1. Take half of your payout less your bet or $4400 ($9000 - $200)/2. 2. take half of that, $2200 and take VCU ML (+130). a. if VCU wins outright you net $2660 ($2200 * 1.3 - $200). b. if VCU losses (outright or by spread), you lost $2200 but now have potential to win $6600 ($8800 - $2200).
Now you have just have to hedge 1 game with the ML on either Kentucky or Ucon, which would say -250.
If you put $4715 on Kentuck/Uconn to win $1886. You now are guaranteed a minimum winnings of $1885 ($6600 - 4715) or maximum winnings of $2200 (if VCU wins outright).
Would you take a guaranteed $1885 today?
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This is how you maximize your minimum winnings:
1. Take half of your payout less your bet or $4400 ($9000 - $200)/2. 2. take half of that, $2200 and take VCU ML (+130). a. if VCU wins outright you net $2660 ($2200 * 1.3 - $200). b. if VCU losses (outright or by spread), you lost $2200 but now have potential to win $6600 ($8800 - $2200).
Now you have just have to hedge 1 game with the ML on either Kentucky or Ucon, which would say -250.
If you put $4715 on Kentuck/Uconn to win $1886. You now are guaranteed a minimum winnings of $1885 ($6600 - 4715) or maximum winnings of $2200 (if VCU wins outright).
Two mid majors both who lay it on the line all game....
VCU-strenghts, pressure in your face, on the ball, and in transition. 3 pt line--- they will shoot 25 -- how do you defend? Joey Rodriguez, creator and can shoot must stop him--SKeen will be a beast inside and out.
Butler- Strengths, tempo and pace control, always make good decisions... shelvin mack is the best guard in this game, matt howard is versatile and a tough matchup, butler is very tough mentally and will not be rattled.
This game will be measured by 2 key factors:
Tempo- so far both teams have imposed their style onto their opponent--will butler speed up and play out of its element? Will VCU be forced into a half court game and lose its rhythm?
Matt Howard- If he stays out of foul trouble it gives the game to butler, if he picks up some early fouls--VCU could bury butler in the first half
Overall---
Two well coached teams--slight advantage is Butler because of familiarity, leadership, and a coach that has been there before. HOWEVER this game will be won by VCU if they are hitting their 3's which I think they will... although many see the pressure on VCU being their first time and all, I actually think it is on Butler who for the first time this tourney are favorites. Obviously this is a very evenly matched games and numerous things can happen to affect the outcome, but analysis points to VCU being the team on top:
VCU 69 Butler 65
good luck
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VCU/Butler Analysis:
Two mid majors both who lay it on the line all game....
VCU-strenghts, pressure in your face, on the ball, and in transition. 3 pt line--- they will shoot 25 -- how do you defend? Joey Rodriguez, creator and can shoot must stop him--SKeen will be a beast inside and out.
Butler- Strengths, tempo and pace control, always make good decisions... shelvin mack is the best guard in this game, matt howard is versatile and a tough matchup, butler is very tough mentally and will not be rattled.
This game will be measured by 2 key factors:
Tempo- so far both teams have imposed their style onto their opponent--will butler speed up and play out of its element? Will VCU be forced into a half court game and lose its rhythm?
Matt Howard- If he stays out of foul trouble it gives the game to butler, if he picks up some early fouls--VCU could bury butler in the first half
Overall---
Two well coached teams--slight advantage is Butler because of familiarity, leadership, and a coach that has been there before. HOWEVER this game will be won by VCU if they are hitting their 3's which I think they will... although many see the pressure on VCU being their first time and all, I actually think it is on Butler who for the first time this tourney are favorites. Obviously this is a very evenly matched games and numerous things can happen to affect the outcome, but analysis points to VCU being the team on top:
I have uconn, 20 bucks to win 525, what would somebody suggest for my hedge? I can't win a ton, but like to come away with something. KY I can get for +140 (to win it all)
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I have uconn, 20 bucks to win 525, what would somebody suggest for my hedge? I can't win a ton, but like to come away with something. KY I can get for +140 (to win it all)
I have uconn, 20 bucks to win 525, what would somebody suggest for my hedge? I can't win a ton, but like to come away with something. KY I can get for +140 (to win it all)
if you hedge with Kentucky to win it all, it has to be enough for another hedge in the finals. Hedge with Kentucky ML or if you dont like the ML juice, take Kentucky and buy .5 point and gamble that they dont win by a disasterous 1.
