Friday Hoops

Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:

November: 46-38, +5.20

November Leans: 39-38

December: 65-70, -9.45

December Leans: 67-79

January: 52-39, +15.80

January Leans: 40-37

February: 63-44, +65.90

February Leans: 56-49

March: 61-43, +83.35

March Leans: 38-37

I think if there is a few things that concern me with Xavier here, it’s probably a lack of depth and going against size. Baylor’s defensive pressure isn’t all that of a concern here with me, and Xavier’s lack of pressure itself is probably a good thing within the match-up and schemes that each want to play. As for Xavier going against size they’re 13-4 this year against top 100 teams in terms of effective height, so that concern gets put to rest. The 13 wins came by an average of 11 points, and some of the losses were some not so great situational spots (going against double revenge in one game, another game on the back end of a three game roady, and the other two losses at Umass and Memphis who lost a combined two games at home this year).  In terms of value, Baylor was a whopping favorite of just one point more in their past few games than what I see tonight. I put Xavier in a different echelon of teams aside from South Dakota State and Colorado, and a big reason is because of the guard play of Holloway and Lyons. I think Baylor has a slight advantage in the paint, I’m just not sure how big of a factor it has within the game. When you look at how Xavier defends, they don’t use all that great of pressure, they play up the line, and excel in the half court style with great help defense. These types of teams have tended to give Baylor fits this year b/c of their inability to hammer the basketball into the inside. They have settled for jump shots (some ugly at times), and it’s not really what you want to have against the Xavier defense. Good offensive teams welcome the opportunity to go up against it, but not teams that have little to no outside scoring (they have two wins, four losses). What’s a tad bit shocking is that they haven’t really faced off against a defense that uses little pressure and a ton of help defense. Just six instances this year, so what they’re facing tonight isn’t really the norm for them on the season. Tiny bit of revenge for Xavier as Baylor beat them by five a few years ago (Frease, Holloway, Lyons did play that game). Defensively, if Baylor doesn’t go zone I’m not sure who Heslip guards, but that’s an advantage in itself. If they do go zone, then what’s a better backcourt in the country than Tu and Lyons attacking against it? All in all, just tough for me to go against good, experienced guards catching the points, also noting the really good defensive presence in the post to combat Baylor’s lone advantage in the game.

3* Xavier +6

2* Xavier ML +240

Lean: Kentucky -9.5

It for the night. 

GL

Ropp... Much respect man!  I follow you on twitter and look forward to your write ups on Covers.  Obviously, I hope you are wrong on all accounts... but I doubt that will be the case.  I wanted to get your more in depth thoughts on this match up.  How do you feel about the transitional defense from zone to man, man to zone Drew has been throwing at teams as of late?  PJIII has been struggling and the last time he struggled for a while he came out in a big way (dont remember if it was the Kansas or KState game), it just seems like he is due a huge game.  Building on PJIII... teams have focused so much on him that Heslip has been going crazy from 3 pt land - Can the Xavier D shut down PJIII as well as BU's outside shooting as of late?

hmmmm...love your picks normally and tail most of the time...can't do it tonight though. BU playing much better since start of big 12 tourney...i think they've learned how to play wheter PJIII is involved or not...earlier in the year they seemed to 'need' to include him in the offense and as his struggles continued S Drew kept him in the game...later in the season (about the OU game) SD started pulling him and letting him sit and his attitude became problimatic...somewhere prior to the conference tourney he had a major attitude adjustment..his comments about sharing the ball and helping the team in other ways were actually occuring on the court...BU's lone loss since that time was in the Big 12 final against Mizzou in which the tigers shot 54% from the field...BU played a complete game but were just outgunned as the tigers were en feugo from 3 pt. land...

When PJIII started sharing time and the ball you saw defenses collapse on PJIII which actually started giving Heslip some open looks (shooting 46% from 3 land) with the change the bears started seeing  the emergence of players like Duece Bello and Ant Jones who was a starter on the elite team who lost to Duke 2 yrs ago...these guys have been logging 15-25 minutes a game off the bench coupled with AJ Walton's 20-30 minutes off of the bench...there is alot of flexibility in the offense and they are quite deep.  Concerns about the bears would lie in P Jackson getting in foul trouble...in the games the bears have lost Jackson has spent significant time on the bench...when he's on the court..he's one of the best....

i respect your opinion Neil but i can't pull the trigger on this game...X let ND's anemic offense score 63 pts...X will get their pts.bc BU is not a great defensive team but they will switch from zone to man throughout the game which could cause problems  but im afraid the bears may run X out of the gym...my play   BU/X over 142

Thanks!  I don't know much about Xavier except that Fease is a beast.  In past matchups, RS Soph Corey Jefferson matched up really well with bigger dudes down low (he had his best game of the season against T Robinson). 

NC/Ohio  ...im on the OVER 142....thoughts?