Hawaii / Fresno Total

YTD: 13-4 (0-1 last night with the Buffalo/Ohio Over)

Looking to bounce back tonight from the first posted loss since 12/16 that broke an 8-0 run

Play: Hawaii / Fresno St Over 139.5

Tonight’s angle revolves heavily around Fresno and the opponents that they have played.  With respect to raw possessions per game, they enter tonight ranked #304 (63.4 possessions). However, this slow pace is a direct result of the opponents that they have played—8 of their 16 opponents rank in the bottom 65 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo averaging less than 64.4 possessions per game (including 4 of their last 5 games).  Fresno’s adjusted tempo actually increases to 65.2 possessions per game when you take this fact into account.

Taking this angle one step further, Fresno has only played 4 opponents (Manhattan, UT-San Antonio, N Dakota St, and Oregon) ranked in the top 150 with respect to adjusted tempo so far this season. Every one of those games went over tonight’s total. This is very significant since Hawaii is the fastest paced team Fresno will have played yet this year averaging 70 possessions per game (#44 nationally).

Even yesterday’s Fresno paper acknowledged the type of opponent that the Bulldogs have faced recently and that they will bring an attacking mindset to tonight’s game. Coach Rodney Terry:

"But we've constantly said that we want to attack downhill, where we can get to that free throw line. I think our guys have gotten better with that over the last five games. It's still an area we have to continue to get better so we can continue to try to get to that line, because you're not getting to the line shooting jump shots. You've got to get into the paint and put pressure on the basket."

Now admittedly, backing on over or a side with Hawaii traveling to the mainland can always be a dicey proposition. However, their last 3 trips to Fresno resulted in totals of 155, 142, and 142. And this year’s version of the Rainbow Warriors is by far the fastest and most offensively efficient of the group.

Miscellaneous positives tonight:

·         Both teams score more than 1 pt per possession, and allow more than 1 pt per possession. A great correlation to have when backing an over

·         Hawaii #36 in FT per FG attempted while Fresno is #313 in allowing FTA/FGA

Best of luck if you decide to make a play

Yes, KenPom

Great info

GL Bro

This has got to be the only play that you have posted that the line hasnt moved 3-4 points(or more actually) with you pick in a long time.

good luck tonight riccio, im on it with you.  thanks for taking the time to write it up!

Quote Originally Posted by Petro27:

Great info.

well written, but is info any good?

Its amazing info. The outcome of this singular event is irrelevent. Solid info and analysis will lead to winning in the long run. Obviously its not gonna lead to 100% winners, but 6/10 is impressive enough.