Well.....this kinda sucks 
.... I had retyped all this (below) only to find that the TOTAL had jumped up ....
Bearcats @WOLVERINES
Interesting look at a possible OVER total bet (o/u146.5)
When playing at HOME (like tonight) facing the other competitive teams in the mediocre WAC, Utah Valley scored 80, 80, 90, and 113 all in regulation....and we should also add they scored 88 against rival S.UTAH played in Vegas. If we were to hypothesize that 113 down to a more likely number like say, 90 pts, then we get a solid mean of about 85 ppg.....with 80 being the lowest number of the 5.
They played 3 conf games vs tough rival S.UTAH and the game totals were: 146 (January), then 173 at home in February, then 177 in Vegas March 10. Their March 03 HOME game against another WAC winning team (SFA) finished 182 total in regulation! Yes, yes, Cincinnati is better than all the teams the Wolverines faced. But I think, what those numbers seem to show is they get into a run & gun wide open scoring affair when facing better opps than usual....yes/no?
So then I looked at the games Cincinnati played IN CONF against more or less similar teams to Utah Valley. I will not count the scores against TOP POWER teams Houston and Memphis nor the weaklings like TULSA....So eliminating those, and just against similar teams to UV, Bearcats ON THE ROAD (plus neutral playoffs) scored these: 61 and 70 in early January; 83 in reg Feb 07; 73 Feb 19; 84 (neutral v. Temple); 79 @Hofstra. That's a mean avg of 79 ppg recently ...or 75 ppg if we include those 2 games from the first week after the Christmas break. In fact, in recent play, which is MOST IMPORTANT, the Bearcats have not scored fewer than 71 pts in ANY game since February 01 (excluding game against extremely tough Houston)
Another way to look at this for Cincinnati is this: in their more recent games (since Feb 01) and against decent/competitive squads more or less like UV, their game totals were: 137; 166 in reg; 144; 150 in reg; 138; 153 v. VTech; 144 @Hofstra........ a mean avg of 147.4 tpg (not counting OT scoring - which I prefer to ignore)
Both teams are expected to have their full lineups tonight.
Of course anything can happen in basketball. One or both teams could unexpectedly play awful.
FCK!
After all that, the total jumps UP to o/u 148.5 .....sigh..... I dunno now.... maybe still an over but less optimism for me...May just hope for slow play in the early mins so the total drops then possibly grab an over....not sure
COMING NEXT: more of the same BS ....LOL
*BEST BETS record YTD: 68 - 24
(a net of +24.69 units if choosing to grade my bets at ONLY one unit each)
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