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IPFW -2, What am I missing?

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Posted: #1
IPFW is 28th EFG% in country / Top in the country last 3 games

WIU is 225th EFG% in country / 300th in the country last 3 games.

IPFW is 82nd Turnovers Per Possession in the country / Top in the country last 3 games

WIU is 204th Turnovers Per Possession / 323rd in the country last 3 games

IPFW is 119th FT% in the country / Top in the country last 3 games

WIU is 136th FT% in the country / 336th in the country last 3 games.

IPFW 22-7 and 11-3 in Summit League / Leads Division

WIU 9-16 and 2-12 in Summit League / Last in Division

And the line is IPFW -2???

I do not see any major recent injuries. Normally I wouldn't even question this line but I have had a run of losses in situations just like this...Team with inverse W-L records yet somehow the under .500 team wins and covers without a problem.

Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing?

IPFW doesn't have the greatest defense but up against a team like WIU that has an offense in the bottom third of all teams, that doesn't seem like enough to pass on IPFW -2
 
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Posted: #2
Try comparing home/road stats, overall stats mean zip.
 
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Posted: #3
You're using last 3 game stats lol, when ipfw played their last 3 games at home!  Moron
 
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Posted: #4
tsw,

I am not sure if you are aware of this but this is a forum for the sharing of ideas. Do you have your money on Western Illinois? Do you play for them? Is your cousin the bench coach? 

If the answer is no to all of these then why is it necessary to come into a thread and bash me? I literally wrote "Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing?"

You have provided some insight but chose to also personally attack me by calling me a "moron."

Thank you for the insight and thank you for also showing why 99% of the people on here are actually morons. You're most likely a long term loser. It seems that you chooses to belittle others rather than utilize thoughtful discussion to the betterment of us all...ie- what winners do.

Yes I have looked into the stats a bit deeper and compared the away/home dichotomy. Numbers aren't quite as great but I still see one team playing very well vs another playing very poorly.

In fact IPFW is 11-3 ATS on the road. WIU 2-6 ATS at home. Now I am not looking or IPFW to cover a big number, ALL THEY HAV TO DO ESSENTIALLY IS WIN THE GAME STRAIGHT UP.

I am putting 1k IPFW -2. Will you be betting the opposite side?


 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:

tsw,

I am not sure if you are aware of this but this is a forum for the sharing of ideas. Do you have your money on Western Illinois? Do you play for them? Is your cousin the bench coach? 

If the answer is no to all of these then why is it necessary to come into a thread and bash me? I literally wrote "Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing?"

You have provided some insight but chose to also personally attack me by calling me a "moron."

Thank you for the insight and thank you for also showing why 99% of the people on here are actually morons. You're most likely a long term loser. It seems that you chooses to belittle others rather than utilize thoughtful discussion to the betterment of us all...ie- what winners do.

Yes I have looked into the stats a bit deeper and compared the away/home dichotomy. Numbers aren't quite as great but I still see one team playing very well vs another playing very poorly.

In fact IPFW is 11-3 ATS on the road. WIU 2-6 ATS at home. Now I am not looking or IPFW to cover a big number, ALL THEY HAV TO DO ESSENTIALLY IS WIN THE GAME STRAIGHT UP.

I am putting 1k IPFW -2. Will you be betting the opposite side?



Ipfw lost their last ROAD game by 16. They're coming off back to back wins over the other 2 best teams in the league.  Perfect let down spot.
I may bet it once squares like you drive the line up, sure. 
 
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Posted: #6
I know from following this sh itt all year, but decided to check kenpom for luckiest teams based on stats. Ipfw is #f'n 1, western Illinois is 324.
Is that sharing ideas or is cherry picking "last 3 games stats" when that is misleading bs considering all were home games?
 
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Posted: #7
Well like I said I already took it for 1K at -2. I look forward to seeing you back in here to tell me you took a 2-12 team over the last two months +3/+3.5. The team they lost to on the road by 16 at least has a winning record and is decent.

Line certainly has the feel of a letdown spot but by you fading just to make yourself seem like a pro also has all the makings of a letdown spot. However, like I said I got the line at -2 and that is not much of a margin for this team to cover. Basically just need to win. Already has moved to -2.5.

Maybe if they were -5+ this could be a letdown but I am willing to lose money on a team like IPFW playing a team like WIU when all I need is a WIN.

