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Kineprofessor's Kenpom System

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Posted: #1
I recall in previous years that Kine didn't start this until bracket buster Saturday and then would continue on for the remainder of the regular season but for my own purposes, I am going to start playing it now.

A short summary of the simplicity of the system. FADE any home team favored by 6.5 or more that is ranked 180 or below in kenpom's rankings. The main logic is that the line favors the home court too much for these teams and that often times teams this bad are just ready for the season to end. If you're going to tail, be ready to play some BRUTAL underdogs. It's been pretty successful in the past.

Feb. 4 Plays: Wilmington +7.5 vs #194 Towson, Northern Arizona +6.5 vs #252 Sacramento State.

Best of Luck if you decide to use the system!
 
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Posted: #2
Are you sure its fade any home team favored...? I thought it was road team that was favored you fade.
 
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Posted: #3
I'm positive. The #1 point of logic in this system was the line inflation due to home court when the home courts of these poor teams do not actually create the advantage that they do in other conferences with better teams. 2-3 years ago this system was on fire. Cooled off a bit last year but I am going to see how it does this year. Best of luck if you decide to join.
 
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Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by wvu06:

I'm positive. The #1 point of logic in this system was the line inflation due to home court when the home courts of these poor teams do not actually create the advantage that they do in other conferences with better teams. 2-3 years ago this system was on fire. Cooled off a bit last year but I am going to see how it does this year. Best of luck if you decide to join.

Sounds right to me.  GL 

 
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Posted: #5

here's the thread

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=101275364

 
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Posted: #6
Thanks a lot raffchfd. I had forgotten that they must come from a conference that always has lined games. Glad to know the 2 plays tonight still apply. I will track all the plays from now until the end of the regular season in this thread.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by raffchfd:

here's the thread

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=101275364

 
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Posted: #8
Also, had forgotten that the system was tweaked last year and that the ranking parameter is now #165 and below, not #180 and we base the plays only off the OPENING number. We don't fade the favs that get bet up to the -6.5 parameter, only those that OPEN at or above the parameter.
 
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Posted: #9
Read the link that's been posted in this thread for the full explanation
 
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Posted: #10
Okay yeah my bad. I read on another link about it. I made really good money with this system two years ago. I didn't follow last year but the year that i did i hit like 3 or 4 7 team parlay.
 
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Posted: #11
 
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Posted: #12
not a good start...
 
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Posted: #13
Honestly, this system, while it has definitely made money over many seasons can be brutal.  You're basically betting BAD teams on the road to cover.  You will have some teams miss COVERING by 20+ points. 

The other thing that concerns me is that it was so successful in the early years, I have a hard time believing that the odds makers haven't adjusted their lines, at least a little bit, once some of these games actually started getting some action.
 
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Posted: #14
1-1 could of been worse
 
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Posted: #15
1-1 to start but with an outright winner with Northern Zona.

Very good points kdawgy. The losses will often not be close but that is the nature of the beast here betting bad teams as you mentioned. I will say tfor anyone following the system you have to bet EVERY play that applies. It's impossible to pick and choose successfully for the very reasons kdawgy mentioned.

No plays apply for tomorrow. I'll be back in the thread Wednesday. Good luck to everyone on their plays.
 
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Posted: #16

Yes I appear to be a newbie!!!!!

I'm actually a good capper who doesn't want any backlash from what I'm about to say.

Please do not post any KineProfessor plays until he posts!!!!

 

you disrepect his system and his name when you don't know exactly how it works nor the criteria.  everyone puts in their two cents worth and it's not the original system anymore, and you get all these idiots that should not be betting following wrong criteria.  the blind leading the blind.   then they blame you and KP.  so please stop.

keep the system to yourself.  if it works, good for you. the last few years the system isn't as great as it was a few years ago, plus, once everyone starts jumping on board, you end up with altered lines.  many games i lost by a half point or a point.

