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Kineprofessor's Kenpom System

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ryno23

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 3020

Posted: Feb. 15, 2013 - 11:59 AM ET #76

[Quote: Originally Posted by _action_] my thoughts on this, i am only playing against teams below #200. the adjustment last year to #165 was because KP thought that there were more crappier teams. so before i actually hear his thoughts on where the # should be, i figure sticking to #200 and below makes more sense (i think the dude who played this before bracketbuster sat used #200 and below last year). limited stakes for me. remember mls, 1st halfs, parlays and playing non-lined conferences are big no no to the system.

good luck guys.

[/Quote

action...i played pre system...from jan 17 on to end of month....16-9.

year b4...22-7

feb 1st...i saw last year and seeing again...system goins into 50% mode... i have backed off until saturday when it opens for real.

your take on the 200 and weaker is spot on in my opinion..i wont play any rated better than 180.(original system)

been sitting back and watching sisnce start of month and glad i backed off.

all guns loaded for start of real system saturday.

gl all ryno

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wvu06

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 238

Posted: Feb. 15, 2013 - 1:26 PM ET #77

[/Quote

action...i played pre system...from jan 17 on to end of month....16-9.

year b4...22-7

feb 1st...i saw last year and seeing again...system goins into 50% mode... i have backed off until saturday when it opens for real.

your take on the 200 and weaker is spot on in my opinion..i wont play any rated better than 180.(original system)

been sitting back and watching sisnce start of month and glad i backed off.

all guns loaded for start of real system saturday.

gl all ryno

[/Quote]

Thanks for the post ryno. I'll keep the 180 and worse in mind for next year if I start feb 1. At least it hasn't been a disaster. 13-12 is basically a break even proposition. Very slight loser.

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KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4616

Posted: Feb. 15, 2013 - 4:49 PM ET #78

Here is what I posted in my old thread last week:

I won't be making a new thread about this years system but for the few "vets" in the thread (for instance if you know what kenpom is you might be a "vet"), here is what is new this year.

I've been using the system all season to narrow down games to consider betting on with awesome results (ask Kapono how I'm running if you like).

The actual system doesn't technically start till next Saturday. The system guidelines change year to year based on the overall quality of mid-major teams (and bottom level teams from big conferences). This influences what kenpom ranking the system should start from (ie if you think mid-major basketball quality is down this year, then the kenpom ranking should go down and you might consider the cutoff around 160 for example). Obviously, if you think mid-major teams (and bottom tier big conference teams) are stronger this year then you would shift the kenpom ranking cutoff up, like around 200. If your familiar with the teams from kenpom rankings 150ish-200, ask yourself which of these teams do I want to be AGAINST when they are big home favorites against "inferior" opponents.

Also, take a look at the teams around kenpom rankings 250-300 and ask yourself how big a difference do you believe exist between those teams and the teams around 150-250 in the rankings. What this will tell you is what the "spread" cutoff should be. The bigger the difference you believe exists between those teams, the bigger the line should be to constitute a play (let's say +9 or higher for this example). The closer you think these teams are the smaller the line can be to make it a play.

Take the Wilmington vs Hofstra game for example. Clearly, Wilmington sucks and at kenpom ranking 275, the will always be a candidate for the system (both play on and against depending on the opponent). But how big of a gap do you believe exists between those two teams? The line opened at 5dimes at 6, which makes that spread too small to technically qualify for a system play, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't still look at the game and consider it for a play. In my opinion if you consistently lay the points in the above situations you will eventually go broke betting college hoops (that's not to say that Wilmington won't cover in this particular example but over the course of an entire system the EV doesn't justify the play).

The point of this post is twofold: 1. Just use the system as a guideline for selecting game to study and consider betting (always try to back the points) and 2. Based on YOUR observations of college hoops this system, YOU can manipulate the guidelines (ie what kenpom ranking to start it at and what point spread to start it at) at which to start the system. I might say kenpom 200 and point spreads starting at 9 or higher and you might say kenpom 160 and pt spreads of 6.5 or higher. We won't know who is "right" until after this season ends. This paragraph would actually make for "useful" discussion in this thread (I know that's a novel concept).

