter due to time constraints and quickly moving lines

Play: Rice / East Carolina Over 133

Angle in this one is East Carolina and the pace that they have demonstrated vs opponents ranked in the top 150 with respect to adjusted tempo this year. In the 9 games that fit this criteria, the Pirates have averaged 71.9 possessions, with none less than 67.

This is significant as they match up today with a Rice team ranked 54^th in the country in tempo averaging 68.7 possessions per game. These games have averaged 134.7 total points—however this average includes their two games vs Memphis in which they could only manage 59 and 47 points vs the 17^th best defensively efficient team in the country.

The earlier match up this year finished at 150 in a 75 possession game with the teams combining to shoot 46.8%--only a few percentage points above the season average for both teams.

Also worth noting with respect to historical trends is that the over is 5-1 in their meetings since Ben Braun arrived at Rice. This is significant as today’s posted total is actually the lowest during that span, yet this year’s Rice team is by far the fastest paced team he’s had under his tenure (+3.0 possession difference vs L3 year average).

Good luck if you decide to make a play

Quote Originally Posted by Red_Bud:

Nice write up
I know your record was 1-1 but didnt you play detroit second second 1/2 I had a few beers last night and I read your 1/2 time play as Detroit so I tailed you

Anyway good luck today and thank you for your write ups
 

As sllab33 stated, I did make a winning play on Detroit pk 2H last night but did not include it in my overall posted record. Trying to maintain focus on totals with these threads.

GL today

Quote Originally Posted by LONG-TU:

131 NOW

Yep, apparently some syndicate or tout service didn't like the over as much as I did in this one today

On a personally level I do. But there are more than enough qualified posters here in the forum that do a great job providing insight to side plays already on a daily basis.

I've always enjoyed math/statistics and college basketball, and find totals to be a great way to combine the two. In my opinion, totals can be more predictive than picking sides which include many more variables (motivation, situation, home vs away, etc.). And when time permits, I try to do a write up that shares the thought process and logic that goes beyond just looking at how many points per game a team scores or gives up that too many bettors only look at.

33-32 HT

Decent pace with 33 possessions in the first half. The 2 minute scoring drought did not help things at the end of the half.

Adjusted game line is 134.5