Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:
- No playing ranked team against no rank. The upset factor
- No playing away teams. Home crowd is the 6th man factor
- No playing if their ATS record is poorer than opponent
- No Reverse Line Movement factor
- No playing if line is more than 10. The OT can't cover factor
5-5 $$$$
3-0 NBA
2-1 no$$$$
Cleveland State Vikings vs.Green Bay Phoenix
Cleveland has good defense. They allowed only 69 points per game in their last 10 games however, their offense is pissy poor at only 60 points per game. Cleveland can not ball at all. They are 3-11 SU when they are away and 8-20 overall.
These two teams played before earlier this year and Green bay whoop them bad in cleveland as a 3 point fav. How bad? How about 20 points? Lost
67 - 87
Their last 2 games, they got whoop bad by 34 and 23 points. When they lose, they tend to lose by double figures.
Cleveland is tied for last place in their conference. They just a bad basketball team overall. They have nothing to play for so they will probably end their season with their last 3 games being pawns of the industry.
Green bay is a team that is playing for ranking. They are 4th place and only 1.5 game behind 2nd place. They are 9-2 SU at home. They are on a 2 games winning streak by beating them at home. Their defense is no good, allowing 89 points per game but that is for teams who can ball. Cleveland's offense is only 60 points per game so even if you allow them 89 points status, that doesn't mean you are going to put up 89 points. Green bay offense is a beast. Putting up 90 points per game easily. What's this? Ranked 2 on offense only after Marshall?
What they have is a senior by the name of Carrington Love who has 18 points per game. Green bay is going to get it done as they can cover when playing at home.
The Cleveland State Vikings are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
The Green Bay Phoenix are:
- 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Monday games.
- 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Everything lines up for me in this game except for the policy of not playing a game laying more than 10 points. Short card today, nothing much else to play so I am going to put my money where my mouth is.
USc, give me green bay -13 for $$$$
On the NBA side, give me Boston -5
Earlier this season, Boston beat MN at home as a -7.5 fav. Won
113 - 99 Now they are only a -5 points fav playing in MN.
Boston last 10, they covered 7 out of 10. 1 game winning streak.
MN last 10, they covered 5 out of 10. 2 games losing streak.
Brosuf thanks for the post. I'll certainly take a look at this game but I have a question for the guys who regularly read/post in this thread:
How seriously should we take trends like the ones cited above?
I for one almost never consider a team's ATS record. I believe the books adjust to trends. What's more, these teams are not robots. Just because one matchup ends a certain way, I don't think that is an indicator of how the next game is going to go when the same two teams square off again.
For me it's more about how teams match up against one another, what kind of emotional state the teams are in, what kind of schedule crunch they're in, how they're adjusting to new personnel moves (see Detroit Pistons last year when they cut J Smoove and this year with their recent shakeup).
I personally never really pay attention to things like "the home team is 5-3 against the spread on Mondays when the temperature is between 22 and 39 degrees and they wear their alternate colored jerseys."
I was lucky enough to catch an interview with a pretty legit handicapper and he pointed out the Pistons were coming off a long layoff after the all star break, the Wizards had a game to shake off the rust, and the Pistons were dealing with a bunch of new players who they needed to figure out how to work into the lineup.
Wizards covered that game easily. Those are the kind of details I'm more interested in than record ATS. Anyone can tell me that.
Dig deeper!