I think if there is a few things that concern me with Xavier here, it’s probably a lack of depth and going against size. Baylor’s defensive pressure isn’t all that of a concern here with me, and Xavier’s lack of pressure itself is probably a good thing within the match-up and schemes that each want to play. As for Xavier going against size they’re 13-4 this year against top 100 teams in terms of effective height, so that concern gets put to rest. The 13 wins came by an average of 11 points, and some of the losses were some not so great situational spots (going against double revenge in one game, another game on the back end of a three game roady, and the other two losses at Umass and Memphis who lost a combined two games at home this year). In terms of value, Baylor was a whopping favorite of just one point more in their past few games than what I see tonight. I put Xavier in a different echelon of teams aside from South Dakota State and Colorado, and a big reason is because of the guard play of Holloway and Lyons. I think Baylor has a slight advantage in the paint, I’m just not sure how big of a factor it has within the game. When you look at how Xavier defends, they don’t use all that great of pressure, they play up the line, and excel in the half court style with great help defense. These types of teams have tended to give Baylor fits this year b/c of their inability to hammer the basketball into the inside. They have settled for jump shots (some ugly at times), and it’s not really what you want to have against the Xavier defense. Good offensive teams welcome the opportunity to go up against it, but not teams that have little to no outside scoring (they have two wins, four losses). What’s a tad bit shocking is that they haven’t really faced off against a defense that uses little pressure and a ton of help defense. Just six instances this year, so what they’re facing tonight isn’t really the norm for them on the season. Tiny bit of revenge for Xavier as Baylor beat them by five a few years ago (Frease, Holloway, Lyons did play that game). Defensively, if Baylor doesn’t go zone I’m not sure who Heslip guards, but that’s an advantage in itself. If they do go zone, then what’s a better backcourt in the country than Tu and Lyons attacking against it? All in all, just tough for me to go against good, experienced guards catching the points, also noting the really good defensive presence in the post to combat Baylor’s lone advantage in the game.
3* Xavier +6
2* Xavier ML +240
Lean: Kentucky -9.5
It for the night.
GL
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 61-43, +83.35
March Leans: 38-37
I think if there is a few things that concern me with Xavier here, it’s probably a lack of depth and going against size. Baylor’s defensive pressure isn’t all that of a concern here with me, and Xavier’s lack of pressure itself is probably a good thing within the match-up and schemes that each want to play. As for Xavier going against size they’re 13-4 this year against top 100 teams in terms of effective height, so that concern gets put to rest. The 13 wins came by an average of 11 points, and some of the losses were some not so great situational spots (going against double revenge in one game, another game on the back end of a three game roady, and the other two losses at Umass and Memphis who lost a combined two games at home this year). In terms of value, Baylor was a whopping favorite of just one point more in their past few games than what I see tonight. I put Xavier in a different echelon of teams aside from South Dakota State and Colorado, and a big reason is because of the guard play of Holloway and Lyons. I think Baylor has a slight advantage in the paint, I’m just not sure how big of a factor it has within the game. When you look at how Xavier defends, they don’t use all that great of pressure, they play up the line, and excel in the half court style with great help defense. These types of teams have tended to give Baylor fits this year b/c of their inability to hammer the basketball into the inside. They have settled for jump shots (some ugly at times), and it’s not really what you want to have against the Xavier defense. Good offensive teams welcome the opportunity to go up against it, but not teams that have little to no outside scoring (they have two wins, four losses). What’s a tad bit shocking is that they haven’t really faced off against a defense that uses little pressure and a ton of help defense. Just six instances this year, so what they’re facing tonight isn’t really the norm for them on the season. Tiny bit of revenge for Xavier as Baylor beat them by five a few years ago (Frease, Holloway, Lyons did play that game). Defensively, if Baylor doesn’t go zone I’m not sure who Heslip guards, but that’s an advantage in itself. If they do go zone, then what’s a better backcourt in the country than Tu and Lyons attacking against it? All in all, just tough for me to go against good, experienced guards catching the points, also noting the really good defensive presence in the post to combat Baylor’s lone advantage in the game.
