I am assuming your looking at all players and not the team experts or top 10%...I was tracking for a while and was surprised how well team experts did. Your right though and you can do the same in NFL Football along with College Foots as well.
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I am assuming your looking at all players and not the team experts or top 10%...I was tracking for a while and was surprised how well team experts did. Your right though and you can do the same in NFL Football along with College Foots as well.
I am assuming your looking at all players and not the team experts or top 10%...I was tracking for a while and was surprised how well team experts did. Your right though and you can do the same in NFL Football along with College Foots as well.
Pretty sure he's talking about actual real public bet percentages, not the covers.com consensus.
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Quote Originally Posted by Raider63:
I am assuming your looking at all players and not the team experts or top 10%...I was tracking for a while and was surprised how well team experts did. Your right though and you can do the same in NFL Football along with College Foots as well.
Pretty sure he's talking about actual real public bet percentages, not the covers.com consensus.
You can get everything you need from the "scores and matchups" section (under NCAAB) here at Covers High. If all you ever did was find the most popular play of the day, play a unit against it and a half-unit on the ML for any dog, you'd do very well. There are other places where you can get allegedly more accurate information, but knowing that 70% of a bunch of guys not betting real money like a side is good enough for me.
Look at Pitt ML tonight (I have +650). If both team play like they played last time out, the 12 point dog will win by 20. Pitt's always a tough match-up for Virginia because of their excellent interior passing, CavaHoos have looked lost without Anderson both games without him.
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You can get everything you need from the "scores and matchups" section (under NCAAB) here at Covers High. If all you ever did was find the most popular play of the day, play a unit against it and a half-unit on the ML for any dog, you'd do very well. There are other places where you can get allegedly more accurate information, but knowing that 70% of a bunch of guys not betting real money like a side is good enough for me.
Look at Pitt ML tonight (I have +650). If both team play like they played last time out, the 12 point dog will win by 20. Pitt's always a tough match-up for Virginia because of their excellent interior passing, CavaHoos have looked lost without Anderson both games without him.
Another frequent site of public bloodbaths are popular public dogs. There are two of those tonight - Pitt and Butler, but they are of rather different stripe. Pitt has 68% of the Wagerline fake bettors on board, but that includes people who have it at 13, 12.5, 12 and the current 11,5. Butler, on the other hand, is getting 70% of the fake Wagerline action, but that line has actualy crept toward Creighton. I still think the Pitt line is nuts, and have played the Panthers a couple of different ways. Might have to throw something on Creighton just on principle. Good luck everyone.
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Another frequent site of public bloodbaths are popular public dogs. There are two of those tonight - Pitt and Butler, but they are of rather different stripe. Pitt has 68% of the Wagerline fake bettors on board, but that includes people who have it at 13, 12.5, 12 and the current 11,5. Butler, on the other hand, is getting 70% of the fake Wagerline action, but that line has actualy crept toward Creighton. I still think the Pitt line is nuts, and have played the Panthers a couple of different ways. Might have to throw something on Creighton just on principle. Good luck everyone.
I love it man. I never place bet on the same as the majority of the %, always with the minority. I think when you couple that with the line movement as well, when the line movement is away from the%(reverse line movement) you have yourself a good bet.
Although, there was a time when these types of bets were the only bets I placed, and it does very well, though vegas seems to even itself out and you can catch a bad stretch also. With that said, I agree that if I had to place a bet blindly with a gun to my head Id bet against the %.
I assume you will be on WVU and Butler tonight then, and are currently on Boston College?
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I love it man. I never place bet on the same as the majority of the %, always with the minority. I think when you couple that with the line movement as well, when the line movement is away from the%(reverse line movement) you have yourself a good bet.
Although, there was a time when these types of bets were the only bets I placed, and it does very well, though vegas seems to even itself out and you can catch a bad stretch also. With that said, I agree that if I had to place a bet blindly with a gun to my head Id bet against the %.
I assume you will be on WVU and Butler tonight then, and are currently on Boston College?
Another frequent site of public bloodbaths are popular public dogs. There are two of those tonight - Pitt and Butler, but they are of rather different stripe. Pitt has 68% of the Wagerline fake bettors on board, but that includes people who have it at 13, 12.5, 12 and the current 11,5. Butler, on the other hand, is getting 70% of the fake Wagerline action, but that line has actualy crept toward Creighton. I still think the Pitt line is nuts, and have played the Panthers a couple of different ways. Might have to throw something on Creighton just on principle. Good luck everyone.
Butler is favored
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Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
Another frequent site of public bloodbaths are popular public dogs. There are two of those tonight - Pitt and Butler, but they are of rather different stripe. Pitt has 68% of the Wagerline fake bettors on board, but that includes people who have it at 13, 12.5, 12 and the current 11,5. Butler, on the other hand, is getting 70% of the fake Wagerline action, but that line has actualy crept toward Creighton. I still think the Pitt line is nuts, and have played the Panthers a couple of different ways. Might have to throw something on Creighton just on principle. Good luck everyone.
