Play#5 - Thurs - Seton Hall -2.5 (3U)...an experienced team who just got back their best player from injury is a very dangerous tourney sleeper. They are used to playing in big games and perform well in those situations....also believe that these are the two best conferences in the country besides the BIG10....statistically, SH has better rebounding and 3pt play plus the experience factor means this could turn into a blowout if NCST gets down and discouraged
Play#6 - Thurs- Miami -1.5 (2U)....have a hard look at how Miami played in their last 4 conference games and you will conclude that they can turn it up when they need to and beat good teams that pose a threat to them for their goals....in that case was trying to get into the NCAA tourney....mission accomplished so I don't expect them to lay down to a very good mid-level team who is on a long win streak and has good statistics......expect Miami to use the same approach to this game as their last four and win a close one with a favourable line for them....also, Miami can play lockdown perimeter defense and have the more dominant rebounders!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play#5 - Thurs - Seton Hall -2.5 (3U)...an experienced team who just got back their best player from injury is a very dangerous tourney sleeper. They are used to playing in big games and perform well in those situations....also believe that these are the two best conferences in the country besides the BIG10....statistically, SH has better rebounding and 3pt play plus the experience factor means this could turn into a blowout if NCST gets down and discouraged
Play#6 - Thurs- Miami -1.5 (2U)....have a hard look at how Miami played in their last 4 conference games and you will conclude that they can turn it up when they need to and beat good teams that pose a threat to them for their goals....in that case was trying to get into the NCAA tourney....mission accomplished so I don't expect them to lay down to a very good mid-level team who is on a long win streak and has good statistics......expect Miami to use the same approach to this game as their last four and win a close one with a favourable line for them....also, Miami can play lockdown perimeter defense and have the more dominant rebounders!
Play #7 - Thurs- Kansas -14...action play....while I don't think Kansas should be a #1 seed statistically, they do have an excellent coach and some very good players but lets face it, this is a down year for Kansas and I have made money fading them. I do think that their form at the end of the year means Self has got into their heads that they need to play strong fundamental basketball and its working for them since they were letting too many teams into games ....hanging around. I expect a continuation of their dominant play with no resistance from a good Penn team.....but I WILL BE FADING KANSAS going forward most likely
Play #8 - Thurs- Gonzaga -12.5 (3U)....I think the tournament committee should be embarrassed by this seeding plain and simple!! Take a look at the Zags early sched and look how they dominated a strong St. Mary's team who should be in the tourney! Zags won 10 in a row and dominated their opponents by an average of almost 16 pts per game in those wins....and if you followed my thread, I WAS FADING THEM in January and into Feb but once they went into a tough STM gym and dominated them on the road, they never looked back and now they are tight as a fiddle ready to make the Final Four and give other top contenders a threat ....their first round opponent can ball but I see the Zags being too much in the 2nd half and dominating the scoreboard while NCGR tries to play catchup
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #7 - Thurs- Kansas -14...action play....while I don't think Kansas should be a #1 seed statistically, they do have an excellent coach and some very good players but lets face it, this is a down year for Kansas and I have made money fading them. I do think that their form at the end of the year means Self has got into their heads that they need to play strong fundamental basketball and its working for them since they were letting too many teams into games ....hanging around. I expect a continuation of their dominant play with no resistance from a good Penn team.....but I WILL BE FADING KANSAS going forward most likely
Play #8 - Thurs- Gonzaga -12.5 (3U)....I think the tournament committee should be embarrassed by this seeding plain and simple!! Take a look at the Zags early sched and look how they dominated a strong St. Mary's team who should be in the tourney! Zags won 10 in a row and dominated their opponents by an average of almost 16 pts per game in those wins....and if you followed my thread, I WAS FADING THEM in January and into Feb but once they went into a tough STM gym and dominated them on the road, they never looked back and now they are tight as a fiddle ready to make the Final Four and give other top contenders a threat ....their first round opponent can ball but I see the Zags being too much in the 2nd half and dominating the scoreboard while NCGR tries to play catchup
Wiseguy....its my first play at the Bellagio on Thursday morning. It sets up my whole day and plays during that day and next. If I don't cover, I will be Doubling up on Stephen Austin and have a triple Double up play for Friday to cover those if the worst case fails. I also plan on playing some ponies that day....Can't wait!!....
1st time at Bellagio Sportsbook!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Zags
Wiseguy....its my first play at the Bellagio on Thursday morning. It sets up my whole day and plays during that day and next. If I don't cover, I will be Doubling up on Stephen Austin and have a triple Double up play for Friday to cover those if the worst case fails. I also plan on playing some ponies that day....Can't wait!!....
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Zags Wiseguy....its my first play at the Bellagio on Thursday morning. It sets up my whole day and plays during that day and next. If I don't cover, I will be Doubling up on Stephen Austin and have a triple Double up play for Friday to cover those if the worst case fails. I also plan on playing some ponies that day....Can't wait!!....1st time at Bellagio Sportsbook!
