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Posted: #651
Lavin and SJU up 20 second half vs Fordham takes off the press and allows them back in the game to eventually upset SJU by three
 
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Posted: #652
nropp11 think about  UNC-Wilmington  +2 ? there undefeated at home thought about pulling trigger any insight
 
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Posted: #653
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

12/19 Results: Hit Eastern (despite not knowing of the flu that has impacted what seems like the entire team). Sometimes you get lucky, that was probably one of them. Invested quite a bit in a game that I'd had circled for a few weeks. Still covered despite the absence of three key players, so the value was incredible. Missed a good spot with mirror identities in SEMO and Jacksonville State running and gunning with the JUCO game to easily go over the posted total of 124? Clearly, a missed spot. Another Ohio Valley game saw Morehead recently beating Murray State, looking ahead to Austin Peay and losing a game that they probably shouldn't have to Tenny State. They'll show up in this week's conference roady at Austin Peay. Other than that, Illinois lost to UIC Saturday. Pretty embarrassing loss. 

Sides: 27-19, +12.00
Totals: 15-9, +3.80
DNP: 31-24


12/20 Notes: Illinois State hasn’t played in over a week, which could be well-needed for a team with zero identity. Coming into the year, Jankovich wanted to get up and down some more, and that hasn’t worked as they are one of the slower teams in the country, primarily bc they lack some scorers on offense (and they have played 8 straight to the under). UNC-Wilmington I have noted on multiple times as having Peterson come in here and run a great offense. He turned both offenses around at Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State in his first season, and he’s doing it here as well. Knowing Jankovich, the time off allowed him to put some new stuff in, and probably put a focus on getting more attempts at the basketball with the whole quality over quantity thing here. Assuming UNC-Wilmington is able to score as it has been, probably a good spot for ISU to end that under-streak. ValpoEMU is a part of the Lou Henson Tournament, which takes place in Rochester MI, the home of Oakland University. Valpo should bounce back after an embarrassing loss to Toledo, and should have a big advantage at the guard position, as EMU has no presence outside of post-man Bowdry. Not interested in DavidsonSt. John’s. Same for a few other games. Nevada lacks offense, but Portland State has one of the worst defenses in the country and they play a decent pace.  Both Western Illinois and Creighton neither have good offenses from the guard position. Creighton might have one of the best inside presences in the Valley when you look at their post’s, especially with the addition of Echenique who transferred from Rutgers I believe and just became eligible in Creighton’s last game. Creighton fills in the rest with not-so good shooters and some decent ballhandlers, and McDermott as I have alluded to before doesn’t really like to play many people. Because of the inside presence they have, I expect the tempo of their offense to slow down a bit more to get these big guys involved together, and they will be a much better defensive squad. This showed in their last game as they only attempted 48 shots played a solid defensive game allowing 60 points, even on 50% shooting from three-point line. Teams will have to look to the outside rather than go inside on these shot-blocking trees. Western Illinois is coached by Jim Molinari, who should be pretty familiar with the style of play Creighton and MVC teams bring to the table. He is the former coach at Bradley. Like Creighton, they really aren’t strong at scoring. They take pride in defending teams and slowing teams down (Missouri scored 66 on them, Wyoming – 64, only two teams have scored over 70 on them this year). Molinari also has experience against McDermott when Molinari was at the helm and an assistant at Minnesota when they would play Iowa State. Neither of these teams really have found their swagger on the offensive end, and both want to slow it down to take their times and get the best shot each trip down the court. WIU’s offense doesn’t scare me in the least bit, and their bigs should be able to defend Creighton decent on the inside. It should be a really slow game from a matchup standpoint. One thing to note, Summit Defensive player of the year in Ceola Clark might not play tonight as he has missed the last three games with a toe injury. If he plays, that’s great and helps, if he doesn’t, it really shouldn’t affect their defense on the outside. Playing the under bc of the defensive presence on the inside here. Two good teams who are really struggling on the offensive end and working in some new kinks which helps this from a defensive standpoint. There are much better games Tuesday, a ton of Ohio Valley matchups.

