Had a pretty good night last night as I went 4-1-1. I just found out that Bookmaker puts out overnight totals, which is sweet, now I can post these plays in the middle to the night, and not have to make time for it during the day. I hopefully will be able to give some write up's for some of these games later tomorrow like I did last night.
Here's what on tap for tomorrow
Iowa vs. Michigan St. ... Over 124
Virginia Tech vs. Clemson ... Under 143.5
New Orleans vs. FL International ... Under 123.5
Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's ... Under 144.5
Middle Tenn vs. LA Lafayette ... Under 130.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD (8-3-1) 72%
Had a pretty good night last night as I went 4-1-1. I just found out that Bookmaker puts out overnight totals, which is sweet, now I can post these plays in the middle to the night, and not have to make time for it during the day. I hopefully will be able to give some write up's for some of these games later tomorrow like I did last night.
**USC has all kinds of problems as Taj Gibson has pneumonia, Daniel Hackett has the flu, and Leonard Washington has an ankle injury. All of them are questionable. Gibson and Hackett are the stars of the team as both play over 30 minutes a game. Washington is a reserve off the bench. The Trojans play Stanford on Thursday.
** Michigan St.'s star Raymar Morgan is battling a viral infection and is probable for Thursday's game against Iowa.
**Mitch Johnson, Stanford's starting point guard said he will play even with a calf injury in Thursday Pac-10 game against USC.
**No other significant injuries of note
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Here's some injuries of note for tomorrow...
**USC has all kinds of problems as Taj Gibson has pneumonia, Daniel Hackett has the flu, and Leonard Washington has an ankle injury. All of them are questionable. Gibson and Hackett are the stars of the team as both play over 30 minutes a game. Washington is a reserve off the bench. The Trojans play Stanford on Thursday.
** Michigan St.'s star Raymar Morgan is battling a viral infection and is probable for Thursday's game against Iowa.
**Mitch Johnson, Stanford's starting point guard said he will play even with a calf injury in Thursday Pac-10 game against USC.
I look for this game to finish in the 130's somewhere. Iowa is one of the slowest teams in the country pace wise (342nd). Yet if Michigan St. jumps on them and grabs a lead as I expect them to do, then Iowa can't play as slow as they want to for the entire game. They will have to pick up the pace and play a little catch up.
Iowa can torch it from the field if they need to play from behind. They light it up from deep as a team (39%, 17th) and have the 12th best Effective Shooting % in the country. They don't rely on getting their points off of offensive rebounds, which is Michigan St.'s strength on D, so Iowa should get their points. The 3 ball all bodes well for the Over.
Michigan St. is far superior than Iowa athletic wise, and that should only help in there big edge on the offensive boards will they should be getting points all day by slashing to the hoop. If State has the lead late, and it turns to a foul fest, Chris Allen and Kalin Lucas are two of the Big 10's best from the line. Same with Iowa, as they have 3 guys over 84% from the stripe.
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Iowa vs. Michigan St. Analysis
I look for this game to finish in the 130's somewhere. Iowa is one of the slowest teams in the country pace wise (342nd). Yet if Michigan St. jumps on them and grabs a lead as I expect them to do, then Iowa can't play as slow as they want to for the entire game. They will have to pick up the pace and play a little catch up.
Iowa can torch it from the field if they need to play from behind. They light it up from deep as a team (39%, 17th) and have the 12th best Effective Shooting % in the country. They don't rely on getting their points off of offensive rebounds, which is Michigan St.'s strength on D, so Iowa should get their points. The 3 ball all bodes well for the Over.
Michigan St. is far superior than Iowa athletic wise, and that should only help in there big edge on the offensive boards will they should be getting points all day by slashing to the hoop. If State has the lead late, and it turns to a foul fest, Chris Allen and Kalin Lucas are two of the Big 10's best from the line. Same with Iowa, as they have 3 guys over 84% from the stripe.
i like the over on iowa/mich st, but i would have thought gonzaga/st. mary's would go over...
Haha, "would have thought", It still could man, they haven't even played. Just because I like the under doesn't mean it won't go over. I tend not to fall to the public's perception though. Alot of people were on the Duke over last night, as I was on the under. Vice versa on the NC Wilmington game last night. Sometimes I'm wrong though, missed badly on the UAB game. So take it for what its worth here.. but I seem to do very well with totals.
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Quote Originally Posted by ballorbawl:
i like the over on iowa/mich st, but i would have thought gonzaga/st. mary's would go over...
Haha, "would have thought", It still could man, they haven't even played. Just because I like the under doesn't mean it won't go over. I tend not to fall to the public's perception though. Alot of people were on the Duke over last night, as I was on the under. Vice versa on the NC Wilmington game last night. Sometimes I'm wrong though, missed badly on the UAB game. So take it for what its worth here.. but I seem to do very well with totals.
