December Hoops

You're on the right side I think, I lean that way only.. I spent enough time looking at this game the past few days that I could tell you what kind of gum each of the assistant coaches chews on a daily basis between the hours of 4pm and 6pm. And the only thing to come out of it was a scheduled visit to the psychiatrist tommorow morning.

...UIC at Northern, flip a coin. The only Horizon team Depaul should be favored over is Youngstown State. I really can’t justify Depaul being a PK against Ball State and a -3.5 against CMU, who both play in a weaker division in the MAC, and then being a favorite here against a more quality team with better guards than both the squads mentioned before, and coming off an overtime loss, with very low attendance, with very un-skilled players, with a rivalry game on deck, with a team that’s trailed in 6 out of the 9 games its played at half, with a team that’s been outrebounded in 8 of the 9 games it’s played, and with a team that’s defense is allowing opponents to shoot greater than 40% in 8 of the 9 games its played. Granted, the Ball State game wasn’t a true home game as it wasn’t played in Allstate, but this line baffles me to the point that I’m just going to mention the obvious and leave it alone. They welcome Loyola CHI on Saturday, and if they’re favored here, they’re probably a favorite in that one too (MKE more value than Loyola in my opinion in Horizon) in what might be a better spot to play. I will stop. No, I can’t stop yet. Depaul is the worst major conference team in the country in every ranking available. Purnell, former coach at Clemson relies on the three-point ball. His Clemson teams always have. It just so happens its not working at Depaul. They’re shooting 23%, that’s good for 341st in the country and the lighting at Allstate Arena isn’t going to help that trend. Depaul is struggling to find its identity. They have no identity. The students are gone from break already. Statistically, this is the 2nd toughest game Depaul will play this year thus far. The first was the loss against Oklahoma State. Wisconsin MKE has been inconsistent, I don’t care. They take care of the ball a lot better and that’s all you need to do against Depaul’s press. They have an experienced backcourt to take care of business. I literally spent hours on this game, I have seen video, I know entirely way too much about Depaul. This game drove me to the point of screaming to the top of my lungs “why”. Part of me thinks I’m missing a really really good opportunity for MKE here, but I’m going to hope for yet again a puzzling line on Saturday when Loyola CHI comes in with revenge. I’ll hope that Depaul plays their best game of the year tonight which adds value on Saturday. Ok, Done with the rant. Ok, one more thing. If Boyle was showing flashes of his past self then I’d play this in a heartbeat, but he’s taken a step back with the injury he incurred last year. Done. Gotta move on. Drexel can’t play a fast pace and score. They rely on the half-court setting and have for years. Against the bigger schools that like to run in past years they haven’t scored above 60 and a majority of those games have come in the 40’s. This really should be an eye-opener for Drexel assuming Louisville shows up to take care of business. Drexel’s loss of the only PG on the roster Harris due to robbery and gun possession in the summer hasn’t really showed an effect on the team quite yet b/c the entire year has been played in the half-court. This team was 300+ in offensive efficiency last year, and this year they’re at or near 100. They’ve hit their ceiling, the # should drop tremendously and with that, you find value...

Santa Clara and Pacific have played enough meetings over the years, a majority of them close, to be familiar with each other. I actually project Santa Clara to make some noise in the WCC so I’m going to take a shot here even out of conference with a bit of value. Pacific has been far from impressive even in it’s wins and neither has Santa Clara. The difference, which might actually be a problem for Santa Clara, is that they have so many experienced people to play that their rotation is almost sometimes too big and they lack chemistry. There is eight players on the roster who started at least ten games last year (primarily due to injuries at just about every position). One of those injuries was to Kevin Foster, a major part of this team. The really odd part is that Santa Clara lost by 27 with him on the court in one of last year’s meetings, and won without him by a point in the other meeting. The one thing going in Santa Clara’s favor here is that they’ll be fresh the entire game with the amount of people they play on a given night, which is exactly what you need to combat Pacific’s style of offense that wears you down on a consistent basis. Pacific is another one of those slow it down style of teams who like to wear your defense down which leads to easy buckets, but as I stated, they’ve been terribly inefficient. Santa Clara is really the type of team that Pacific’s slow style isn’t really going to bother. They play enough people, and those people know their roles. Their bigs block shots well, they rebound well, and they draw fouls well. Their wings aside from Foster are in the game to penetrate and kick it back out or penetrate and draw a foul. The players know their roles and they are consistent with it. I am a little worried about a non-existent offensive post presence being a factor against Pacific, but I would be more worried if I was backing a squad that consistently shoots three-pointers and doesn’t get to the hoop and draw fouls, which goes against the fundamentals of Santa Clara’s makeup. If they settle for three’s, which they have shown very little of outside Foster, they don’t have a chance here. If they continue to get to the line, and continue to stick to their style of play, they have a good shot. They’re coming off their first road win here so a little confidence should help. Sam Willard will get his points in the paint, but this group of guards from Santa Clara can defend, and defend well. It’s a pretty big game for both teams, and a lot will be learned for the rest of the year with this game. I think the 11 is short on Oakland. Tennessee matches up really well. If I had to pick one game out of the schedule for the year with Oakland that they don’t match up well with, it’s this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if they hang close, it’s just a bad matchup for them. If they can play into the 140’s with defensive Purdue, Wright State, and Michigan State, then they can sure play into the 150’s with Tennessee here, right? I don’t think so. Tennessee’s a different breed than all those teams and I think Oakland struggles to score against a horrendous matchup against a team who brings the same length they do. Take away Oakland’s advantage here and they struggle. It’s a defensive nightmare for both teams. Both like to push, both like to play up-tempo, so it’s a bit scary, but strength for strength, these teams are identical. Win or lose, still my team come March (as long as they don’t draw Tennessee first round). Liked way too much today, avoid the bloodbath.

GL

Those aren't my lines, those are just what I think the line will be released at. Over analyzing probably the right term to describe. Just going on an extreme guess here, but I can't imagine Wisconsin MKE's trip home from South Dakota on Saturday/Sunday with the storm in the Midwest was a fun one. Just a guess, couldn't really find anything on it.