Bets
Western Illinois/Creighton Under 125.5 (1 Unit)

DNP: Illinois State/UNC Wilmington Over 127 

GL


Great stuff as always NRopp. I looked closely at the WIll-Creighton game. I don't know if it's public, but Western Ill lost their best defensive presence in the middle, 6'10" David Gebru for the season last game which may hurt them against Creighton's solid frontline. In addition I confirmed that Clark, the Defensive Player of the Year in the Summit last year, is extremely doubtful with a toe injury. Western Ill is a bit shorthanded tonight and will have to give more minutes to players who do not ordinarily play a lot. So defensively they may not be as stout, but offensively, they might be a bit more challenged. They actually are an aggressive team at attacking the basket, ranked 8th nationally in FTA/FGA but they are a bad FT shooting team. They do shoot the 3 ball well and Creighton's perimeter defense isn't too strong. My only other concern on the total is if McDermott learns how to coach (I think he is absolutely horrible), he would put Echenique and Lawson and his son together on the frotnline, which would be far and away the best frontline the MVC has to offer. Lawson had 30 and 18 two games back and I read was under the weather and barely practiced last week and it showed on Saturday but he and Echenique together could score a ton of easy baskets tonight if they are on the court at the same time. Surprisingly, Coach McDermott didn't play them together for even a second on Saturday.

I wish Gebru and Clark were playing for Western Ill as I would feel better about the UNDER but I am going to sit it out and root for you to bring home the bacon as I have concerns about them defensively tonight.

Best of luck.
 
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Posted: #656

Quote Originally Posted by miniman44444:

hey nropp i no u said u not interested in the davidson/st johns game, but i feel like davidson getting +9 is a great line to pick them anything on tht?

 
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Posted: #657

Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:



Great stuff as always NRopp. I looked closely at the WIll-Creighton game. I don't know if it's public, but Western Ill lost their best defensive presence in the middle, 6'10" David Gebru for the season last game which may hurt them against Creighton's solid frontline. In addition I confirmed that Clark, the Defensive Player of the Year in the Summit last year, is extremely doubtful with a toe injury. Western Ill is a bit shorthanded tonight and will have to give more minutes to players who do not ordinarily play a lot. So defensively they may not be as stout, but offensively, they might be a bit more challenged. They actually are an aggressive team at attacking the basket, ranked 8th nationally in FTA/FGA but they are a bad FT shooting team. They do shoot the 3 ball well and Creighton's perimeter defense isn't too strong. My only other concern on the total is if McDermott learns how to coach (I think he is absolutely horrible), he would put Echenique and Lawson and his son together on the frotnline, which would be far and away the best frontline the MVC has to offer. Lawson had 30 and 18 two games back and I read was under the weather and barely practiced last week and it showed on Saturday but he and Echenique together could score a ton of easy baskets tonight if they are on the court at the same time. Surprisingly, Coach McDermott didn't play them together for even a second on Saturday.

I wish Gebru and Clark were playing for Western Ill as I would feel better about the UNDER but I am going to sit it out and root for you to bring home the bacon as I have concerns about them defensively tonight.

Best of luck.

 

Regardless Games. Very good post. And I only thought you could win pick sixes.

 
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Posted: #658
12/20 Results: Florida loses to Jacksonville. Northwestern continues to shoot the ball extremely well. Illinois State/UNC Wilmington game was ugly. Northern Colorado is getting worse as they continue the long road trip, they still have three more on the road to play. And Nevada’s now scored three straight games in the 70’s, but against awful defenses, and they go to Washington tomorrow night.