 

don't post KP plays unless he posts of gives you permission!!!!

 
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Posted: #17
Keep  posting  KP'S  plays.  
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by imalameduck:

Yes I appear to be a newbie!!!!!

I'm actually a good capper who doesn't want any backlash from what I'm about to say.

Please do not post any KineProfessor plays until he posts!!!!

 

you disrepect his system and his name when you don't know exactly how it works nor the criteria.  everyone puts in their two cents worth and it's not the original system anymore, and you get all these idiots that should not be betting following wrong criteria.  the blind leading the blind.   then they blame you and KP.  so please stop.

keep the system to yourself.  if it works, good for you. the last few years the system isn't as great as it was a few years ago, plus, once everyone starts jumping on board, you end up with altered lines.  many games i lost by a half point or a point.

 

don't post KP plays unless he posts of gives you permission!!!!


This is just plain silly. The poster has identified what his plays are based on and credited kp with the original idea. Kp choses not to play these until the very end of the season because he believes some of the benefit comes from teams with losing records giving up. That said,  he's a logical,  well spoken guy and I'm sure he'd have no problem with the pre-system plays being posted.

Some years they've done worse, some years they've actually outperformed the official plays.

There is nothing wrong with someone starting a thread based on a strategy that has been shared here and publicly discussed for years...
 
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Posted: #19
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by kdawgy:


This is just plain silly. The poster has identified what his plays are based on and credited kp with the original idea. Kp choses not to play these until the very end of the season because he believes some of the benefit comes from teams with losing records giving up. That said,  he's a logical,  well spoken guy and I'm sure he'd have no problem with the pre-system plays being posted.

Some years they've done worse, some years they've actually outperformed the official plays.

There is nothing wrong with someone starting a thread based on a strategy that has been shared here and publicly discussed for years...


Appreciate that very much kdawgy. As you said I have credited KP and his thread explaining the system is even posted in this thread. I just wanted to start this in case anyone had forgotten about the system and enjoyed following it previously.

While KP doesn't start it until after bracket buster weekend the last 2 years I have started in early Feb. and found success doing it that way. Obviously it's everyone's choice as to what to do with this but this is a site for the purpose of sharing information and angles to beat the books. It has worked for me previously so I am bringing it to people's attention once again. Do with it what you will. Good luck everybody.
 
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Posted: #21
I started playing the system with a couple of adjustments about two weeks ago and it has been killing it. I played both plays last night that are in this thread and actually added a unit to the N Arizona play because of the line movement (I have been charting this a little bit). The system is still strong but the opening lines have been stronger than the closing lines most of the time. 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by YACKER:

I started playing the system with a couple of adjustments about two weeks ago and it has been killing it. I played both plays last night that are in this thread and actually added a unit to the N Arizona play because of the line movement (I have been charting this a little bit). The system is still strong but the opening lines have been stronger than the closing lines most of the time. 


What were your adjustments if you don't mind my asking? Probably always smart to tweak it a bit from year to year.
 
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Posted: #23
Feb 4: 1-1 with UNA outright winner
Feb 5: No plays
YTD: 1-1

Feb 6 system plays: Bill and Mary +6.5 vs #189 James Madison, Miami Ohio +7.5 vs #173 Toledo.

Good luck!
 
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Posted: #24
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by wvu06:

Feb 4: 1-1 with UNA outright winner
Feb 5: No plays
YTD: 1-1

Feb 6 system plays: Bill and Mary +6.5 vs #189 James Madison, Miami Ohio +7.5 vs #173 Toledo.

Good luck!


God, I know the rules, NEVER try to cap the games or pick your spots because you will miss the winners. 

But it's still somewhat early in conference play, and I don't know if I can put money on Miami of Ohio vs a Toledo team that has one 3 straight and is projected to finish 2-3rd in the conference. 

Doesn't that defeat the whole purpose of the system, which is betting (blindly) against teams that have given up.

I'm so torn. LOL
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