Can't say much about the expected pace of this game, as I think it will end up right about where Vegas expects it to be. What I can say though is that St. Mary's get most of their points from the line (22.5%, 72nd) and that Gonzaga is one of the better teams at not fouling (FRate, 29.6, 45th). Also a home game for Gonzaga, so they will get away with some cheap calls that St. Mary's would get at home. St. Mary's does not shoot well at all from 3. Patty Mills is only average from deep, and Pargo can be a pain defensively and should give him troubles in the first place. If they are going to make up their points they usually get from the line inside the paint, it will be a struggle as Gonzaga has the 2nd best 2pt defense in the country (38.2%).
Gonzaga on offense is very balanced as they can score inside or out. They can light it up from three or turn it into Daye and Heyvelt on the post for easy buckets. I think that Gonzaga's offense will get their points in this game, but beware that St. Mary's defense is very very good too. They have the 3rd best Effective FG% on D, and might hold down that explosive Zaga offense a little more than people think.
Nevertheless I think the Zags win, but as good as offenses and star players as there are in this game, I believe that both of their defenses are just as good if not better than their offenses.
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Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's Analysis
Can't say much about the expected pace of this game, as I think it will end up right about where Vegas expects it to be. What I can say though is that St. Mary's get most of their points from the line (22.5%, 72nd) and that Gonzaga is one of the better teams at not fouling (FRate, 29.6, 45th). Also a home game for Gonzaga, so they will get away with some cheap calls that St. Mary's would get at home. St. Mary's does not shoot well at all from 3. Patty Mills is only average from deep, and Pargo can be a pain defensively and should give him troubles in the first place. If they are going to make up their points they usually get from the line inside the paint, it will be a struggle as Gonzaga has the 2nd best 2pt defense in the country (38.2%).
Gonzaga on offense is very balanced as they can score inside or out. They can light it up from three or turn it into Daye and Heyvelt on the post for easy buckets. I think that Gonzaga's offense will get their points in this game, but beware that St. Mary's defense is very very good too. They have the 3rd best Effective FG% on D, and might hold down that explosive Zaga offense a little more than people think.
Nevertheless I think the Zags win, but as good as offenses and star players as there are in this game, I believe that both of their defenses are just as good if not better than their offenses.
Ugh do I hate the way these two teams play. I just feel like that neither team is that great at shooting the ball. These teams are loaded with 'athletes' who do alot of little things well except shoot. I just think that when two teams get together like that that there are alot of bad and impatient shots taken.
Of all the ways that VTech likes to score, they are most effecient at the line. Clemson is again one of the better teams at not fouling (54th). VTech owns an advantage on the offensive boards and should get points from within the arc, but for as bad as Clemson is at defensive rebounding (290th), somehow they are fantastic defenders inside the paint (50th in 2pt DefFG%), and 8th in blocks, which should limit their chance of scoring inside.
I look for Clemson to try and get looks from 3 and hope to crash the offensive boards on a miss. VTech is pretty good from 3 pt defense though (60th) and also very good on the defensive boards also (60th). If Clemson looks inside VTech has a similar strength as Clemson does at blocking shots. Clemson is not very good from the line either. I think if they are going to score, they need to hit open looks from 3 (and shooting always takes longer to get in a comfort zone in an away environment).
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One last write up before bed tonight...
Virginia Tech vs. Clemson Analysis
Ugh do I hate the way these two teams play. I just feel like that neither team is that great at shooting the ball. These teams are loaded with 'athletes' who do alot of little things well except shoot. I just think that when two teams get together like that that there are alot of bad and impatient shots taken.
Of all the ways that VTech likes to score, they are most effecient at the line. Clemson is again one of the better teams at not fouling (54th). VTech owns an advantage on the offensive boards and should get points from within the arc, but for as bad as Clemson is at defensive rebounding (290th), somehow they are fantastic defenders inside the paint (50th in 2pt DefFG%), and 8th in blocks, which should limit their chance of scoring inside.
I look for Clemson to try and get looks from 3 and hope to crash the offensive boards on a miss. VTech is pretty good from 3 pt defense though (60th) and also very good on the defensive boards also (60th). If Clemson looks inside VTech has a similar strength as Clemson does at blocking shots. Clemson is not very good from the line either. I think if they are going to score, they need to hit open looks from 3 (and shooting always takes longer to get in a comfort zone in an away environment).
is gonzaga still playing alot of zone lately? If so then st mary's will need to knock down some 3's to stay in the game...but 8 points can be a backdoor cover
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is gonzaga still playing alot of zone lately? If so then st mary's will need to knock down some 3's to stay in the game...but 8 points can be a backdoor cover
Middle Tennessee is one of the slowest placed teams in the in the country (294th). As a pretty decent sized favorite in this game playing at home, look for them to sustain a lead into the second half, and control the tempo of the game to their liking by slowing the ball down and running the clock. It really is as simple as that for this game to go under. Neither team shoots really well in general, or shoots well from the line. Middle Tennessee gives up way more than the average amount of points than a team does form the free throw line, but even with them fouling at a high rate, the Cajun's prefer to be on the perimeter, and don't draw to many fouls. When they do get to the line they are atrocious (63%, 305th). Look for a finish in the low 120's.