I think if there is a few things that concern me with Xavier here, it’s probably a lack of depth and going against size. Baylor’s defensive pressure isn’t all that of a concern here with me, and Xavier’s lack of pressure itself is probably a good thing within the match-up and schemes that each want to play. As for Xavier going against size they’re 13-4 this year against top 100 teams in terms of effective height, so that concern gets put to rest. The 13 wins came by an average of 11 points, and some of the losses were some not so great situational spots (going against double revenge in one game, another game on the back end of a three game roady, and the other two losses at Umass and Memphis who lost a combined two games at home this year). In terms of value, Baylor was a whopping favorite of just one point more in their past few games than what I see tonight. I put Xavier in a different echelon of teams aside from South Dakota State and Colorado, and a big reason is because of the guard play of Holloway and Lyons. I think Baylor has a slight advantage in the paint, I’m just not sure how big of a factor it has within the game. When you look at how Xavier defends, they don’t use all that great of pressure, they play up the line, and excel in the half court style with great help defense. These types of teams have tended to give Baylor fits this year b/c of their inability to hammer the basketball into the inside. They have settled for jump shots (some ugly at times), and it’s not really what you want to have against the Xavier defense. Good offensive teams welcome the opportunity to go up against it, but not teams that have little to no outside scoring (they have two wins, four losses). What’s a tad bit shocking is that they haven’t really faced off against a defense that uses little pressure and a ton of help defense. Just six instances this year, so what they’re facing tonight isn’t really the norm for them on the season. Tiny bit of revenge for Xavier as Baylor beat them by five a few years ago (Frease, Holloway, Lyons did play that game). Defensively, if Baylor doesn’t go zone I’m not sure who Heslip guards, but that’s an advantage in itself. If they do go zone, then what’s a better backcourt in the country than Tu and Lyons attacking against it? All in all, just tough for me to go against good, experienced guards catching the points, also noting the really good defensive presence in the post to combat Baylor’s lone advantage in the game.
3* Xavier +6
2* Xavier ML +240
Lean: Kentucky -9.5
It for the night.
GL
Was REALLY hopping for a break down on NC STATE/ KANSAS..Please...lol
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Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 61-43, +83.35
March Leans: 38-37
I think if there is a few things that concern me with Xavier here, it’s probably a lack of depth and going against size. Baylor’s defensive pressure isn’t all that of a concern here with me, and Xavier’s lack of pressure itself is probably a good thing within the match-up and schemes that each want to play. As for Xavier going against size they’re 13-4 this year against top 100 teams in terms of effective height, so that concern gets put to rest. The 13 wins came by an average of 11 points, and some of the losses were some not so great situational spots (going against double revenge in one game, another game on the back end of a three game roady, and the other two losses at Umass and Memphis who lost a combined two games at home this year). In terms of value, Baylor was a whopping favorite of just one point more in their past few games than what I see tonight. I put Xavier in a different echelon of teams aside from South Dakota State and Colorado, and a big reason is because of the guard play of Holloway and Lyons. I think Baylor has a slight advantage in the paint, I’m just not sure how big of a factor it has within the game. When you look at how Xavier defends, they don’t use all that great of pressure, they play up the line, and excel in the half court style with great help defense. These types of teams have tended to give Baylor fits this year b/c of their inability to hammer the basketball into the inside. They have settled for jump shots (some ugly at times), and it’s not really what you want to have against the Xavier defense. Good offensive teams welcome the opportunity to go up against it, but not teams that have little to no outside scoring (they have two wins, four losses). What’s a tad bit shocking is that they haven’t really faced off against a defense that uses little pressure and a ton of help defense. Just six instances this year, so what they’re facing tonight isn’t really the norm for them on the season. Tiny bit of revenge for Xavier as Baylor beat them by five a few years ago (Frease, Holloway, Lyons did play that game). Defensively, if Baylor doesn’t go zone I’m not sure who Heslip guards, but that’s an advantage in itself. If they do go zone, then what’s a better backcourt in the country than Tu and Lyons attacking against it? All in all, just tough for me to go against good, experienced guards catching the points, also noting the really good defensive presence in the post to combat Baylor’s lone advantage in the game.
3* Xavier +6
2* Xavier ML +240
Lean: Kentucky -9.5
It for the night.
GL
Was REALLY hopping for a break down on NC STATE/ KANSAS..Please...lol
Was REALLY hopping for a break down on NC STATE/ KANSAS..Please...lol
Bit scared of NC State's defense. I like there size which can pose some problems, but just scary. They've only beaten four top 50 offenses on the year (Miami FL twice, Georgetown, and Texas) and my thought process has trouble putting those even in the top 50.
