*** Kenpom.Com and Final Four Connection ***

Hi All - In reviewing Kenpom.com data from 2002 until 2019 I see some compelling angles I feel worth sharing.  18 years of data qualifies in my book    

Total # of Final Four Teams = 72 teams (18 x 4)

In 13 of 18 years (72.22%), 3 or more teams inside top-20 adjusted-defense (AdjD) made the final four.

56 of 72 teams (77.78%) had top-20 AdjD ranking. 

In 17 of past 18 years (94.4%), the national champ had top-20 adjusted-offense (AdjO) ranking.  The lone exception was 2014 UCONN (AdjO =39).  It's noteworthy that had UCONN lost that game, the 2014 runner up Kentucky team would have broken the 100% AdjD trend.

In all 18 years (100%) no more than 2 teams outside top-20 AdjD cracked the final four.  In other words, *as of today* the likelihood of more than 2 teams outside top-20 AdjD making the final four is 0%

In all 18 years (100%) the national champion had a top-20 AdjD.

The current AdjD rankings of NCAA tournament teams are:

Loyola Chi (1), Alabama (2), Tennessee (4), Illinois (5), Kansas (6), Michigan (7), Utah St (8), Gonzaga (10, San Diego St (11), VCU (12), Wisconsin (13), Arkansas (14), UNC (15), Houston (16), St. Bonaventure (17), Rutgers (18), USC (19), Clemson (20)

Of the above teams, the only teams with AdjO inside top 20 are:  Gonzaga (1), Illinois (7), Michigan (6), Houston (8)

BOL with however you choose to use this information!!!  

Nice info... thank you

Really appreciate your thread .

Best of luck Brother 

True dat... have all those teams on futures along with Baylor, who had been top 16 adjD for most of the year but fell off the cliff at the end.  Could come back into form tourney time plus covid bs unknowns we just don’t know 

This is the type of thread that makes Covers a wonderful website. Thank you and wish you all the best with your March Madness plays ! 

KenPom also likes Purdue & UConn..I believe they are both top 25 in AdjO & AdjD. Don’t forget about them.

I'll give Ken a pass this year with Cov 19  not a good year for him . His original rankings on teams were way off and never could  adjust to what they shoulda been from start .Loyola Chicago Houston Wisconsin Villanova  .He has those 4 teams ranked 6th 9th 11th and 12th  forget it not even close.  those 4 teams will be lucky to win a game or two in tournament. 

BOL all!!  So pumped that the tournament is officially underway! 

@15815

GREAT STUFF, bud...appreciate you doing the work to share it with everybody!!!

Good fortune  

1 of the above 4 teams (Illinois) got KO'd but it's not surprising it came at the hands of a top-10 Kenpom team.  I love Gonzaga more than any of these teams to cut down the nets in April.  If Gonzaga faces Michigan in the Final Four, I see the winner of that game winning it all.  No one besides Houston on the opposite side of the brackets currently possesses both a top-20 AdjO and Adjd and I'll take my chances given the 18 years of sample data.  Cheers all. 

Nice info

very nice wish i had seen this pre-tourny

houston and gonzaga came thru