Now I'm guessing tomorrow before the game I won't be hearing about how you grew a pair and took WIU. Its clear from all your "contributions" to the site you just bash people and call them losers and morons. Just wish it was me booking your money tomorrow.

Please don't disappear around 11pm tomorrow when this game is just about over.
 
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Posted: #8
Patrick...don't let this name calling get to you...the old universal law says what you hold in your mind about others you give to yourself...so  he is in fact calling himself a moron...
I looked at the home/away and it is close however last 5 games give  your team a distinct advantage....
Good luck
 
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Posted: #9
well said milagrosman, no need for the name calling at all, moderators on here if there are any should bounce these type of people off the board for any type of cyber bullying period. 
 
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Posted: #10
UNC Greensboro beat Wofford last week. Breakdown those 2 teams. Playing on the road speak volumes. Kids don't feel comfortable as they do at home..
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by GuelphGolfer:

well said milagrosman, no need for the name calling at all, moderators on here if there are any should bounce these type of people off the board for any type of cyber bullying period. 

Agree ..but will never happen ... been saying it for years ..
 
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Posted: #12
lol like tsw knows what the word dichotomy means.. also, i believe those stats all began with season numbers, then he showed the last 3 games dipshit. Why don't you get off here and go get your mom to cook you some pancakes? Find a job and quit mooching off of her too while you're at it
 
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Posted: #13
Tread lightly whenever you see a road team that has the much better record favored by 2 or less. Not saying they won't cover, but I have seen some really crappy teams cover when they are at home and I see that line in college and NBA. Do a little bit more research, and if you still like it, pull the trigger.
 
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Posted: #14
IPFW -2.5 looks good.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Lionmonster:

IPFW -2.5 looks good.

No reason for them not to look good at - 2 1/2 ...
 
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Posted: #16
Besides Mo Evans still being out i dont see any injuries or things like that either. I dont normally get sucked into these lines but i usually ride ipfw on these junk lines
 
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Posted: #17
Agree with milagrosman - if you like the play hit it - I personally like them at -2 as well and will be playing them as such. 
 
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Posted: #18
Patrick thank you for sharing.  Please don't let people like TSW upset you.  I have studied enough Psychology to know he is a very INSECURE individual, who attempts to increase his ego but belittling others.  This forum would be significantly better if we did not have to suffer people like TSW.
 
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Posted: #19
read a well-written write-up on Holmsey's $$$$ thread on the desire for IPFW to win this being greater than that of the hosts.

IPFW are hungry because they're in a position to get the at-large bid from their conference. By contrast, WIU has little to play for except - as is pointed out here - the home crowd at the end of the season.

In that other post, the author even pointed out that the local newspaper in the town didn't even do the usual pre-game article on the game -  implication is they have no belief in the team which is folding up their chairs and getting ready for baseball or whatever they do in spring up there.

So I bought (1/2) and got

IPFW (-2) at -120

and am riding with you on this Patrick, BoL



That said, if it is a trap game
 
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Posted: #20
yeah sometimes u just have to pull the trigger and trust your instinct and numbers. I bet them myself for 2 units, they have been a covering machine and if they lose Im ok with that. They already beat this team without Mo evans
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by MTK:

read a well-written write-up on Holmsey's $$$$ thread on the desire for IPFW to win this being greater than that of the hosts.

IPFW are hungry because they're in a position to get the at-large bid from their conference. By contrast, WIU has little to play for except - as is pointed out here - the home crowd at the end of the season.

In that other post, the author even pointed out that the local newspaper in the town didn't even do the usual pre-game article on the game -  implication is they have no belief in the team which is folding up their chairs and getting ready for baseball or whatever they do in spring up there.

So I bought (1/2) and got

IPFW (-2) at -120

and am riding with you on this Patrick, BoL



That said, if it is a trap game
Patrick good pick.  Always possibility of let down however to be called moron make zero sense.  I just put $500 on it parlayed with Islanders Devils Stars and wright state.  state is -8 on road- after taking them by 36 points at home.  Not a great road team- but defense causes turnovers- and easy points -  Got this one. 
 
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Posted: #22
IPFW has been a gem all season, I'd continue to bet on them until they go cold.  
 
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Posted: #23
It's a solid play. No need to overthink it. Play it if you like it.

I for one will be on them. 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #24
Agree with the board here. Usually I don't like to play road teams at all but talk about two teams trending in the opposite direction. Bol gents!! 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Damn that line jumped to 3.5 any thought on the furst half play
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