Posted:
#1
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Regular Season: -15.00
Conf. Tourney’s: +0.00
I’ll take a chance on the road squad in the first game of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as Tennessee State travels to Morehead State. Morehead has been somewhat decent at home, but they have simply been inconsistent. When I look at teams entering post-season play, I look for a few things. One, being momentum. Heading into their bracket buster game, Tennessee State had dropped 4 straight, and looked like a high school squad. Then, they were basically given another week to rest and prepare for the rest of their season as their bracket-buster game versus Northern Illinois was cancelled for obvious reasons. Tennessee State has played awfully well against Morehead State as of late noting the last three games, here are the scores at the half:
February 2007: Tennessee State 33, Morehead State 22
January 2008: Tennessee State 28, Morehead State 18
February 2008: Tennessee State 48, Morehead State 29
Yup, the most recent matchup Tennessee State had a 22 point lead at one point in the 2H and lost. The reason? They were called for an absurd number of fouls. Morehead went to the FT line 30+ times to TSU’s 10 if I can remember correctly, and they ended up shooting 83% from the line. That ain’t happening again, and if for some reason it does, my donation is worth while. I think I’m getting the more experienced squad with revenge on it’s mind from less than a week ago, and their going into a place where they straight rolled their opponent for 25 minutes last time out.
3* Tennessee State PK
I’ll also take a shot on a total in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament as well. I’m not sure where this 146 comes from, but it’s off in my opinion. If you take a look at Murray State’s 2nd time they’ve played the same team from this conference all year, I’m guessing 80% of the time they held them to fewer points than the first meeting. And if you break that down even farther, and look at the teams that they lost to and what they did to them defensively in the next game, it’s even better:
(+5) Lost to EKU as EKU scored 52; In the 2nd meeting, EKU scored 47
(+30) Lost to Samford as Samford scored 64; In the 2nd meeting, Samford scored 34
(+24) Lost to EIU as EIU scored 80; In the 2nd meeting, EIU scored 56
This is the third time these two teams will meet, which I like. I don’t think Tech gets to 60 here. Having just beaten Murray State by around 5 points just less than a week ago, and that game hit 137. Billy Kennedy has had nearly 2 weeks to preach the loss at Tenn Tech, and with that, his team came out in it’s only game and blasted Tennessee Martin by 40. I’ll play the under and hope Murray doesn’t hit 85+.
3* Murray State/Tenn Tech Under 146
Things to Note:
Strategy for Conference Tourney games are different for all coaches. You’ll see coaches rest some players more often, and some of the smaller schools will get more rest with media timeouts. Teams usually bring their best defense, which does not necessarily mean under, b/c you have to remember this is most teams last games of the year, and they’ll foul as much as they have to at the end, regardless of the score.
GL
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