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Last2thirst NCAAB Season Thread

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Tuesday results:

 B.C. -2.5 (4U) 
Wake F +4.5 (2U)  

1 - 1  (+ 2 Units)
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Posted: #453
Playing some other Conference games for a single unit just for some Degenerate action but will not recommend on this thread since I do not know these teams very well and sometimes a 4-22 team wins 3 or 4 in a row all the way to a final in a conference and I do not want to be 'that guy' that recommends -10 plays and lose to 4-22 teams! LOL
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Posted: #454
Wed Plays:

Louisville +1 (2U)...impressed with how they are playing....lately

Boston C  +3 (2U)...NCST is really good at home but this is a neutral site and BC likes to bomb the 3 pts....3pts is an easy backdoor cover

Troy  -5 (3U)...Double Up if lose....beat USA by 17 1st time and get home court for this one again

Calif +9.5 ....loosey goosey shooting team that has been surprising ATS a lot in the last 10 games

Oklahoma PK (2U)...cream will rise to the top with the best player on the floor in this one!

Georgetown +4.5....I expect a dogfight and they can shoot freethrows

Marquette  -6 (3U or 6U) depending on how Troy does....they will push the pace and shoot, shoot, shoot....DePaul will be left gasping
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GL Last2Thirst
 
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Posted: #457

Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

Wed Plays:Louisville +1 (2U)...impressed with how they are playing....latelyBoston C  +3 (2U)...NCST is really good at home but this is a neutral site and BC likes to bomb the 3 pts....3pts is an easy backdoor coverTroy  -5 (3U)...Double Up if lose....beat USA by 17 1st time and get home court for this one againCalif +9.5 ....loosey goosey shooting team that has been surprising ATS a lot in the last 10 gamesOklahoma PK (2U)...cream will rise to the top with the best player on the floor in this one!Georgetown +4.5....I expect a dogfight and they can shoot freethrowsMarquette  -6 (3U or 6U) depending on how Troy does....they will push the pace and shoot, shoot, shoot....DePaul will be left gasping

3 point spreads.. talking about backdoor covers... The spread ain't 19. an_timeout faded.

 
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Posted: #458
One more play:

South Carolina -3  (4U) ....forgot about this team playing well and especially on the road.....Ole Miss is terrible on the road!!
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Posted: #459
Wed Results:

Louisville +1 (2U)  

Boston C  +3 (2U) 

Troy  -5 (3U)..

Calif +9.5 ....

Oklahoma PK (2U) 

Georgetown +4.5   

Marquette  -6 (3U)  ....Jesus, DePaul are tough with ATS covers....been taking them most of the year but my Marquette had to fight to win this game


Night=  3 - 4  (+1Unit)
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Posted: #460
Thurs- only two plays

Notre Dame +8.5  (4 Units) Doubleup if I lose on the next one
Irish need to impress and the Blue Devils don't......Irish are the type of team that are savvy enough to win this game outright when the Duke teams gets lazy 

Cal Irvine -4  (4 or 8 Units depending on ND outcome)....finishing the year strongly....check their last 4 wins....wow....against good teams and Hawaii is doing the opposite

BOL
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0 - 2 YESTERDAY

Heading to Vegas early tomorrow.....not sure how much I will post publicly, but I will try from time to time. Looking forward to March Madness....lots of opportunity there.

Cheers
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Posted: #463
Live from Vegas- Sunday plays:

Davidson  -3  (2U) Davidson needs a win to get in likely but RI is building a historic year for them..... I take the dog team on a low spread (-3 or less) in a championship if they are statistically solid and played a close game in the regular season....also 4th best Free throw team in the country and that is HUGE at this time of the year!

Tennessee -1.5  ....I expect a close game and the way Kentucky is playing, it has prevented me from upping my bet. Tenn has far superior FT ability so in a close game, I like the FT for 2-3 pts better when the talent is similar

Houston +4.5 (2U)....really like one of these two teams to really go far in the tourney coming up. I expect both teams expecting to win this championship and so likely it will be a close game given that Houston is statistically as good defensively and arguably better on offense and FT%. Winning by 5 pts in a championship is a big number when the two teams are close. I suspect Cinci will win and have the players to smother another good team, but I have not seen that play 'gear' in a while......Cinci is a legit Top 8 team in the country but Houston might be knocking on the door in the tourney

BOL....greatly looking forward to the draw. I am compiling my HOT teams and best statistics combos for the tourney.