If you look at yesterday(Sunday) betting on the side with 35% of money would have lost you money.
Houston +2.5 - Lost by Two = Winner
WI-MIL +5.5 - Lost by 7 = Loser
Niagara +6.5 - Lost by 9 = Loser
Fordham +2 - Won by 14 = Winner
Northwestern +6.5 - Won by 5 = Winner
MO St +10.5 - Lost by 11 = Loser
Colorado +1 - Won by 6 = Winner
Quinnipiac +1 - Lost by 2 = Loser
Buck pk - Won by 3 = Winner
Nebraska +7.5 - Lost by 12 = Loser
Minnesota +3.5 - Lost by 19 = Loser
Utah -17.5 - Won by 15 = Loser
5-7 Overall
So, combine that with Saturday and your 11-9 55%, so your still up $ if every bet was the same unit. And I believe in the long run you'll win or not loser very much. BUT, its not that easy, or plenty of people would already be doing it getting rich way before you.
Unless there's something about just doing it on Saturday that I dont know about ? ?
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If you look at yesterday(Sunday) betting on the side with 35% of money would have lost you money.
Houston +2.5 - Lost by Two = Winner
WI-MIL +5.5 - Lost by 7 = Loser
Niagara +6.5 - Lost by 9 = Loser
Fordham +2 - Won by 14 = Winner
Northwestern +6.5 - Won by 5 = Winner
MO St +10.5 - Lost by 11 = Loser
Colorado +1 - Won by 6 = Winner
Quinnipiac +1 - Lost by 2 = Loser
Buck pk - Won by 3 = Winner
Nebraska +7.5 - Lost by 12 = Loser
Minnesota +3.5 - Lost by 19 = Loser
Utah -17.5 - Won by 15 = Loser
5-7 Overall
So, combine that with Saturday and your 11-9 55%, so your still up $ if every bet was the same unit. And I believe in the long run you'll win or not loser very much. BUT, its not that easy, or plenty of people would already be doing it getting rich way before you.
Unless there's something about just doing it on Saturday that I dont know about ? ?
Saturday I assume is probably the most heavily bet day by the public then making being on a side of 35% or less more valuable than a regular week day. That could be it and makes sense.
Maine, what you think?
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Saturday I assume is probably the most heavily bet day by the public then making being on a side of 35% or less more valuable than a regular week day. That could be it and makes sense.
Saturday I assume is probably the most heavily bet day by the public then making being on a side of 35% or less more valuable than a regular week day. That could be it and makes sense.
Maine, what you think?
I would agree with this 100%
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Quote Originally Posted by genosteaks05:
Saturday I assume is probably the most heavily bet day by the public then making being on a side of 35% or less more valuable than a regular week day. That could be it and makes sense.
I have tried using a couple of different sites with power ratings with the idea of finding point spreads that seem a bit over reacted one way or the other. I have used the TeamRanking site and lately the Statfox power ratings site. Based on the power ratings of Statfox Butler should be minus six points tonight. They are 3-3.5 below this so if their power ratings are accurate then that is where the value seems to be imo.
Are there other sites that any of you use that you think are more accurate of do a better job overall of rating the teams and what the point differentials should be based on how they have played up to that point in time?
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I have tried using a couple of different sites with power ratings with the idea of finding point spreads that seem a bit over reacted one way or the other. I have used the TeamRanking site and lately the Statfox power ratings site. Based on the power ratings of Statfox Butler should be minus six points tonight. They are 3-3.5 below this so if their power ratings are accurate then that is where the value seems to be imo.
Are there other sites that any of you use that you think are more accurate of do a better job overall of rating the teams and what the point differentials should be based on how they have played up to that point in time?
Comon Main you're a vet here bud, you know that the "fading the public" venture always ends up somewhere near the 50% mark. But what I am curious is your comment about just doing it on Saturdays. Have you tracked this for a bit on only Saturdays? Or is this a one day sample?
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Comon Main you're a vet here bud, you know that the "fading the public" venture always ends up somewhere near the 50% mark. But what I am curious is your comment about just doing it on Saturdays. Have you tracked this for a bit on only Saturdays? Or is this a one day sample?
the late line movement is the key....go opposite of the movement 75 percent winners....for example team go from plus 2 plus 3...late movement jump on the plus 3.....
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the late line movement is the key....go opposite of the movement 75 percent winners....for example team go from plus 2 plus 3...late movement jump on the plus 3.....
Yesterday there were eight teams which had 35% of the action or less on Wagerline:
Marshall +4
Montana State +5
Illinois State +5
Princeton +1.5
Morehead +6.5
Fresno +3.5
SEMO +7
Vandy +4
As usual, the most public plays on a big board got anihilated.
Marshall +4 – outright by 5
Montana State +5 - outright by 2 (27% of the public were backing the Bobcats)
Illinois State +5 – lost by 6
Princeton +1.5 – lost by 7
Morehead +6.5 – lost by 1
Fresno +3.5 – outright by 6
SEMO +7 – lost by 2 (in OT)
Vandy +4 – outright by 8
6-2 ATS (two points away from 7-1) with 4 outright dog winners (and another that lost in OT).