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Middle Tennesse vs. Louisiana Lafayette Analysis
Middle Tennessee is one of the slowest placed teams in the in the country (294th). As a pretty decent sized favorite in this game playing at home, look for them to sustain a lead into the second half, and control the tempo of the game to their liking by slowing the ball down and running the clock. It really is as simple as that for this game to go under. Neither team shoots really well in general, or shoots well from the line. Middle Tennessee gives up way more than the average amount of points than a team does form the free throw line, but even with them fouling at a high rate, the Cajun's prefer to be on the perimeter, and don't draw to many fouls. When they do get to the line they are atrocious (63%, 305th). Look for a finish in the low 120's.
Nice info on all games Freaky. They they look good to me. I tend to do well on totals also... Check out washington state over 108..last ten games between them have benn 9-1 over 108 pts... together they have an average of 148.7 Pts and against they have 111.8
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Nice info on all games Freaky. They they look good to me. I tend to do well on totals also... Check out washington state over 108..last ten games between them have benn 9-1 over 108 pts... together they have an average of 148.7 Pts and against they have 111.8
I tend not to look into the the history of the two teams, it's more what have you done for me lately. Washington St. has failed to break 108 combined in their last 10 games 3 times with a 109 game, and an OT game that went to 118.
That game is going to be dreadfully slow. Both teams are ranked under 300 in pace. So I can see this game in the 90's, but I can also see it getting up there to, because Washington St.'s strength on D is guarding the paint, not so much the 3 ball, where Arizona St. thrives. So I see just too much uncertainty in this game for a play. I couldn't argue going under or over in this game.
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I tend not to look into the the history of the two teams, it's more what have you done for me lately. Washington St. has failed to break 108 combined in their last 10 games 3 times with a 109 game, and an OT game that went to 118.
That game is going to be dreadfully slow. Both teams are ranked under 300 in pace. So I can see this game in the 90's, but I can also see it getting up there to, because Washington St.'s strength on D is guarding the paint, not so much the 3 ball, where Arizona St. thrives. So I see just too much uncertainty in this game for a play. I couldn't argue going under or over in this game.
These two teams are just horrible on offense. They are just downright bad at everything on offense, expect FL-INT getting to the line which they do well, but build houses from the line when they do (64%, 293rd). Both teams turn the ball over at an alarming rate (281st, 304th), and don't rebound offensively. Fla-Int plays slower than the average pace while NO plays about average. For as bad as they are offensively both teams are quite average defensively, so each should be a little stronger when they are on D. The only player on either team with an Offensive Rating Over 100 on KenPom's player rankings is Micheal Dominguez from Fla-Int. Look for the rims to be bandaged up after the beating they take in this one!
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Last write up of the day...
New Orelans vs. Florida International Analysis
These two teams are just horrible on offense. They are just downright bad at everything on offense, expect FL-INT getting to the line which they do well, but build houses from the line when they do (64%, 293rd). Both teams turn the ball over at an alarming rate (281st, 304th), and don't rebound offensively. Fla-Int plays slower than the average pace while NO plays about average. For as bad as they are offensively both teams are quite average defensively, so each should be a little stronger when they are on D. The only player on either team with an Offensive Rating Over 100 on KenPom's player rankings is Micheal Dominguez from Fla-Int. Look for the rims to be bandaged up after the beating they take in this one!
Just for the hell of it, I am going to start keeping track of a hypothetical bankroll here instead of listign +units, because they might differ from person to person. I just think this is more accurate, even thought it is more individulized.
Start with $3000 tonight
Laying $220 on each game to win $200.
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Just for the hell of it, I am going to start keeping track of a hypothetical bankroll here instead of listign +units, because they might differ from person to person. I just think this is more accurate, even thought it is more individulized.
New Orleans starting point guard Darrian McKinstry is out for tonight's game as he is suspended to conduct detrimental to the team. He was their top 3 ball threat (40%), averaged 11.3 ppg and was their top assist man, led the team in effective shooting, and also steals.
This really makes that under look a lot better.
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***Injury Info****
New Orleans starting point guard Darrian McKinstry is out for tonight's game as he is suspended to conduct detrimental to the team. He was their top 3 ball threat (40%), averaged 11.3 ppg and was their top assist man, led the team in effective shooting, and also steals.
raymor morgan has had the flu for a week. he's been playing but not too great. last game they benched two starters lucas and walton i believe because bad grades. they got into the game just dont remember how much.
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raymor morgan has had the flu for a week. he's been playing but not too great. last game they benched two starters lucas and walton i believe because bad grades. they got into the game just dont remember how much.
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