I rate my teams different than many. Whats important for me in the tourney is:

1. record, point differential and the 'streak' factor in the last 10 games

2. Defense rating + Free Throw rating divided by 2(rank them)

3. 3 Pt rating + Offensive Rebounds rating divided by 2 (rank them)

4. Offensive rating + Defense Rebounds divided by 2 (rank them)

5. Coaching record in NCAA tourney

Then rate them as matchups.....take the better team to move on in the bracket....bet the spreads that are too close if one team seems to be more dominant in the matchup according to my rating. 

I will be sending my picks from Vegas based on this criteria and only for games where I believe Vegas has likely messed up...ALL THE BEST WITH THE TOURNEY!
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Posted: #465
NOTE: This should say...

Davidson  +3  (2U)
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Posted: #466
Results:

Davidson  +3  (2U)      
Tennessee -1.5            

One pending...
Houston +4.5 (2U)
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Posted: #467
Houston +4.5 (2U)  

LETS BRING ON MARCH MADNESS!!!!! Handicapping and final season ratings are being calculated. I will be posting my auto plays once I am capped fully with my analysis using the lines posted at that time(note, line movement does not faze me one bit at March Madness.....its all about preparation just before, so put in your preparation before the tourney and throw out previously formed tendencies in your mind......all the pundits will be throwing off all kinds of 5th seed vs 13th seed upsets, etc....pay no attention because capping preparation has NEVER failed me at the betting window ....will likely have something tomorrow evening late, since I am 3 hours behind the east coast now that I am capping from Lake Las Vegas. 

BOL with your bracket decisions. If I help out and it makes a difference, feel free to TITH a % of your winnings...LOL ....

Final Regular Season: since 1st wk Jan. = (281 - 245 - 12)......

+63 Units....
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Posted: #468
Well Done , Bud   
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Play #1 and thinking of adding if it changes to my advantage:

Stephen Austin +11.5 (3U)....if you followed me early in the thread, TTech were my Top 5 team in all of basketball. They still could be a top 10 team but this is more of a value play on a SFA team that did some damage last year and early in the year this year. And despite playing a lot of good teams early, they carved out a statistically 'elite' set of stats that are quite impressive including a combined very high level offense with a great defensive rebounding team. They will always be in the game with that combo. TTech will have to play like earlier in the year to put them away by 12 pts and I feel they can't because this SFA team is tight!! Wouldn't be surprised by an outright upset for the 1st round on Thursday. I might load up much more if it climbs to 12.5..

I will have more as I handicap my analysis, but right away for me, this was a MUST play!
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Not convinced?

SFA lost to Missouri when they were playing their best ball early in the year and ranked top 10 pre-season.....SFA lost 82-81....to back up that this was not a fluke, SFA lost by only 5 pts to Mississippi St. who started the year something like 13-2 out the gate!! This is a dangerous team that can hang with some good basketball teams.
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They also beat LSU 83-82
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Play #2 Thurs- Arizona -9.5.....would have bet this for more units if I got the open or 9 pts, but my tentativeness with Units allotted is giving respect to Buffalo's offense. But the reason why I am on Arizona is, like Michigan, they started the year so-so but got better and better to the point where both teams were peaking at the end of the year. I like this line better than Michigan's line so I am going to take it to pad my stats....at the back of my mind, Buffalo still has a shot to cover this game.
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Play#3 Virginia Tech -2 (2U).....like this Alabama team who is capable of putting up a tough defensive game vs a good team but this is a veteran Vtech team who has a motivating/into-it coach who will have this team scared about Alabama's potential. If Vtech plays close to the way they played vs Duke, this is a no-brainer and I like how they have played to get into NCAA contention in the last 2 months. ACC is better than SEC in this situation!
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Play #4  Houston -4  (3U)....it tells me something that I put Houston on my Power Teams LIST before I set out to fully analyze them. I know they have beaten two Top 10 teams this year and recently and that they stifled a very offensive Arkansas team earlier in the year and blew them away.......yes SDST is in peak form better than they have played all year but so is Houston and they have had a much tougher sched and stats to back them up. I do not expect a backdoor cover and I think Houston could win by 10 if they played their best vs SDST playing theirs....I have capped a quarter of the teams in the tourney and only Villanova has the more impressive overall states in the last 10 games and in general throughout the season
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