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Holmey's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.22.16

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Posted: #26
GL HOMLEY. Oops.
 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by nahlij:

is there a record being kept for each thread or do we have to read through all the pages and add it ourselves?

I track all the eligible $$$$'s that are posted here.  I don't track regular plays or $$$$'s that don't adhere to the rules in the first post every day.  All plays are encouraged here, but only the $$$$'s with solid writeups get tracked.

 
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Posted: #28
thank you for this thread ,,,, 

and we can have nice things.
 
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Posted: #29

$$$$ THREAD RESULTS/STANDINGS THRU FEB. 21

Sunday $$$$ W/L: 5-4
TOTAL OVERALL W/L TO DATE: 125-107-5

$$$$ OF THE DAY: Goes to Voyks07 for his soccer over that hit in the 37th minute

STANDINGS:
I can't type out everyone's name any more here, so from now on, the Standings will show people who have made a minimum number of $$$$'s.

MINIMUM OF 3 $$$$'s MADE
(Last day where 3 is the minimum)

THE ELITE EIGHT

1. wmi799 (7-2) - THE BIG DOG

2. bubbaski27 (8-3-1)
3. rf_dawg (4-0)
4. Gtimebutler (6-2)
5. Xdresser (3-0)
6. TheKrew (4-1-1)
7. USC_Holmey (6-3-1)
7. jimc0911 (6-3)

9.  jimmybigmits (3-1-1)
10. jroc1247 (4-2)
11. Benzis (2-1)
11. Stu23 (2-1)
11. TopFlightSports (2-1)
14. FenwayFrank (3-2)
14. gatorbear (3-2)
16. Desertcapper (4-3)
17. bk1274 (2-2)
18. BadTimes (3-3)
19. ncaabb (5-5)
19. nfl_brosuf (5-5)
21. crownpeach (1-2)
21. D_Frash (1-2)
21. Da_Oracle (1-2)
21. ming01 (1-2)
21. Rogers4roy (1-2)
21. TE88 (1-2)
27. Appleton40 (2-3)
27. magiccarpetride (2-3)
27. wgomel21 (2-3)
30. truthcapper (1-3-1)
30. BarneysDad (1-3)
30. silversilver (1-3)
33. forty9ersfan80 (2-6)

Others at (2-0) --- Madden21, NicMittens

Thanks guys and good luck today!

 
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Posted: #30
My idea is to make the Standings post a Blog post on my Covers My Space page so you guys can find it quickly every day, but I can't get it to post on there.  Every time I open up "New Post", it says "Page Cannot Be Displayed"......anybody got any ideas?
 
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Posted: #31
No $$$$play today's. I'll be at the UWGB so may tail just to make it interesting. Good luck and good work guys.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

$$$$ Golden State Warriors -7

Golden State has another road game against an above .500 team.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 including a straight up loss/blowout against Portland.  Your normal bettor would think this is a recipe for disaster.  Not me.  Atlanta hasn't won since the break, dropping two straight at home (last game was a double OT loss).  I saw this team get manhandled by Phoenix less than a month ago.  On the other end Golden State looked as good as ever last game against the Clippers.  Although they didn't cover after a crazy streak by the Clippers they dominated that entire game.  The loss to Portland relit their fire and then allowing the Clippers to come back is like pouring gasoline on the fire.  They will tighten up here on defense and really put it on the Hawks.  The Hawks are a completely fake/fluke of an above .500 team and GS is exactly what you see, the best team in the NBA.  Golden State by double digits tonight.

$$$$ Golden Steph Warriors -7

Some crazy reverse line movement in that game. Something like 85% on Golden State yet line moved in Atlanta's favor. I agree with you but if there is one thing I have learned about the NBA is stay away when it looks to good to be true.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:

