Florida Man - Round of 64

I have an immediate play for Thursday. Have a few more looking at but not there yet. 

Montana 1H +10.5

Wisconsin just came off of 4 games in 4 days, and now heads out to Denver for a Thursday game. If this is an early tip, I see the line dropping a point or two. Wisconsin ran out of gas today, and will have little recovery time before going West. 

Wofford 1H +11.5

Tennessee coming off an exhausting tourney and quick turnaround Thursday. Wofford has a top 70 offense, and have enough punch to hang tight. Not taking full game as Wofford’s D is ranked 231/364, and once Tennessee settles in, they may pull away. Banking on a slower start here for the Vols. 

Memphis +2.5

Memphis has beaten Missouri, UCONN, Mich St, Clemson and Ole Miss this year. The analytics still haven’t liked them all year (currently 54 in KenPom) even with those wins. I’ll take the points here all day. 

@Floridaman

 Very good observation!!!! 4 games in 4 days (Wisky) and NBA complains about playing B2B.  VCU, Tenny and UW (and Michigan and Yale) get the short straw playing on Thursday with travel.  Shocked that Kentucky gets the #4 seed in Milwaukee, but "reward" Wisky as a #3 out in Denver and not in Milwaukee, but shoot 21.2% today as a penalty so I get it.  Let the games begin!

@BillyBadger

Mcneese +7.5

Mcneese hung tough with Alabama and Miss St earlier this year (covering both) and has won 11 straight and 22/23. They had a taste of the tourney last year but fell flat in SLC. With some tourney experience, I like them to turn the table this year and be in this one until the end. KenPom has them as 6 point dogs, which is where I expect this line to close on Thursday. 

Robert Morris +23

Bob Morris has won 10 straight. RM is one of top offensive rebounding teams in country and has an edge there against Bama. They also have an edge in turnovers on O and D in this matchup. A 12:40P start and less than two hours from RM campus. KenPom has RM as 20 point dogs- getting 3 points of value.

Good Luck 

@Sportsfixx

GL FM 

Great write up. I like the McNeese play a lot. 1h dogs looking attractive

@Floridaman

 Also Bob is third or fourth in the nation ATS

@Floridaman

Good luck FM.  

@Fuse

@jbbxtreme

@baseball467

@OO7CRUSHER

@D-Town

UCONN/Oklahoma Over 146.5

Oklahoma +4.5

UCONN has played to 5 straight unders. However; Oklahoma has played to the over in 6 of 7. KenPom has this one at 151 and UConn as 1 point faves.  Some huge value on both of these. UConn adjusted O is 14/364 and Oklahoma is 21/364. All metrics are very similar - both good shooting teams and solid D (OK actually has better defensive efficiency). I have to think the casuals are or will be all over UCONN here as a brand name, champion. OK is battled tested on the neutral court this year - taking down Arizona and Louisville to win Battle 4 Atlantis. As one of the last games on the board, the Over may not take action for a bit, so happy to grab now before we see the movement.

@Floridaman

 Good Luck on all your plays, great insights 

@AtlantaGambler

Appreciate the writeups.

Gives me some early research.

Good luck 

@TJZags598

not sure i buy the fatigue angle....it will be 4-5 days since they played....18-21 year olds should be fine 

BOL FLoridaman! Like em all especially that Uconn/Okla total! Bank em !

@BHS09

 Only 1.5 days at home for WI before going west and early tip Thursday. The fatigue angle is a real thing. 

@Craginator