Just do this every Saturday, and you'll wind up with a new kitchen.
Good work bud ... Just went back to Saturday with all th Percentages ... All Favorites over the 60 % mark were 9-13 ATS ..so that under 35% number for the dog is a key .. like you said 7 - 2 ATS .. In addition ... I noticed any Dog Percentage that was 60 % or more covered ..2 - 0 ... Not much ..but thought I'd add ... The favorites in the 50 - 59 % range were 22-28 ATS ...
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Quote Originally Posted by MaineRoad:
Yesterday there were eight teams which had 35% of the action or less on Wagerline:
Marshall +4
Montana State +5
Illinois State +5
Princeton +1.5
Morehead +6.5
Fresno +3.5
SEMO +7
Vandy +4
As usual, the most public plays on a big board got anihilated.
Marshall +4 – outright by 5
Montana State +5 - outright by 2 (27% of the public were backing the Bobcats)
Illinois State +5 – lost by 6
Princeton +1.5 – lost by 7
Morehead +6.5 – lost by 1
Fresno +3.5 – outright by 6
SEMO +7 – lost by 2 (in OT)
Vandy +4 – outright by 8
6-2 ATS (two points away from 7-1) with 4 outright dog winners (and another that lost in OT).
Just do this every Saturday, and you'll wind up with a new kitchen.
Good work bud ... Just went back to Saturday with all th Percentages ... All Favorites over the 60 % mark were 9-13 ATS ..so that under 35% number for the dog is a key .. like you said 7 - 2 ATS .. In addition ... I noticed any Dog Percentage that was 60 % or more covered ..2 - 0 ... Not much ..but thought I'd add ... The favorites in the 50 - 59 % range were 22-28 ATS ...
I use a different source for my "public" %, but been tracking this every day for the past week+. I use any game 39% or lower. Since I have been tracking, that record is 133-126 (51.35%).
So what I have tried to do is break it down even further, and track how those teams do when they are home or away, and even further by how many points they get.
Working better for me in the NBA than NCAA, but still tweaking with it some.
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I use a different source for my "public" %, but been tracking this every day for the past week+. I use any game 39% or lower. Since I have been tracking, that record is 133-126 (51.35%).
So what I have tried to do is break it down even further, and track how those teams do when they are home or away, and even further by how many points they get.
Working better for me in the NBA than NCAA, but still tweaking with it some.
Comon Main you're a vet here bud, you know that the "fading the public" venture always ends up somewhere near the 50% mark. But what I am curious is your comment about just doing it on Saturdays. Have you tracked this for a bit on only Saturdays? Or is this a one day sample?
It's pretty common sense that there is the most action on Saturdays. That is the day where linemakers will be most keen to not make "mistakes"... also I don't understand why people always ask for historical records when it comes to betting against the public plays...
This is nothing against you or anyone else in this thread but contrarian handicapping is more of an art than a science and it should only be one of many tools used. Every matchup is different...
From my experience the different days of the week matter. Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays tend to be more favorite dominant and Mondays and Fridays tend to be more dogs... just my .02
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Quote Originally Posted by j-walk:
Comon Main you're a vet here bud, you know that the "fading the public" venture always ends up somewhere near the 50% mark. But what I am curious is your comment about just doing it on Saturdays. Have you tracked this for a bit on only Saturdays? Or is this a one day sample?
It's pretty common sense that there is the most action on Saturdays. That is the day where linemakers will be most keen to not make "mistakes"... also I don't understand why people always ask for historical records when it comes to betting against the public plays...
This is nothing against you or anyone else in this thread but contrarian handicapping is more of an art than a science and it should only be one of many tools used. Every matchup is different...
From my experience the different days of the week matter. Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays tend to be more favorite dominant and Mondays and Fridays tend to be more dogs... just my .02
Good work bud ... Just went back to Saturday with all th Percentages ... All Favorites over the 60 % mark were 9-13 ATS ..so that under 35% number for the dog is a key .. like you said 7 - 2 ATS .. In addition ... I noticed any Dog Percentage that was 60 % or more covered ..2 - 0 ... Not much ..but thought I'd add ... The favorites in the 50 - 59 % range were 22-28 ATS ...
It may be worth you time Upside, to go back through other Saturdays and check the numbers. This maybe is a solid Saturday trend (versus a full season each day).
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Quote Originally Posted by Upside:
Good work bud ... Just went back to Saturday with all th Percentages ... All Favorites over the 60 % mark were 9-13 ATS ..so that under 35% number for the dog is a key .. like you said 7 - 2 ATS .. In addition ... I noticed any Dog Percentage that was 60 % or more covered ..2 - 0 ... Not much ..but thought I'd add ... The favorites in the 50 - 59 % range were 22-28 ATS ...
It may be worth you time Upside, to go back through other Saturdays and check the numbers. This maybe is a solid Saturday trend (versus a full season each day).
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