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Hedging Advice--I have a $200 bet to win $9K...Got Butler @ 45-1 odds

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Posted: #1
Ok so I put $200 @ 45-1 odds on Butler to win it all back during the sweet 16...The payout is 9G's.  However I would really appreciate any input people may have to guarantee myself a solid profit by possibly hedging my bet.

- Thanks, Anthony
 
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Posted: #2
put a hefty wager (500 or so) or more on the VCU ML.  If butler wins that game, you lose 200 dollars.

Then put 600 or more or more on the opposing team's ML in the National championship.  if butler loses, you win the ML money.  If butler wins, you lose 1100, but you win 7900 
 
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Posted: #3
you lose 500, not 200 

my bad
 
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Posted: #4
you'd actually have to put more on the ML in the championship game because Butler would be the ML dog, so you'd have to put up a good bit more.....
 
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Posted: #5

I'd play VCU on the spread instead of ML....that way you'd at least have a chance to win both wagers . 

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:

I'd play VCU on the spread instead of ML....that way you'd at least have a chance to win both wagers . 

 
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Posted: #7
VCU + points - $550 to win $500

Then you worry about the next hedge later, because you'll probably have to lay some juice on the ML.
 
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Posted: #8
Love all the advice, and i definitely agree that $500 VCU w/ the points is the way to go against Butler...however would anybody recommend betting $200 on Kentucky to win it all (payout almost $300) as well in order to reduce the amount of juice i will have to lay the following round to still gaurantee myself a solid profit??

My reasoning leads me to believe that UCONN will be a more favorable matchup for Butler with a line that is about -3 to -4, and therefore i would not need to drop as much juice on them in the finals...I think if Kentucky faced Butler in the finals Kentuck would be -5...thoughts?
 
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Posted: #9
Wait and see if Butler wins, then hedge the championship game only..if VCU wins than so be it..

 
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Posted: #10
1000 on VCU plus the points (chance to win both), then 3500 (will be juiced) on Butler's opponent moneyline..then you'll have a nice profit either way
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:

I'd play VCU on the spread instead of ML....that way you'd at least have a chance to win both wagers . 


I disagree, respectfully of course

Let's run through the scenarios if you bet on VCU spread, and then ML:
SPREAD
VCU loses and doesn't cover: -550 dollars
VCU loses, but covers: +500
VCU wins: +500, -200 on Butler Future =+300

ML:
VCU loses: -500
VCU Wins: +650 - 200 on Butler Future = +450

Now, if Butler Wins and plays in the championship game where they will be dogs: (we will call their opponent team X since we don't know yet)

This is where you have to play the Favorite ML.  Will probably be -140 or -150, no?)

If you place 750 on team X ML:
scenario A) Team X wins: +500, -200 Butler Future=+300
scenario B) Team X Loses -750, +9,000 Butler Future=+8,250

Group it all together:
VCU wins, and you bet on VCU PS: 500-200 = +300
VCU loses, covers, then butler loses CG: 500+500-200= +800
VCU loses, doesn't cover, then butler loses CG: -550+500-200= -250

VCU loses ML, butler loses CG: -500+500-200= -200
VCU Loses ML, Butler wins CG: 9000-750-500 = +7750
VCU Wins ML: 650-200= +450

You could maximize profits in the CG if you bet more on the favorite ML, but if they lose, you'd lose more too, but you'd just take that out of the 9k


Sorry guys, but I like ML's here, especially with VCU being a dog here
 
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Posted: #12
I say you put $1000 on the VCU moneyline.  If that loses your still getting 7.5 to 1 on your original bet which leaves a lot of hedging room.  If VCU hits you still pocket a little over a g depending on the price you get.
 
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Posted: #13

Hey Man, similar spot as you and looking for same advice.

Put $100 on butler at 50 to 1 in sweet 16.

I am planning on taking VCU +2.5 and buying it up to +5 (-160).  And then going from there, hoping VCU loses from 1 to 5.  Thoughts everyone?  I was planning on putting $1600 on it to win $1000.  Probably too much but i think VCU keeps it close/wins.

Please advise.

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner13:


I disagree, respectfully of course

Let's run through the scenarios if you bet on VCU spread, and then ML:
SPREAD
VCU loses and doesn't cover: -550 dollars
VCU loses, but covers: +500
VCU wins: +500, -200 on Butler Future =+300

ML:
VCU loses: -500
VCU Wins: +650 - 200 on Butler Future = +450

Now, if Butler Wins and plays in the championship game where they will be dogs: (we will call their opponent team X since we don't know yet)

This is where you have to play the Favorite ML.  Will probably be -140 or -150, no?)

