read a well-written write-up on Holmsey's $$$$ thread on the desire for IPFW to win this being greater than that of the hosts.
IPFW are hungry because they're in a position to get the at-large bid from their conference. By contrast, WIU has little to play for except - as is pointed out here - the home crowd at the end of the season.
In that other post, the author even pointed out that the local newspaper in the town didn't even do the usual pre-game article on the game - implication is they have no belief in the team which is folding up their chairs and getting ready for baseball or whatever they do in spring up there.
So I bought (1/2) and got
IPFW (-2) at -120
and am riding with you on this Patrick, BoL
That said, if it is a trap game
There's a zero percent chance of ipfw getting an at large bid. What's their biggest non conference win?
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Quote Originally Posted by MTK:
read a well-written write-up on Holmsey's $$$$ thread on the desire for IPFW to win this being greater than that of the hosts.
IPFW are hungry because they're in a position to get the at-large bid from their conference. By contrast, WIU has little to play for except - as is pointed out here - the home crowd at the end of the season.
In that other post, the author even pointed out that the local newspaper in the town didn't even do the usual pre-game article on the game - implication is they have no belief in the team which is folding up their chairs and getting ready for baseball or whatever they do in spring up there.
So I bought (1/2) and got
IPFW (-2) at -120
and am riding with you on this Patrick, BoL
That said, if it is a trap game
There's a zero percent chance of ipfw getting an at large bid. What's their biggest non conference win?
Everyone else that is contributing info and positive discussion,
Appreciate it. Hopefully we cash this ticket. Like I said I took -2. Line is getting a little higher than I would like, but I think -3/-3.5 for a lower wager also is a decent fit.
I understand the line reading aspect of the matchup being..."if you have a really good team only laying 2 on the road to a crap team then its a trap."
However here is the deal with that:
1) If you look at the previous point spread when IPFW was at home and factor in that they are on the road, then the actual line should be IPFW -1/2. So at -2 its already slightly inflated according to what the power rankings were at that time. So its not like the line offered is a steal by any means. However, it also isn't asking them to cover by two possessions. It puts the line makers in a tough position because they can't make the line -6 or -7. So the line falls in a just Win sort of scenario which i like.
2) The other day I took Monmouth over Rider at -3 and was the same situation, 20+ win team on the road vs a 10 win team. Seemed really easy and Monmouth was up 9 at the half. First ten minutes of second half Rider goes on a 33-9 run and couldn't miss a shot. Result: Monmouth wins by 1 with a 3 pt shot as time expires and I lose.
The reason I bring this up is because yes it looked like I fell for a bad line, but the fact is these are 18-22 year old kids. Monmouth was clearly the right side but variance and how the runs go in basketball can sometimes go against you. If there were 2 more minutes in that game Monmouth probably would have won by 6 how the momentum was swinging back. Next day similar teams go head to head with a "fishy" line and I decided to lay off after the Monmouth loss I experienced. What happens? The road team wins by 20 as a -2 and I now feel like I lost two games because of Monmouth.
The point is this...This can very well be a letdown spot. However, IPFW has been playing some of its best basketball of the year. They can probably beat this team playing 75% as well as they usually play. I'd rather not overthink it and put my money on a team that clearly should win this no problem. That doesn't guarantee a win, but having money on IPFW win or lose seems like the right side to me.
IPFW $1k -2
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TSW, so are you taking WIU +3.5?
Everyone else that is contributing info and positive discussion,
Appreciate it. Hopefully we cash this ticket. Like I said I took -2. Line is getting a little higher than I would like, but I think -3/-3.5 for a lower wager also is a decent fit.
I understand the line reading aspect of the matchup being..."if you have a really good team only laying 2 on the road to a crap team then its a trap."
However here is the deal with that:
1) If you look at the previous point spread when IPFW was at home and factor in that they are on the road, then the actual line should be IPFW -1/2. So at -2 its already slightly inflated according to what the power rankings were at that time. So its not like the line offered is a steal by any means. However, it also isn't asking them to cover by two possessions. It puts the line makers in a tough position because they can't make the line -6 or -7. So the line falls in a just Win sort of scenario which i like.