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Quote Originally Posted by gpb59:
I have uconn, 20 bucks to win 525, what would somebody suggest for my hedge? I can't win a ton, but like to come away with something. KY I can get for +140 (to win it all)
if you hedge with Kentucky to win it all, it has to be enough for another hedge in the finals. Hedge with Kentucky ML or if you dont like the ML juice, take Kentucky and buy .5 point and gamble that they dont win by a disasterous 1.
if you hedge with Kentucky to win it all, it has to be enough for another hedge in the finals. Hedge with Kentucky ML or if you dont like the ML juice, take Kentucky and buy .5 point and gamble that they dont win by a disasterous 1.
thanks, it's time like this when you wish you put a little more down, even another 20 would have helped
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Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:
if you hedge with Kentucky to win it all, it has to be enough for another hedge in the finals. Hedge with Kentucky ML or if you dont like the ML juice, take Kentucky and buy .5 point and gamble that they dont win by a disasterous 1.
thanks, it's time like this when you wish you put a little more down, even another 20 would have helped
You're hedging a team to win STRAIGHT UP who are a small favorite.
suggestion: butler, being a small favorite against VCU tells me to bet BOTH the MONEYLINE and the SPREAD.
why? because we all know that butler never wins big and your main goal here is for them to just win straight up.meanwhile, VCU, after seeing how they performed could very well beat butler tonight.
breakdown: let's say you bet $500 VCU ML and $1100 VCU to cover.
so there you go, worst case scenario there is if VCU gets blown out which to me is doubtful.
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this is my take on that hedging problem of yours,
You're hedging a team to win STRAIGHT UP who are a small favorite.
suggestion: butler, being a small favorite against VCU tells me to bet BOTH the MONEYLINE and the SPREAD.
why? because we all know that butler never wins big and your main goal here is for them to just win straight up.meanwhile, VCU, after seeing how they performed could very well beat butler tonight.
breakdown: let's say you bet $500 VCU ML and $1100 VCU to cover.
My personal opinion is this: Butler will win and cover against VCU as I believe (according to my power ratings) that they should be a 4-4.5 point favorite for this game. I would therefore bet the ML on VCU for $500 because statistically the ML is the better play. Yes Butler has played a lot of teams close, but I'm the kind of person who likes to stick to the correct play statistically. I also would bet around $1000 on VCU if I wasn't so confident Butler would win. If Butler wins then you would have to play the ML of either UConn or Kentucky in the final. Thats just a straight up 1 game hedge which should be fairly easy to figure out. Also it's a bad idea to bet Kentucky at +150 to win it all.
So my suggestion is: $500 on VCU ML then if Butler wins, hedge the final by betting the opposing team's ML.
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My personal opinion is this: Butler will win and cover against VCU as I believe (according to my power ratings) that they should be a 4-4.5 point favorite for this game. I would therefore bet the ML on VCU for $500 because statistically the ML is the better play. Yes Butler has played a lot of teams close, but I'm the kind of person who likes to stick to the correct play statistically. I also would bet around $1000 on VCU if I wasn't so confident Butler would win. If Butler wins then you would have to play the ML of either UConn or Kentucky in the final. Thats just a straight up 1 game hedge which should be fairly easy to figure out. Also it's a bad idea to bet Kentucky at +150 to win it all.
So my suggestion is: $500 on VCU ML then if Butler wins, hedge the final by betting the opposing team's ML.
Ok so I put $200 @ 45-1 odds on Butler to win it all back during the sweet 16...The payout is 9G's. However I would really appreciate any input people may have to guarantee myself a solid profit by possibly hedging my bet.
- Thanks, Anthony
Why in the world do people do this? Unless you had a strong feeling the #16 would beat Pitt 45-1 was awful value.
