If any of you guys are using William Hill or Bet MGM or another LV based mobile app I'd love to hear your comments.
I've had a very fortunate/lucky run through the mid season point in NFL & NCAAF into the NCAAM and throughout the tourney.
In large part some of my success is due to many handicappers within this community, good, bad and indifferent. Thank you.
My personal process in any sport/game is to first consider and grind through all of the numbers and data....then determine, if in my opinion, there is a notable edge. (typically on a side specific and once in a great while on a total) Next, I digest a ton of the covers forum posts to either shoot holes in, or further validate my initial opinion. Anyway, I've been very fortunate to have had a cumulative 20 week run that I very much recognize as rare and possibly "one in a lifetime".
Back on March 12th I played this $300 Future on North Carolina @ +6000 (profile pic/win pays $18,300)
Blindly ignoring a very basic rule of success in sports wagering, foolishly, last night rather than to play a small hedge with Duke, I max played NC +4-1/2 AND maxed a NC ML bet at +185 simply because I did feel that strong on how the numbers crunched out...(now my "max play" varies in all sports but is totally controlled by the horrible STN Sports app here in L.V.....more on this below - I'm sure many of you are familiar with this)
Now considering the acceptable risk/reward with locking into a guaranteed profit for tomorrow night's game considering the KU ML is -190 I feel conflicted for many reasons about the approximately $11,800 ML bet to achieve somewhere around the flat even $6.4K guarantee win either way.
Next, the other issue I'm experiencing is the Station Casino STN Mobile App AND the really unfriendly comp wise Stations policy regarding sports bettors. My home is literally 3 min from the Red Rock Casino, so back in the day it was convenient. The STN mobile app limits my "max play" on college hoops sides to $3K /$3300 with a standard -110. Now, I can and DO take advantage of line moves with spreads or ML's as it re-opens my ability to a new unique "max play" bet. Having said that, it's a pain in the ass.
Enter this hedge opportunity...I need to take the majority of this action off property or at the window as it almost 4X the max play. In addition to that, my cumulative wager amounts in Q4 and Q1 of 2022 are fairly sizable in my mind. (I understand that I'm maybe in a mid-tier at best bettor compared to probably 100's of players here that have a $10K per game or above avg bet size) But my total comps for these periods through Stations have been about $235 F&B credit.....so bad in terms of keeping the players on your property....they just don't attribute the value...Man how times have changed!
I like North Carolina +4.5 and keep the game tight with a chance to win outright tomorrow night.