2) The other day I took Monmouth over Rider at -3 and was the same situation, 20+ win team on the road vs a 10 win team. Seemed really easy and Monmouth was up 9 at the half. First ten minutes of second half Rider goes on a 33-9 run and couldn't miss a shot. Result: Monmouth wins by 1 with a 3 pt shot as time expires and I lose.
The reason I bring this up is because yes it looked like I fell for a bad line, but the fact is these are 18-22 year old kids. Monmouth was clearly the right side but variance and how the runs go in basketball can sometimes go against you. If there were 2 more minutes in that game Monmouth probably would have won by 6 how the momentum was swinging back. Next day similar teams go head to head with a "fishy" line and I decided to lay off after the Monmouth loss I experienced. What happens? The road team wins by 20 as a -2 and I now feel like I lost two games because of Monmouth.
The point is this...This can very well be a letdown spot. However, IPFW has been playing some of its best basketball of the year. They can probably beat this team playing 75% as well as they usually play. I'd rather not overthink it and put my money on a team that clearly should win this no problem. That doesn't guarantee a win, but having money on IPFW win or lose seems like the right side to me.
Hey tsw, IPFW is 19-5 vs the number this year...19-5. So while they are no lock to cover tonight I do think he has a ligit question as to why the number is so low. I'm from Fort Wayne and have had IPFW and the over basically on auto pilot all year. It has paid have so far. No game is a lock but 19-5 vs the number means that they have been undervalued all year and appear to be tonight as well. What say you tsw?
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Hey tsw, IPFW is 19-5 vs the number this year...19-5. So while they are no lock to cover tonight I do think he has a ligit question as to why the number is so low. I'm from Fort Wayne and have had IPFW and the over basically on auto pilot all year. It has paid have so far. No game is a lock but 19-5 vs the number means that they have been undervalued all year and appear to be tonight as well. What say you tsw?
Okay my new found friends. I am new to this sight. I have made 2 predictions thus far. One was really good. And the other was quite terrible..!! I will try one more. If I fail on this one - I promise to stop!!
Hofstra + 3.5 > NC Wilmington
take it to the house!!
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Okay my new found friends. I am new to this sight. I have made 2 predictions thus far. One was really good. And the other was quite terrible..!! I will try one more. If I fail on this one - I promise to stop!!
I do not think the team WI Have options to stop it, and just put the player Max Landis is tied for first place in% of Triples is a great brand for a player who is doing things right.
Give me IPFW -2,5 LARGEEEEEEEE
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IPFW only needs this win to ensure his pass!
I do not think the team WI Have options to stop it, and just put the player Max Landis is tied for first place in% of Triples is a great brand for a player who is doing things right.
Guys thanks for the positive vibes and good discussion. We got cash tonight.
I am not one to rub it in but after looking through TSW's post and seeing what type of person he is, I find it very unlikely he comes back to admit he was wrong.
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Guys thanks for the positive vibes and good discussion. We got cash tonight.
I am not one to rub it in but after looking through TSW's post and seeing what type of person he is, I find it very unlikely he comes back to admit he was wrong.
Guys thanks for the positive vibes and good discussion. We got cash tonight.
I am not one to rub it in but after looking through TSW's post and seeing what type of person he is, I find it very unlikely he comes back to admit he was wrong.
Pay no attention to TSW, all he does is spew negativity, i kinda feel sorry for him.
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Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:
Guys thanks for the positive vibes and good discussion. We got cash tonight.
I am not one to rub it in but after looking through TSW's post and seeing what type of person he is, I find it very unlikely he comes back to admit he was wrong.
Pay no attention to TSW, all he does is spew negativity, i kinda feel sorry for him.
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!! I will try one more. If I fail on this one - I promise to stop!! 
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