YTD: 12-3 (1-0 last posted play on 1/3)
Play: Fordham / UMass Over 139
UMass enters tonight’s game as the 6th fastest team in the country, having an adjusted tempo of 73.9 possessions per game. As I’ve previous written in backing two other UMass overs earlier this year, the Minutemen are now in the fourth year of Derek Kellog's dribble drive system and finally have a true point guard in Chaz Williams (Hofstra transfer) who is leading the team in pts and assists (14.8 / 5.8). He has been the catalyst to UMass’ 11-3 start, but more importantly for our purposes, a +5.8 increase in possessions per game versus last year’s team.
UMass, as noted, wants to play fast – and they’ve been successful dictating the pace to every one of their opponents this year. In only 3 of their games have they had less than 71 possessions, and not one of those was lower than 67. Furthermore, they’ve been on a blistering pace since Thanksgiving, averaging 75.9 possessions in those seven games and are coming off a season best 84 possession, 97 point effort vs Central Connecticut State.
On the flip side is Fordham, who admittedly on the surface may not be the best team to play an over on with their struggles on offense. They enter tonight with an adjusted offensive efficiency of .899 points per possession (#309). However, their offense has shown improvement recently and has averaged 1.05 points per possession in their last two contests. This is noteworthy because these two games were both versus above average defenses—Georgia Tech (#68) and Harvard (#39).
Despite Fordham’s struggles to score, they do want to get up and down the floor and come into tonight's game averaging an above average 69.5 possessions per game (#62). This should feed right into the up-tempo style that UMass wants to play. And their recent match-up history would support this opinion as well. In the three games since Kellogg came to UMass, the two teams have played to totals of 159, 154, and 150 – and on average went 12 points over the posted total. Now tonight, as mentioned, Kellogg brings in his fastest paced team by far under his tenure.
Could this go under? Of course it could. Fordham could struggle to get to 60 pts as they have in their previous 6 road games. They are also coming off a huge win vs Harvard and could be due for a letdown. However, I think there is great value in able to back an over that is less than 140 points for a game that will include one of the fastest paced teams in the country. KenPom predicts 76 possessions, and I fully expect to see a very fast, free-flowing style to the game action.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
beast
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