If you place 750 on team X ML:
scenario A) Team X wins: +500, -200 Butler Future=+300
scenario B) Team X Loses -750, +9,000 Butler Future=+8,250

Group it all together:
VCU wins, and you bet on VCU PS: 500-200 = +300
VCU loses, covers, then butler loses CG: 500+500-200= +800
VCU loses, doesn't cover, then butler loses CG: -550+500-200= -250

VCU loses ML, butler loses CG: -500+500-200= -200
VCU Loses ML, Butler wins CG: 9000-750-500 = +7750
VCU Wins ML: 650-200= +450

You could maximize profits in the CG if you bet more on the favorite ML, but if they lose, you'd lose more too, but you'd just take that out of the 9k


Sorry guys, but I like ML's here, especially with VCU being a dog here


Butler beat Old D by 2 on a buzzer beater.

Butler beat Pitt by 1 on a last sec foul.

Butler beat Wisconsin by 7.

Butler beat Florida in overtime by 3.

Normally for odds reasons you'd take moneyline but the way Butler plays VCU plus points gives you an excellent chance to win both bets.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by jz1119:

Hey Man, similar spot as you and looking for same advice.

Put $100 on butler at 50 to 1 in sweet 16.

I am planning on taking VCU +2.5 and buying it up to +5 (-160).  And then going from there, hoping VCU loses from 1 to 5.  Thoughts everyone?  I was planning on putting $1600 on it to win $1000.  Probably too much but i think VCU keeps it close/wins.

Please advise.



50 cents more is too much imo.
 
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Posted: #16
I hear that gamblingallday but I'd be kicking myself if I took them at +2.5 and they lose by 4. you agree?
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by afdiesel26:

Ok so I put $200 @ 45-1 odds on Butler to win it all back during the sweet 16...The payout is 9G's.  However I would really appreciate any input people may have to guarantee myself a solid profit by possibly hedging my bet.

- Thanks, Anthony

 

Whichever way you go, I definitely would hedge your bet. It would really suck to get that close and get nothing back in return. This way you are guaranteed some cash and that was the reason you bet in the first place. Guaranteed cash is the best cash, yeah it might not be as much as you would have orginally gotten but it's money in the bank!!

 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by afdiesel26:

Ok so I put $200 @ 45-1 odds on Butler to win it all back during the sweet 16...The payout is 9G's.  However I would really appreciate any input people may have to guarantee myself a solid profit by possibly hedging my bet.

- Thanks, Anthony

 
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Posted: #19

I agree with Sparty but would put at least $1,000 on VCU with the points. 

If VCU loses by more than the spread you still have $7,900 to work with.

  If VCU wins outright you are up $800. 

If VCU loses but covers you win $1,000 and your future bet is alive, you are now playing with $10,000 to hedge the final game. 

Good luck.

 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by afdiesel26:

Love all the advice, and i definitely agree that $500 VCU w/ the points is the way to go against Butler...however would anybody recommend betting $200 on Kentucky to win it all (payout almost $300) as well in order to reduce the amount of juice i will have to lay the following round to still gaurantee myself a solid profit??

My reasoning leads me to believe that UCONN will be a more favorable matchup for Butler with a line that is about -3 to -4, and therefore i would not need to drop as much juice on them in the finals...I think if Kentucky faced Butler in the finals Kentuck would be -5...thoughts?

 

the director ofthevenetian sportsbooksays the number would be 5.5-6 if either kentucky or uconn play butler

 
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Posted: #21

thank you very much for that info vegas..my site just came up with this line:

40042 Kentucky/UConn wins NCAA     -250

 
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Posted: #22
Honestly I think Butler will win the whole thing. Butler is the best team left, Shelvin Mack is probably the best PG left in the tourney, and Matt Howard does it all, if I were you I would just ride it out. 

I got a bet on KY at 35-1 to win it all, I am very confident they will crush UCONN, but when they play Butler, I will definately put a wager on Butler plus the points. 
 
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Posted: #23
now my question is..it seems like money is moving the line VCU's direction..looks like it opened at 3 and already 2.5..thoughts?
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by AJK:

Honestly I think Butler will win the whole thing. Butler is the best team left, Shelvin Mack is probably the best PG left in the tourney, and Matt Howard does it all, if I were you I would just ride it out. 

exactly..if they don't your down $200...if you bet $1000 on VCU and butler wins then your $9000 is now $8000.

saying that, Id definitely consider a hedge on the championship game, but then again, if you like butler why bet against yourself? 

 i know, i know, i know...then your guaranteed money...but if you go another $1000 on UCONN/KY then your $9000 is now $7000


 
 
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Posted: #25
Thank you to everyone's expert's input!!  I will probably bet putting down around $500 on VCU...still debating ML or points tough call since all of Butlers games have been so close!  Does anybody have a good unbiased analysis of the matchup b/w Butler & VCU??
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