1/1 Results: Nice day to start the year, try to sum up the weekend on Monday. Good week regardless of what happens today...I will note one thing: I'm probably off of Western Kentucky for the year with no depth at the PG spot. With Peters being announced ineligible prior to yesterday's game, they now have only one true PG on the roster, and this is the second PG they've lost this year. This is not a team that can trot out shooting guards to play the PG spot with their style of play, it hurts them offensively, and the biggest impact it will have in this conference this year is it's perimeter defense, and it showed in a big way yesterday.
Sides: 37-20, +25.70
Totals: 23-12, +9.50
DNP: 44-35
1/2 Notes: Short on time again, just a few notes. Wake Forest would appear to be in a good spot with Gonzaga coming off a big game and opening conference play next week and they have to travel across country and play an early tip. However, the Wake Forest defense is awful. Against top 100 offenses this year (and they have only played 3), they have given up 90, 83, and 90. Gonzaga with decent revenge from a rare two point home loss last year when they were ranked 17th. I am in no way laying close to 10 on the road, but this might be a nice spot for some good offensive production from Gonzaga despite the travel. I value FIU slightly ahead of UL-Monroe in the Sun Belt as they have ridiculous talent, but they have been awful on the road and not much value in the +1.5 with some injuries. I have commented on both Midd Tennessee State and South Alabama enough this year, but will add a bit more. Even with the loss of Yates, MTSTU has enough offensive balance to put some points up on a horrible defense in South Alabama. USA had a solid nucleus returning, but they haven't gotten any better offensively and their defense has actually taken a step back. In their lone conference meeting this year, USA's guards continued their poor shooting, while they got some significant help from two bigs who put in 37 of their 59 points, which likely isn't going to occur tonight with interior defense and rebounding being one of the main strengths of this MTSTU basketball team. Obviously, I value MTSTU higher in the Sun Belt than South Alabama, and even though USA returns quite a bit, the better offense should come out on top. MTSTU playing with a bit of motivation and emotion too coming off a stretch where they dropped a double OT game, lost another game on a last shot, only to win last time out and build some confidence. Virginia's last six totals: 107, 112, 99, 111, 98, and 111. The listed line on this is 120. Virginia's coming off a game that saw them pick up the pace a little bit in the 2H due to being down by a sizable margin in the 1H, and they were a ton better offensively. They're coming off two losses, so a slight change in up-tempo might be present here. It's scary to envision the total going over 120 when the last six have come no where near close, but LSU is also on the second game of a roady, and their defense hasn't been anything special on the road and I don't expect that to change on the second of a roady. I like Illinois anything under a possession at home all season against any Big Ten team not named Ohio State. But I'm not playing them, and you can see why from their latest string of non-showing-up-ness. I value Portland State slightly over Idaho State in the Big Sky, and that's primarily due to Idaho State coach O'Brien's outlook on basketball. His belief over the past few years has relied on opponents attempting many three point shots and hoping they miss them. They don't guard the perimeter at all and he's the type of coach that thinks your going to succeed by doing the above. Furthermore, this was one of the worst defenses in the country last year at year's end with six seniors on the squad, and they appear to be heading that way again this year. Portland State's defense is far from spectacular as this was the reason for the Northern Colorado play last night, but they should have a better offensive showing here against a team more on their level, and they do boast a better offensive unit. Then again, they don't shoot it all that well from long distance, but this is a different style of defense. They'll have open looks from the three point line all day, it will just be a matter of knocking them down. In the last four meetings between these clubs, they've attempted 105 three's, and made at least ten in three of those meetings. It really should be the same tonight, they'll get up attempts, just a matter of hitting them. I can't invest in a spot like this (depending on the three-ball), but I can lean.
Bets
Middle Tennessee State PK (2 Units)
DNP: LSU/Virginia Over 120, Portland State +1.5
GL