*if this post doesn't make sense to you, go back and read the first posts of this thread or just face the grim reality that this system is not for you.

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Here is what I posted in my old thread last week:

I won't be making a new thread about this years system but for the few "vets" in the thread (for instance if you know what kenpom is you might be a "vet"), here is what is new this year.

I've been using the system all season to narrow down games to consider betting on with awesome results (ask Kapono how I'm running if you like).

The actual system doesn't technically start till next Saturday. The system guidelines change year to year based on the overall quality of mid-major teams (and bottom level teams from big conferences). This influences what kenpom ranking the system should start from (ie if you think mid-major basketball quality is down this year, then the kenpom ranking should go down and you might consider the cutoff around 160 for example). Obviously, if you think mid-major teams (and bottom tier big conference teams) are stronger this year then you would shift the kenpom ranking cutoff up, like around 200. If your familiar with the teams from kenpom rankings 150ish-200, ask yourself which of these teams do I want to be AGAINST when they are big home favorites against "inferior" opponents.

Also, take a look at the teams around kenpom rankings 250-300 and ask yourself how big a difference do you believe exist between those teams and the teams around 150-250 in the rankings. What this will tell you is what the "spread" cutoff should be. The bigger the difference you believe exists between those teams, the bigger the line should be to constitute a play (let's say +9 or higher for this example). The closer you think these teams are the smaller the line can be to make it a play.

Take the Wilmington vs Hofstra game for example. Clearly, Wilmington sucks and at kenpom ranking 275, the will always be a candidate for the system (both play on and against depending on the opponent). But how big of a gap do you believe exists between those two teams? The line opened at 5dimes at 6, which makes that spread too small to technically qualify for a system play, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't still look at the game and consider it for a play. In my opinion if you consistently lay the points in the above situations you will eventually go broke betting college hoops (that's not to say that Wilmington won't cover in this particular example but over the course of an entire system the EV doesn't justify the play).

The point of this post is twofold: 1. Just use the system as a guideline for selecting game to study and consider betting (always try to back the points) and 2. Based on YOUR observations of college hoops this system, YOU can manipulate the guidelines (ie what kenpom ranking to start it at and what point spread to start it at) at which to start the system. I might say kenpom 200 and point spreads starting at 9 or higher and you might say kenpom 160 and pt spreads of 6.5 or higher. We won't know who is "right" until after this season ends. This paragraph would actually make for "useful" discussion in this thread (I know that's a novel concept).

*if this post doesn't make sense to you, go back and read the first posts of this thread or just face the grim reality that this system is not for you.

KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4616

Posted: Feb. 15, 2013 - 5:02 PM ET #79

FYI: Kenpom 170 and a spread of 8 looks like what the official guidelines "should" be . . . but that doesn't mean that I won't be against a team in the 140-160 range when they are a big favorite and it also doesn't mean that I won't be against a team in the 240's when they are 3-5-pt favs as well.

Of course, if you use some common sense along with the guidelines you can argue that the spread should be higher when dealing with teams in the 160-200ish and you could set the line much lower when you are dealing with 250 and higher (the Eastern Illinois v Austin Peay game from last night is the perfect example).

Last night, #283 Eastern Illinois opened as a 5 to 5.5 favorite (ended at -7 as money came in ON EIU!) over #309 Austin Peay. Of course, Eastern Illinois NEVER lead the entire game, trailing by as many as 19 points in the second half. So if you discounted this game because of the opening line, you missed a very nice opportunity and easy cover.

I won't be posting system plays but the "system" as you know it officially begins tomorrow. Good luck with whatever you set the Kenpom ranking and point spread.

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jgoldglass

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 16

Posted: Feb. 15, 2013 - 5:32 PM ET #80

Will you be posting any plays?

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j-walk

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 1746

Posted: Feb. 15, 2013 - 6:24 PM ET #81

The architect has spoken

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Wiskynation

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 48

Posted: Feb. 15, 2013 - 7:13 PM ET #82

Quote Originally Posted by jgoldglass:

Will you be posting any plays?