I'm not going to bother looking Ml's up but guessing and being conservative
Old Dom. EV - $200 becomes $400
Pitt +300 - $400 becomes $1600
Wisc +150 - $1600 becomes $4000
Flo +150 - $4000 becomes $10,000
If you were smart you can see you would already have ~10K in your pocket and wouldn't have to worry about winning 2 more games or throwing away money to "lock in a profit" If you rolled it over from there I'm guessing you end with $40,000 and not $9,000.
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Quote Originally Posted by afdiesel26:
Ok so I put $200 @ 45-1 odds on Butler to win it all back during the sweet 16...The payout is 9G's. However I would really appreciate any input people may have to guarantee myself a solid profit by possibly hedging my bet.
- Thanks, Anthony
Why in the world do people do this? Unless you had a strong feeling the #16 would beat Pitt 45-1 was awful value.
I'm not going to bother looking Ml's up but guessing and being conservative
Old Dom. EV - $200 becomes $400
Pitt +300 - $400 becomes $1600
Wisc +150 - $1600 becomes $4000
Flo +150 - $4000 becomes $10,000
If you were smart you can see you would already have ~10K in your pocket and wouldn't have to worry about winning 2 more games or throwing away money to "lock in a profit" If you rolled it over from there I'm guessing you end with $40,000 and not $9,000.
Why in the world do people do this? Unless you had a strong feeling the #16 would beat Pitt 45-1 was awful value.
I'm not going to bother looking Ml's up but guessing and being conservative
Old Dom. EV - $200 becomes $400
Pitt +300 - $400 becomes $1600
Wisc +150 - $1600 becomes $4000
Flo +150 - $4000 becomes $10,000
If you were smart you can see you would already have ~10K in your pocket and wouldn't have to worry about winning 2 more games or throwing away money to "lock in a profit" If you rolled it over from there I'm guessing you end with $40,000 and not $9,000.
Sounds like he made the bet after the Pitt win, before Wisconsin. SO...
Wisc +150 - $200 becomes $500
Flo +150 - $500 becomes $1,250
VCU -200$1,250 becomes $1,875
Uconn +150 $1875 becomes $4,688
So actually a good bet was made
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Quote Originally Posted by Covers_Speds:
Why in the world do people do this? Unless you had a strong feeling the #16 would beat Pitt 45-1 was awful value.
I'm not going to bother looking Ml's up but guessing and being conservative
Old Dom. EV - $200 becomes $400
Pitt +300 - $400 becomes $1600
Wisc +150 - $1600 becomes $4000
Flo +150 - $4000 becomes $10,000
If you were smart you can see you would already have ~10K in your pocket and wouldn't have to worry about winning 2 more games or throwing away money to "lock in a profit" If you rolled it over from there I'm guessing you end with $40,000 and not $9,000.
Sounds like he made the bet after the Pitt win, before Wisconsin. SO...
Sounds like he made the bet after the Pitt win, before Wisconsin. SO...
Wisc +150 - $200 becomes $500
Flo +150 - $500 becomes $1,250
VCU -200$1,250 becomes $1,875
Uconn +150 $1875 becomes $4,688
So actually a good bet was made
Thanks Chodaz ...
Butler @ 45-1 odds in the Sweet 16 was excellent value...there is no way I would have ever ridden them in the first game against ODU...honestly bet ODU thinking that Butler was overrated...however after seeing them take out Pitt...you could tell they were coming together at the right time! With a lot of luck I'm in a great spot now! I ended up throwing down 340 on the VCU game (bought the line to 4.5 and bet 340 to win 250)...didn't pan out obviously but all i was doing was trying to make sure i profited at least 50...now im gonna lay about 1700 on UCONN to win atleast win a G...which will give me an overall profit of about 500...MORE IMPORTANTLY IF BUTLER WINS I AM UP ALMOST 7K!!!
GO BULLDOGS!
- GO BULLDOGS!!
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Quote Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:
Sounds like he made the bet after the Pitt win, before Wisconsin. SO...
