Conference Tournament Totals (3/7)

Rice / East Carolina Over 133 

Play: Robert Morris / Long Island Under 148 

This surely will be an unpopular play as LIU comes into the NEC championship game tonight as the 3^rd fastest team in the country with respect to adjusted pace averaging 74.5 possessions per game. Situationally speaking however, there are many things to like about the under in tonight’s game based on the Blackbirds having to face Robert Morris tonight.

First, RMU comes in as the 2^nd stingiest defense in the NEC only allowing 0.999 points per possession and already held LIU to a season low 66 points in conference play earlier this year. Last year, LIU was also the 3^rd fastest team in the country. And again, RMU held them to a season low 69 points in conference play.

But there is more. This is a repeat of the 2011 championship—a game which had a posted total of 143.5 and LIU won in OT 85-82. For comparison sake, both teams are very similar with respect to tempo and efficiency, but we get a total that is 4.5 points higher tonight.

Obviously, RMU will have revenge on their mind and know what to expect tonight as the championship game will be played at LIU’s home gym. I expect another focused defensive effort. RMU Coach Andy Toole:

"I know our guys are excited to compete for a championship, I know that, having been here last year and playing against a really good LIU team, they have an idea of how difficult it's going to be to win the game."

Lastly, and most importantly, RMU knows they can’t have this game turn into a track meet. And they’ve demonstrated by their efforts over the last 2 seasons they won’t let it. The last four meetings only averaged 67.3 possessions, 3.8 less than KenPom predicts tonight. More from Coach Toole:

 "I think the regular-season game obviously can give you some clues. Both teams are going to make adjustments. Both teams are going to review that and see what can happen.  We can't play with them flying up and down the floor. Controlling the tempo will be a big indicator, maybe, on who has a chance to win the game."

Obviously this is a risky play as it involves the super-fast paced LIU team playing at home in a game that should be down to the wire. However, there is no other opponent in the NEC that knows the blueprint better for beating the Blackbirds.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

Thank you for the play. Will you be posting any other plays?

Most likely that's it for the evening. Still one on my radar, but would need to dig a little deeper before I make a decision

Thanks for this write-up and the time you take to explain your bet.  Win or lose, it's greatly appreciated.