Can't blame you for asking this question cuz KineProfessor is one of the best on this site. However, read the last small paragraph in his posting. Wish myself he wud throw some helpful hints out there....but this year is crazy in college hoops!

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tom-jerry

Captain

Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 8771

Posted: Feb. 15, 2013 - 7:20 PM ET #83

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Gogic

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 125

Posted: Feb. 16, 2013 - 12:15 PM ET #84

Can someone who knows what he talking about define which conferences are "in contention"?? I can't find this anywhere and I'm sure I'm overlooking it somewhere.

Thanks.

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trigrdan

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 33

Posted: Feb. 16, 2013 - 12:23 PM ET #85

Quote Originally Posted by Gogic:

Can someone who knows what he talking about define which conferences are "in contention"?? I can't find this anywhere and I'm sure I'm overlooking it somewhere.

Thanks.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=101275364

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weimar74

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 1326

Posted: Feb. 16, 2013 - 12:37 PM ET #86

I took Rice, Fl Atlantic, TN Tech and TN Chatt

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moksha23x

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2010

Posts: 451

Posted: Feb. 16, 2013 - 12:58 PM ET #87

Quote Originally Posted by weimar74:

I took Rice, Fl Atlantic, TN Tech and TN Chatt

Northern Arizona +7 also............

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bigrubber

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2004

Posts: 980

Posted: Feb. 16, 2013 - 3:48 PM ET #88

Gonna give Tenn Tech a shot...

Thanks!

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JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26400

Posted: Feb. 19, 2013 - 4:11 PM ET #89

Anyone know how the first few days have gone?
Hope we have a few next couple of days,my days off,lol.

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Crashdavis565

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 15755

Posted: Feb. 19, 2013 - 4:13 PM ET #90

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Mobot

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 10

Posted: Feb. 20, 2013 - 9:36 AM ET #91

WVU06, why are you not making any more posts in this thread? I really enjoyed the imput on picks...looking at citadel +9.5 today

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weigojmi

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 166

Posted: Feb. 20, 2013 - 11:18 AM ET #92

Looks like Cit (yet again) +10 vs. App St. is in play. Being an alum, I follow app pretty closely. They should be able to handle these guys fairly easily...going to be interesting.

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11spread11

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 340

Posted: Feb. 20, 2013 - 12:14 PM ET #93

Weigojmj. I've been following App St also. Not an alum, but I road that HOT ....ATS....streak I believe it was about 8 games in a row cover. I don't think I can play citadel tonight. There's 2 games that came close.....729 J Madison + & 803 SE Mizzou St +. I played them last night @ +5 I know that's NOT enough to be a "offical" play But. When the total is set below 140 I've found these cover pretty good. It seems as if the tempo is high these dogs bust but with a slower game even getting only 5 they do OK. Jacksonville St with a KP # of 218 and Norteastern with a KP # of 164 I can fade. I've been fading teams above 160 if my team has at least a wining record and the total is set @ 140 or less. Both these teams have that and that's 1 reason why I can't play the Citadel tonight. GL with your App St team the rest of the season.

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mikeike

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 238

Posted: Feb. 20, 2013 - 1:41 PM ET #94

i think n.dakota fits the system +7 vs. n. colorado(247)

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Mobot

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 10

Posted: Feb. 22, 2013 - 10:24 AM ET #95

Looks like Dartmouth +10.5 over Yale fits the system tonight....WVu06 where are you???

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PorkyinNS

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 655

Posted: Feb. 22, 2013 - 5:40 PM ET #96

think this system should finish better than it's current 50%

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Mobot

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 10

Posted: Feb. 23, 2013 - 7:48 AM ET #97

VMI +6.5 against Marist...Is it just me or does that line seem off? I almost thought it would be a pickem....but then again I was big on UNC Wilmington against ODU the other day looking at Kenpom. UNCW got destroyed!!!....thoughts on VMI +6.5?

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Kineprofessor's Kenpom System

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