Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 61-43, +83.35
March Leans: 38-37
I think if there is a few things that concern me with Xavier here, it’s probably a lack of depth and going against size. Baylor’s defensive pressure isn’t all that of a concern here with me, and Xavier’s lack of pressure itself is probably a good thing within the match-up and schemes that each want to play. As for Xavier going against size they’re 13-4 this year against top 100 teams in terms of effective height, so that concern gets put to rest. The 13 wins came by an average of 11 points, and some of the losses were some not so great situational spots (going against double revenge in one game, another game on the back end of a three game roady, and the other two losses at Umass and Memphis who lost a combined two games at home this year). In terms of value, Baylor was a whopping favorite of just one point more in their past few games than what I see tonight. I put Xavier in a different echelon of teams aside from South Dakota State and Colorado, and a big reason is because of the guard play of Holloway and Lyons. I think Baylor has a slight advantage in the paint, I’m just not sure how big of a factor it has within the game. When you look at how Xavier defends, they don’t use all that great of pressure, they play up the line, and excel in the half court style with great help defense. These types of teams have tended to give Baylor fits this year b/c of their inability to hammer the basketball into the inside. They have settled for jump shots (some ugly at times), and it’s not really what you want to have against the Xavier defense. Good offensive teams welcome the opportunity to go up against it, but not teams that have little to no outside scoring (they have two wins, four losses). What’s a tad bit shocking is that they haven’t really faced off against a defense that uses little pressure and a ton of help defense. Just six instances this year, so what they’re facing tonight isn’t really the norm for them on the season. Tiny bit of revenge for Xavier as Baylor beat them by five a few years ago (Frease, Holloway, Lyons did play that game). Defensively, if Baylor doesn’t go zone I’m not sure who Heslip guards, but that’s an advantage in itself. If they do go zone, then what’s a better backcourt in the country than Tu and Lyons attacking against it? All in all, just tough for me to go against good, experienced guards catching the points, also noting the really good defensive presence in the post to combat Baylor’s lone advantage in the game.
3* Xavier +6
2* Xavier ML +240
Lean: Kentucky -9.5
It for the night.
GL
0
,gL
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