Sides: 27-19, +12.00
Totals: 16-9, +4.80
DNP: 31-25


12/21 Conference Notes: Five games in the Ohio Valley. Not going to touch Murray State/Tenny Martin or SEMO/Tenn Tech. Will focus on the other three games in the OVC. Eastern Kentucky was a team last year that took care of the ball, shot the three-ball extremely effective, and played a slow pace. With a few roster spots departed, their offense hasn’t been able to duplicate last year’s numbers despite playing a slow pace yet again. They haven’t played all that tough of a schedule and they are 1-2 in the conference with both of those losses coming to Austin Peay and Murray State. This is also their third game of a five game road trip, but they’re off for ten days after tonight’s game. They have also not won a road game, but those road games featured better all-around guard play and better scoring teams in Peay, Minnesota, and Loyola CHI. While I mentioned they are no longer an effective three-point shooting team, they still have the options to do so, and in light of being in-effective from long distance, they have become more accustomed to getting to the hoop this year and drawing contact within the principles of a Princeton-style offense. Neubauer has recruited some more slash-type players than in past years, so consider that a good thing when shots aren’t falling from the outside. They’ll mix it up between a man and a 1-3-1 zone at times, which I fully expect them to do tonight. Tennessee State is playing slower than in past years and a lot of that has to do with bringing in a bunch of recruits after losing a majority of their minutes last year. The defense was awful last year, and it’s actually worse this year. This Tennessee State team looks to press at every opportunity, primarily b/c they can’t defend at all in the half-court and haven’t been able to in years. They get teams to turn the ball over, thus leading to easy baskets and that’s what this team is built around. They are coming off a very good victory over Morehead State as I had previously mentioned in yesterday’s thread, and it’s their only decent win all year. Eastern Kentucky matches up real well with much taller guards, and big men who can bring out Tennessee State’s big men and make them guard the perimeter, which I fully expect to be a big advantage in this game with the Princeton principle style offense, especially against a weak zone which TSU brings to the table. In three conference games, opponents have put up 177 shots to TSU’s 143. Eastern Kentucky should be able to take full advantage of that. Pretty big letdown spot, and a pretty big matchup discrepancy here, along with experience, Stommes should have a big night. I would probably take a look at the under as well. Austin Peay is 3-0 in the conference, but this will be their toughest test to date in Morehead State. I really like Morehead State here to bounce back as they were in look ahead mode with their last loss at TSU. Peay has actually impressed me this year so far. The past few years they have struggled to defend, especially the three-point line and it’s hurt some good talented teams from going further. This year, they’re bucking the trend pretty well which could lead to a pretty good season. Morehead State will be in any conference game with Faried in the paint, but the guards haven’t really shown much,especially going against a pack-it-in zone as Tenny State did last time out. Austin Peay will play a little zone, and probably play quite a bit of it tonight as the footprint for beating Morehead has been unleashed. I still like Morehead despite all of this stuff, the team is so solid defensively and that’s all you need in the OVC. But, the fact keeping me off of them here is going to be the third game of a roadtrip, where the second game featured overtime and all five starters logged 30+ minutes, with Faried logging 40. I can’t really back teams in that spot, but this team should be FOCUSED tonight. I don’t see a line on Eastern Illinois but I would imagine they would be short chalk, even on the road, even with all the injuries and flu bug hitting the team. Probably a good spot to lay off, but I will take a look if I can get some health on player info. Jacksonville State is a team that lacks a real scorer, and their guards aren’t really built to shoot the three. They are not good defensively either.  They can’t shoot, they can’t defend, and they can’t shoot free throws well. If Laser plays, then Eastern has the two best guards on the court, with pretty good matchup advantages against a weak defense.

Offer Non-Conference notes after a while…

Bets
Eastern Kentucky +2 (3 Units)

DNP: Eastern Kentucky/Tenny State Under 138.5, Morehead State +2.5

GL
 
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BOL
 
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Posted: #660
outstanding work nropp
 
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Posted: #661

I'm liking morehead today....they have the best player on the court with faried and peay just lost campbell(2nd leading scorer) to a knee.

GL NROPP

 
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Posted: #662
Goodluck tonight Nropp. If you don't mind me asking, what's your thoughts on UNLV and K-state? You faded Kstate the last game out, you think they will step up and cover the short number against UNLV or take another beating?
 
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Posted: #663
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

12/20 Results: Florida loses to Jacksonville. Northwestern continues to shoot the ball extremely well. Illinois State/UNC Wilmington game was ugly. Northern Colorado is getting worse as they continue the long road trip, they still have three more on the road to play. And Nevada’s now scored three straight games in the 70’s, but against awful defenses, and they go to Washington tomorrow night.