Virgina vs Miami, 

two division powers in a very tight conference collide in miami,

Miami suffering a devastating loss against North Carolina where it returns home hungry for a win to keep its playoff hopes alive

virginia a ranked team goes to miami with the same ambition and looking to edge closer to the top of of the leader board facing unc later this month. a defensive stand for virginia but the score close to 70-68

a pivotal game on both ends i am leaning Virginia +1.5

but the $$$ play here is over 129 score 

more i think of this the more i believe this going to stay tight and go into a shoot out.
miami must win virginia must win to believe its going to unc with any chance both teams are going to play with extreme desporation. for the number one seed miami goes from here to face louisville if they cant win here they pretty muched lossed a tourney spot. virginia is peaking and understands this is a warm up to real challenge that awaits unc can not believe this would be under 140 giving the circumstances. 129 gives a great cushion to a reality great chance this will be descided in over time.
 
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Posted: #34
I see the Virginia/Miami game at 128 now.  I was ready to lock in at 129, but that number dropping scares me off a bit.  Any insight?
 
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Posted: #35
$$$$ Play Today. Kansas State -1

Everything lining up for a very nice value play here. Kansas State is just as good as a team as this Texas team imo. I believe this spread should be closer to -4 or -5. Reverse line movement in our favor here which is always great to see as well. 

The game earlier this year was a very back and forth game that came down to the last shot. Both teams showed no clear edge over each-other. I believe Kansas St comes back on their home floor and gets the win tonight after losing a close one last time.

Since Cameron Ridleys injury. Texas is 2-5 on the road and really has not found any consistency as a team.

Two things that worry me is how similar of teams West Virginia and K State are. I like to look at how teams fare against similar teams and Texas has beaten West Virginia twice, both of which were by 7 points. Another worry factor is that Texas has rebounded from losses quite well. They have only lost back to back games twice this year. And since Baylor was their worst loss of the year you could see them bouncing back in a big way. Just two things to watch out for that make me a bit cautious about an otherwise great value play. 

Kansas State and Texas are just too similar of teams for me to not take K State at home tonight. I believe K State gets the job done in a revenge game. Best of luck on whatever side you are on.
 
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Posted: #36
Also really like Iona and West Virginia tonight. Could not decide which of the three to make my $$$ play. 
 
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Posted: #37
[Quote: Originally Posted by Butta4] I see the Virginia/Miami game at 128 now.  I was ready to lock in at 129, but that number dropping scares me off a bit.  Any insight? [/Quote\]

the public believes it more a defensive battle??

 
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Posted: #38
just crushing raw numbers here but maiami makes 76 and gives up66
unv makes 71 and gives up 59.5
awat teams offense vs opponent defemse gives an avg of 69.5
away teams defensive vs home teams offense an avg of 67.7
leaving a 1.8 spread favoring virgina and a mean score of 139

not sure though the drop....furthur. seems unrealistic inmho
 
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Posted: #39

If you guys know what you know, then my opinion would be to not let line movements undermine your resolve.  Lines have to move.  If they move in your favor....awesome!  But don't let how a line moves make you question your own play.  Books show you only what they want you to see and only to influence you to do what they want you to do.  They are totally unregulated and every money stat they present to you could be 100% made up and only shown to try to influence you to put money on a specific side so they can get their money as close to 50-50 as they can get it.

Not saying that anything you guys are talking about is wrong, but I just don't like seeing people who seem so certain about a bet get reluctant just because there is some "unexplained" money stat out there.  Those money stats could be 100% bogus and none of us would ever know it.

Whatever you guys decide I hope it hits!

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:

just crushing raw numbers here but maiami makes 76 and gives up66
unv makes 71 and gives up 59.5
awat teams offense vs opponent defemse gives an avg of 69.5
away teams defensive vs home teams offense an avg of 67.7
leaving a 1.8 spread favoring virgina and a mean score of 139

not sure though the drop....furthur. seems unrealistic inmho

I was looking at the same numbers and couldn't figure out the drop.  It seems like a lock to go over, but every time I think that the book proves me wrong and takes my money.  I think I'm going to stay away from this one.
 