It's one of my favorites . Enjoy Bud and Good Luck.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Zags Wiseguy....its my first play at the Bellagio on Thursday morning. It sets up my whole day and plays during that day and next. If I don't cover, I will be Doubling up on Stephen Austin and have a triple Double up play for Friday to cover those if the worst case fails. I also plan on playing some ponies that day....Can't wait!!....1st time at Bellagio Sportsbook!
It's one of my favorites . Enjoy Bud and Good Luck.
It's one of my favorites . Enjoy Bud and Good Luck.
Thanks man........getting their early around 8am to have breakfast buffet and then start betting at 9am Wife and the rest of the group are meeting me later around 730pm local to see fountain show and go for dinner....might be ordering a fine bottles of wine....Woo
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
It's one of my favorites . Enjoy Bud and Good Luck.
Thanks man........getting their early around 8am to have breakfast buffet and then start betting at 9am Wife and the rest of the group are meeting me later around 730pm local to see fountain show and go for dinner....might be ordering a fine bottles of wine....Woo
Play#9 - Thurs- Oklahoma +2.....lean.....fishing for +2.5.....but will secure 1Unit @ +2 for now....they will take advantage of a RI team who is solid but have issues stopping dominant players at times....if the Sooners have the right mindset, they should be in this until the last minute so having 2 pts in the bank is a nice start for the team that I think can surprise a little....might up this bet if it climbs for RI
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play#9 - Thurs- Oklahoma +2.....lean.....fishing for +2.5.....but will secure 1Unit @ +2 for now....they will take advantage of a RI team who is solid but have issues stopping dominant players at times....if the Sooners have the right mindset, they should be in this until the last minute so having 2 pts in the bank is a nice start for the team that I think can surprise a little....might up this bet if it climbs for RI
Play#1- CSF Fullerton +20.5 (2U) ...Purdue is not blowing away teams right now but will win this game by double digits most likely...CSF is solid statistically all around...
Play#2- Butler/Arkansas Over 151 (2U)....its rare for me to play a total and this one had me thinking it would land over 160pts so this is a nice number for 2 teams that can bomb 3pts all day and play marginal defense....one of the teams will get hot and score over 82 so I don't expect the other to score less than 70....lots of late foul shots too most likely
Play#3 - North Carolina -19.5 (3U)....UNC is only susceptible to the 3pter and Lipscomb can't harm them......UNC will destroy this team by more than 25 and have some fun to loosen up for the next game
Play#4- Murray St. +9.5 (2U) ...has the potential to put a scare and even upset WVU who are clueless when their shots are not firing and MST do play well defensively....one has to look at Murray St. overall statistical prowess in each category to really appreciate this team and realize that they only lost at a dominant Auburn homecourt by 4pts!!!
Play#5- Nevada -1 (3U)....not sure why Texas is in the tourney and don't get me wrong, I love Shaka Smart as a coach in an important one-off game such as this but Nevada has played tough teams most of the year and won!! Have a look at who they played for their first 10 games and ask me if Texas would have gone undefeated? And I don't think Texas has carried over their late Jan to mid Feb play in the last 2 weeks.
WILL HAVE SOME MORE PLAYS BEFORE THURSDAY relating to Friday but now I have to do my online pools.....
BOL
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Friday Plays:
Leans:
Texas AM -3.5....still studying for 1 Unit
Wichita -11.5....same
Butleer -1.5....same
Play#1- CSF Fullerton +20.5 (2U) ...Purdue is not blowing away teams right now but will win this game by double digits most likely...CSF is solid statistically all around...
Play#2- Butler/Arkansas Over 151 (2U)....its rare for me to play a total and this one had me thinking it would land over 160pts so this is a nice number for 2 teams that can bomb 3pts all day and play marginal defense....one of the teams will get hot and score over 82 so I don't expect the other to score less than 70....lots of late foul shots too most likely
Play#3 - North Carolina -19.5 (3U)....UNC is only susceptible to the 3pter and Lipscomb can't harm them......UNC will destroy this team by more than 25 and have some fun to loosen up for the next game
Play#4- Murray St. +9.5 (2U) ...has the potential to put a scare and even upset WVU who are clueless when their shots are not firing and MST do play well defensively....one has to look at Murray St. overall statistical prowess in each category to really appreciate this team and realize that they only lost at a dominant Auburn homecourt by 4pts!!!
Play#5- Nevada -1 (3U)....not sure why Texas is in the tourney and don't get me wrong, I love Shaka Smart as a coach in an important one-off game such as this but Nevada has played tough teams most of the year and won!! Have a look at who they played for their first 10 games and ask me if Texas would have gone undefeated? And I don't think Texas has carried over their late Jan to mid Feb play in the last 2 weeks.
WILL HAVE SOME MORE PLAYS BEFORE THURSDAY relating to Friday but now I have to do my online pools.....
What a great day at the Bellagio Sportsbook!!! Epic atmosphere, tellers and fun. I loved the mix of sportsbetting and horsebetting opportunities as well as the cheering....