Wisc +150 - $200 becomes $500
Flo +150 - $500 becomes $1,250
VCU -200$1,250 becomes $1,875
Uconn +150 $1875 becomes $4,688
So actually a good bet was made
Thanks Chodaz ...
Butler @ 45-1 odds in the Sweet 16 was excellent value...there is no way I would have ever ridden them in the first game against ODU...honestly bet ODU thinking that Butler was overrated...however after seeing them take out Pitt...you could tell they were coming together at the right time! With a lot of luck I'm in a great spot now! I ended up throwing down 340 on the VCU game (bought the line to 4.5 and bet 340 to win 250)...didn't pan out obviously but all i was doing was trying to make sure i profited at least 50...now im gonna lay about 1700 on UCONN to win atleast win a G...which will give me an overall profit of about 500...MORE IMPORTANTLY IF BUTLER WINS I AM UP ALMOST 7K!!!
I am in 1st place in a offshore book's bracket contest where 1st place winner pays $10,000.I need Butler to win straight up to come in 1st, i am waiting/hoping Conn moneyline comes down before gametime & will hedge some,gl to you.
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I am in 1st place in a offshore book's bracket contest where 1st place winner pays $10,000.I need Butler to win straight up to come in 1st, i am waiting/hoping Conn moneyline comes down before gametime & will hedge some,gl to you.
I was going to say to wait until before the game,if those sites are right they have 60% on Butler,line has moved 1/2 point so far and might go another 1/2 point,be surprise if it goes down more than 1 point,they wont give a chance for guys to middle their bets.
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I was going to say to wait until before the game,if those sites are right they have 60% on Butler,line has moved 1/2 point so far and might go another 1/2 point,be surprise if it goes down more than 1 point,they wont give a chance for guys to middle their bets.
Butler @ 45-1 odds in the Sweet 16 was excellent value...there is no way I would have ever ridden them in the first game against ODU...honestly bet ODU thinking that Butler was overrated...however after seeing them take out Pitt...you could tell they were coming together at the right time! With a lot of luck I'm in a great spot now! I ended up throwing down 340 on the VCU game (bought the line to 4.5 and bet 340 to win 250)...didn't pan out obviously but all i was doing was trying to make sure i profited at least 50...now im gonna lay about 1700 on UCONN to win atleast win a G...which will give me an overall profit of about 500...MORE IMPORTANTLY IF BUTLER WINS I AM UP ALMOST 7K!!!
GO BULLDOGS!
- GO BULLDOGS!!
On a side note if Butler played Kansas and been +200:
Wisc +150 - $200 becomes $500
Flo +150 - $500 becomes $1,250
Kansas +200 - $1,250 becomes $3,750
Uconn +150 - $3,750 becomes $9,375
So essentially it would be the same thing....except for the fact that if you bet individually you would have the money in hand going into the last game, where you wouldn't have to hedge to make a profit.
Anyway GO BUTLER!
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Quote Originally Posted by afdiesel26:
Thanks Chodaz ...
Butler @ 45-1 odds in the Sweet 16 was excellent value...there is no way I would have ever ridden them in the first game against ODU...honestly bet ODU thinking that Butler was overrated...however after seeing them take out Pitt...you could tell they were coming together at the right time! With a lot of luck I'm in a great spot now! I ended up throwing down 340 on the VCU game (bought the line to 4.5 and bet 340 to win 250)...didn't pan out obviously but all i was doing was trying to make sure i profited at least 50...now im gonna lay about 1700 on UCONN to win atleast win a G...which will give me an overall profit of about 500...MORE IMPORTANTLY IF BUTLER WINS I AM UP ALMOST 7K!!!
GO BULLDOGS!
- GO BULLDOGS!!
On a side note if Butler played Kansas and been +200:
Wisc +150 - $200 becomes $500
Flo +150 - $500 becomes $1,250
Kansas +200 - $1,250 becomes $3,750
Uconn +150 - $3,750 becomes $9,375
So essentially it would be the same thing....except for the fact that if you bet individually you would have the money in hand going into the last game, where you wouldn't have to hedge to make a profit.
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