With Kansas, you have a team that's looked pretty bad for the better part of March. If you followed the Kansas analysis, I thought they weren't all that good at the start of this year, and I've pretty much avoided them throughout the year. I think this is a spot for Kansas or nothing, just not worth my risk on the heavy favorite. NC State played a pretty decent non-conference schedule but playing the Vanderbilt's and Indiana's and Stanford's who like to go up and down and not really put a focus on defense doesn't really prepare you for the Kansas pressure defense. Neither does the defense-less ACC.
Tough game.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by 1pumpchump:
Was REALLY hopping for a break down on NC STATE/ KANSAS..Please...lol
Bit scared of NC State's defense. I like there size which can pose some problems, but just scary. They've only beaten four top 50 offenses on the year (Miami FL twice, Georgetown, and Texas) and my thought process has trouble putting those even in the top 50.
With Kansas, you have a team that's looked pretty bad for the better part of March. If you followed the Kansas analysis, I thought they weren't all that good at the start of this year, and I've pretty much avoided them throughout the year. I think this is a spot for Kansas or nothing, just not worth my risk on the heavy favorite. NC State played a pretty decent non-conference schedule but playing the Vanderbilt's and Indiana's and Stanford's who like to go up and down and not really put a focus on defense doesn't really prepare you for the Kansas pressure defense. Neither does the defense-less ACC.
what do you think nropp if you had to pick a total on the Xavier game. would love to hear your insight? your write-ups are a daily read for me bro keep up the great work...
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what do you think nropp if you had to pick a total on the Xavier game. would love to hear your insight? your write-ups are a daily read for me bro keep up the great work...
I had to hit the book before seeing your pick, but I did ask myself WWND? at the window, and it looks like I picked accurately (usually, it's the side/total that looks worst to me, since I'm a huge square).
I also have the under in the UNC-Ohio game, so look for an NBA All-Star game-like scoring fest in that one...
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I had to hit the book before seeing your pick, but I did ask myself WWND? at the window, and it looks like I picked accurately (usually, it's the side/total that looks worst to me, since I'm a huge square).
I also have the under in the UNC-Ohio game, so look for an NBA All-Star game-like scoring fest in that one...
Not quite true, NC St. has faced Virginia twice and Florida St. once, both pretty good defensive teams. They also played Princeton early in the season, granted Princeton doesn't play the kind of pressure D that Kansas employs. NC St. went 2-2 against those teams, with one being a 2 point squeaker at home against Princeton. I would lean toward a double digit win for Kansas tonight. They haven't yet played a complete game in the tournament. I know Shaka Smart thinks NC St's Leslie is one of the best players in the country, but I don't think they'll be able to handle the Kansas pressure.
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Not quite true, NC St. has faced Virginia twice and Florida St. once, both pretty good defensive teams. They also played Princeton early in the season, granted Princeton doesn't play the kind of pressure D that Kansas employs. NC St. went 2-2 against those teams, with one being a 2 point squeaker at home against Princeton. I would lean toward a double digit win for Kansas tonight. They haven't yet played a complete game in the tournament. I know Shaka Smart thinks NC St's Leslie is one of the best players in the country, but I don't think they'll be able to handle the Kansas pressure.
I like Ohio in this spot. UNC has had three days to prepare without their floor leader. They've got a totally unproven point guard running the team now. Granted, they have a huge size advantage up front (with Zeller and Henson), but even Henson is a bit of an x-factor with his wrist injury. I think Ohio will keep this game close.
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I like Ohio in this spot. UNC has had three days to prepare without their floor leader. They've got a totally unproven point guard running the team now. Granted, they have a huge size advantage up front (with Zeller and Henson), but even Henson is a bit of an x-factor with his wrist injury. I think Ohio will keep this game close.
I'm very curious about your Kentucky lean. I was leaning the other way towards Indiana and the points with maybe an upset looming. Could you explain your thinking on this one? Thanks so much for all you do!
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I'm very curious about your Kentucky lean. I was leaning the other way towards Indiana and the points with maybe an upset looming. Could you explain your thinking on this one? Thanks so much for all you do!
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