Sides: 27-19, +12.00
Totals: 16-9, +4.80
DNP: 31-25


12/21 Conference Notes: Five games in the Ohio Valley. Not going to touch Murray State/Tenny Martin or SEMO/Tenn Tech. Will focus on the other three games in the OVC. Eastern Kentucky was a team last year that took care of the ball, shot the three-ball extremely effective, and played a slow pace. With a few roster spots departed, their offense hasn’t been able to duplicate last year’s numbers despite playing a slow pace yet again. They haven’t played all that tough of a schedule and they are 1-2 in the conference with both of those losses coming to Austin Peay and Murray State. This is also their third game of a five game road trip, but they’re off for ten days after tonight’s game. They have also not won a road game, but those road games featured better all-around guard play and better scoring teams in Peay, Minnesota, and Loyola CHI. While I mentioned they are no longer an effective three-point shooting team, they still have the options to do so, and in light of being in-effective from long distance, they have become more accustomed to getting to the hoop this year and drawing contact within the principles of a Princeton-style offense. Neubauer has recruited some more slash-type players than in past years, so consider that a good thing when shots aren’t falling from the outside. They’ll mix it up between a man and a 1-3-1 zone at times, which I fully expect them to do tonight. Tennessee State is playing slower than in past years and a lot of that has to do with bringing in a bunch of recruits after losing a majority of their minutes last year. The defense was awful last year, and it’s actually worse this year. This Tennessee State team looks to press at every opportunity, primarily b/c they can’t defend at all in the half-court and haven’t been able to in years. They get teams to turn the ball over, thus leading to easy baskets and that’s what this team is built around. They are coming off a very good victory over Morehead State as I had previously mentioned in yesterday’s thread, and it’s their only decent win all year. Eastern Kentucky matches up real well with much taller guards, and big men who can bring out Tennessee State’s big men and make them guard the perimeter, which I fully expect to be a big advantage in this game with the Princeton principle style offense, especially against a weak zone which TSU brings to the table. In three conference games, opponents have put up 177 shots to TSU’s 143. Eastern Kentucky should be able to take full advantage of that. Pretty big letdown spot, and a pretty big matchup discrepancy here, along with experience, Stommes should have a big night. I would probably take a look at the under as well. Austin Peay is 3-0 in the conference, but this will be their toughest test to date in Morehead State. I really like Morehead State here to bounce back as they were in look ahead mode with their last loss at TSU. Peay has actually impressed me this year so far. The past few years they have struggled to defend, especially the three-point line and it’s hurt some good talented teams from going further. This year, they’re bucking the trend pretty well which could lead to a pretty good season. Morehead State will be in any conference game with Faried in the paint, but the guards haven’t really shown much,especially going against a pack-it-in zone as Tenny State did last time out. Austin Peay will play a little zone, and probably play quite a bit of it tonight as the footprint for beating Morehead has been unleashed. I still like Morehead despite all of this stuff, the team is so solid defensively and that’s all you need in the OVC. But, the fact keeping me off of them here is going to be the third game of a roadtrip, where the second game featured overtime and all five starters logged 30+ minutes, with Faried logging 40. I can’t really back teams in that spot, but this team should be FOCUSED tonight. I don’t see a line on Eastern Illinois but I would imagine they would be short chalk, even on the road, even with all the injuries and flu bug hitting the team. Probably a good spot to lay off, but I will take a look if I can get some health on player info. Jacksonville State is a team that lacks a real scorer, and their guards aren’t really built to shoot the three. They are not good defensively either.  They can’t shoot, they can’t defend, and they can’t shoot free throws well. If Laser plays, then Eastern has the two best guards on the court, with pretty good matchup advantages against a weak defense.

Offer Non-Conference notes after a while…

Bets
Eastern Kentucky +2 (3 Units)

DNP: Eastern Kentucky/Tenny State Under 138.5, Morehead State +2.5

GL

Carefully keeping on the forums my best friend !

 
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Posted: #664
Hey NR! Great call on the Creighton last night.