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Posted: #41
adding a hype of adreniline the pressure to win and the adreniline of miami at home i added 3 pointer to this spread.
 
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Posted: #42
I just saw that guy "College Gambler" and his thread about leaving work to move to Vegas and read the first couple posts and then went to the end to read what happened and there has literally never been a more predictable outcome in human history.  All I know is what I saw on Page 1 of the thread and on the last 3 pages, but the odds on what happened going EXACTLY as it appeared they did, would have been about -6000 on the day he quit his job.  What a knob.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

 
$$$$ Golden Steph Warriors -7


Ain't that the truth!
 
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Posted: #44
On the CBS thread, we charted what people could agree were "Trap Lines" and the results came out 38-36 against the agreed upon "Trap Lines" over a 3-month span.  I literally pay zero attention to "line movement" and "trap lines", so I don't really know how you guys define them, but I just charted what everyone agreed were trap lines and they came out almost exactly 50-50.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Butta4:


I was looking at the same numbers and couldn't figure out the drop.  It seems like a lock to go over, but every time I think that the book proves me wrong and takes my money.  I think I'm going to stay away from this one.

i don't have that read it isnt availible to me but if you have a gut check better to play these things save and wait for a better shot.
 
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Posted: #46
i am locked to this bet no real way i could cancel it but i believe the math if you look at my survivor profile you could see my one shots are doing great ........ and that to me is real money if i could run a 25-0 there be 100,000 g and in my world thats about as good as it gets.
 
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Posted: #47
in the real $$ world i call make a pick to a local
on cbb no way to get out of the bet.
 
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Posted: #48
No $$$$ play for me tonight but as some of you know I'm a Siena basketball season ticket holder and follow the MAAC closely so wanted to offer my input on the game tonight. 

Siena is peaking at the right time.  They have won four of their last give games including two very tough road games at Iona and Rider and are playing with a ton of confidence right now.  They got Marquise Wright back on Friday after missing pretty much all of conference play to this point and while he was expected to have a limited role he came in and looked like he never missed a beat.

While others have stepped up in his absence there's no question Marquis Wright is the x factor for Siena and they are a 10x better team when hes healthy.  Him being out for so long allowed Siena's two freshman guards (Nico Clareth and Kenny Wormley) to gain invaluable experience with a ton of extra playing time and this will be huge for the Saints as they are now deep and experienced at the guard position heading into the tournament.  

I know alot of people will be on Iona here after they waxed Monmouth on national tv on Friday night and while normally I would think this is a good spot for them, I think their success had more to do with Monmouth's issues and less to do with Iona being the better team.  Monmouth played yesterday and went to overtime with a St Peters team they hammered earlier this year and I'm starting to think the season ending injury to Deon Jones is a bigger deal than initially expected.

Iona and Siena have a pretty solid rivalry that has been going on for the better part of the last two decades so there's no question Iona is backed by a big revenge angle after Siena beat them in New Rochelle last week.  The problem with backing Iona here is I really think Siena is the better team and are about to kick it into another gear with Wright back in the lineup and healthy again.

The rivalry and big revenge angle is enough to keep me off of this one but I do think Siena finds a way to win this game at home.  I also look for Siena to finish the season strong and I expect them to win the MAAC tournament which is on their home floor, the Times Union Center, for the first time since 2010 which was the last time Siena made it to the Big Dance.

I do have some smaller plays going tonight and you can check these out at topflightsportsinfo dot com.

Good luck tonight everyone and lets keep this thing moving in the right direction!
 
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Posted: #49
I will also point out, though, that trying to get people to agree on what they call a "trap line" is borderline impossible.  Its 90%-based in opinion, I would say.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:

in the real $$ world i call make a pick to a local
on cbb no way to get out of the bet.

Hey there, Nature~

If one really wants to get out of a bet and can't get out of it, one could do a counter-bet of the exact opposite -- that way one would be out just juice and not any unit[s].

Nice discussion here today!




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