Laser is out for Eastern Ill tonight.

Pratl missed the last game due to disciplinarian reasons and is expected back tonight.
 
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Matt Fargo

Eastern Kentucky vs. Tennessee State    
Play: Eastern Kentucky +2

Eastern Kentucky won 20 games last season including 11 in the conference and with three starters back, expectations are high once again. The Colonels were not expected to have such a good season last year but the emergence of forward Justin Stommes turned them into a tough out. They are coming off a blowout loss at Austin Peay on Saturday, losing by 27 points to drop to 0-3 on the road. The quick turnaround is a big benefit here and at 1-2, this is turning into a big game. Tennessee St. meanwhile is coming off a win Sunday over Morehead St. in overtime to make it four straight wins following a five-game losing streak. It was a big home underdog in that game as it took out Morehead St., one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference and that spells letdown here. The Tigers were picked to finish middle of the pack in the OVC so they have been playing above their heads so far. I do not see that continuing. Part of the reason is the shooting differentials which will swing back around here. Tennessee St. shot an improbable 61.9 percent in the second half against the Eagles to force the overtime and eventual win while Eastern Kentucky had a miserable night from long range against Austin Peay as it went 3-18 (16.7 percent) from behind the arc, marking the team’s worst three-point shooting percentage since shooting 13.0 percent (3-23) in a loss at Tennessee Tech in 2007. Eastern Kentucky also falls into two solid situations. Play against home favorites or picks that are coming off a home conference win going up against an opponent coming off a road loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 94-46 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, play on underdogs that are coming off a road loss scoring less than 60 points, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Eastern Kentucky Colonels
 
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Matt Fargo

Eastern Kentucky vs. Tennessee State    
Play: Eastern Kentucky +2

Eastern Kentucky won 20 games last season including 11 in the conference and with three starters back, expectations are high once again. The Colonels were not expected to have such a good season last year but the emergence of forward Justin Stommes turned them into a tough out. They are coming off a blowout loss at Austin Peay on Saturday, losing by 27 points to drop to 0-3 on the road. The quick turnaround is a big benefit here and at 1-2, this is turning into a big game. Tennessee St. meanwhile is coming off a win Sunday over Morehead St. in overtime to make it four straight wins following a five-game losing streak. It was a big home underdog in that game as it took out Morehead St., one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference and that spells letdown here. The Tigers were picked to finish middle of the pack in the OVC so they have been playing above their heads so far. I do not see that continuing. Part of the reason is the shooting differentials which will swing back around here. Tennessee St. shot an improbable 61.9 percent in the second half against the Eagles to force the overtime and eventual win while Eastern Kentucky had a miserable night from long range against Austin Peay as it went 3-18 (16.7 percent) from behind the arc, marking the team’s worst three-point shooting percentage since shooting 13.0 percent (3-23) in a loss at Tennessee Tech in 2007. Eastern Kentucky also falls into two solid situations. Play against home favorites or picks that are coming off a home conference win going up against an opponent coming off a road loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 94-46 ATS (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, play on underdogs that are coming off a road loss scoring less than 60 points, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Eastern Kentucky Colonels
 
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???
 
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Start your own Thread Matt Fargo.
 
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It's an opinion from a professional handicapper (Matt Fargo) to go with nropps pick
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Terps1010:

It's an opinion from a professional handicapper (Matt Fargo) to go with nropps pick



 
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Posted: #672
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:

Hey NR! Great call on the Creighton last night.

Laser is out for Eastern Ill tonight.

Pratl missed the last game due to disciplinarian reasons and is expected back tonight.
He's been upgraded to probable from what I see GH
 
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Nropps keep up the good work always enjoy your write ups
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Terps1010:

It's an opinion from a professional handicapper (Matt Fargo) to go with nropps pick


who give a flying fuck about a tout............
 
 
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Posted: #675

Quote Originally Posted by moosehunter:



who give a flying fuck about a tout............

As a general rule, I'd rather know more about a game than less.  Some tout's random pick of "UNLV +3.5" is meaningless.  A paragraph of information regarding a pick, though, is something I'm happy to have.

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