Lots of underdog lovers betting but most of my wins came from faves covering except for S. F Austin. I played them for $30 ML and had others around me they were legit.....had fun until the last 5 minutes but we got the cover with a no-foul and no shooting play in last 25 seconds .....phew......the whole area around me sighed....I figured there was likely over $5000 at least bet on SFA around where I was standing.....great vibe....got to know a lot of cool bettors and people of all walks across the U.S..
I highly recommend everyone experience that.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
What a great day at the Bellagio Sportsbook!!! Epic atmosphere, tellers and fun. I loved the mix of sportsbetting and horsebetting opportunities as well as the cheering....
Lots of underdog lovers betting but most of my wins came from faves covering except for S. F Austin. I played them for $30 ML and had others around me they were legit.....had fun until the last 5 minutes but we got the cover with a no-foul and no shooting play in last 25 seconds .....phew......the whole area around me sighed....I figured there was likely over $5000 at least bet on SFA around where I was standing.....great vibe....got to know a lot of cool bettors and people of all walks across the U.S..
Was nailing 5pt Teasers at the Sportsbook.....cashed 11 out of 12 so here are 2X 5 Unit Teasers: (teased pts converted below= payout is +280 for 4-play, literally, which is what teasers are!!
OV Butler 145.5 + UNC -15.5 + Murray St +15 + Bucknell +18.5
My two teams that will put a scare in the other teams are obviously Bucknell and Murray St.......would have added Charleston but Auburn has the guard play that could all of a sudden get their garbage together and score over 90 pts and blow away Charleston....not betting that way but Auburn is a very dangerous team to anyone in this tourney if they listen and get motivated by one of my fave coaches....Bruce Pearl!!!
BOL TODAY .....heading into the Sportsbook today to cash some tickets and lay some fun teasers, play some horses and a ML play on Murray St......all my other plays are in online
Then heading to the famous Pawnstars pawnshop to buy some vintage albums and autographs of great players for my house:
So far I have signed....
Hockey Pucks: Bobby Orr
Wayne Gretzky
(need Gordie Howe)
Footballs:Joe Montana (got it personally signed)
person Butkus
(want Brett Favre and Tom brady)
Basebalsl:Willie Mays
Roberto Alomar
(want George Brett)
Basketballs:Michael Jordan
(want LeBron James)
Probably looking at $3- 4 thousand here but its been a good betting year and I figure I won't get this chance like I have right now cashing in and in Vegas
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
More Friday Plays:
Murray St. -10 (2 more Units)
Bucknell +13.5
Auburn Over 148
Virginia Under 120.5
Syracuse +5
Was nailing 5pt Teasers at the Sportsbook.....cashed 11 out of 12 so here are 2X 5 Unit Teasers: (teased pts converted below= payout is +280 for 4-play, literally, which is what teasers are!!
OV Butler 145.5 + UNC -15.5 + Murray St +15 + Bucknell +18.5
My two teams that will put a scare in the other teams are obviously Bucknell and Murray St.......would have added Charleston but Auburn has the guard play that could all of a sudden get their garbage together and score over 90 pts and blow away Charleston....not betting that way but Auburn is a very dangerous team to anyone in this tourney if they listen and get motivated by one of my fave coaches....Bruce Pearl!!!
BOL TODAY .....heading into the Sportsbook today to cash some tickets and lay some fun teasers, play some horses and a ML play on Murray St......all my other plays are in online
Then heading to the famous Pawnstars pawnshop to buy some vintage albums and autographs of great players for my house:
So far I have signed....
Hockey Pucks: Bobby Orr
Wayne Gretzky
(need Gordie Howe)
Footballs:Joe Montana (got it personally signed)
person Butkus
(want Brett Favre and Tom brady)
Basebalsl:Willie Mays
Roberto Alomar
(want George Brett)
Basketballs:Michael Jordan
(want LeBron James)
Probably looking at $3- 4 thousand here but its been a good betting year and I figure I won't get this chance like I have right now cashing in and in Vegas
Disappointing what they had at the Pawnstars shop for sports fanatics but their coin, painting and guitar collection.....my my!! My buddy is trying to work out a trade with a 1931 guitar! Pretty cool experience if you like Salvadore Dali and Picasso....
Well, I am glad I stayed away from the Virginia spread....it was a lot but in reality, they could have shut down UMBC if they wanted to and the players did not buy into their system. I could see it on the court. That team play and system they had was airtight many thought, including the coach but I guess not. Its a lesson to all athletes at every level....don't take what you can do and who you are every day because talent has to be 'pumped' by you and if you get enough not pumped, thats what you get collectively today which is a giant goose egg....its too bad for the coach because he is nothing but class and calm.
BOL Saturday everyone....starting to cap those games watching Missouri lay an egg....wow, another disappointment?
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Disappointing what they had at the Pawnstars shop for sports fanatics but their coin, painting and guitar collection.....my my!! My buddy is trying to work out a trade with a 1931 guitar! Pretty cool experience if you like Salvadore Dali and Picasso....
Well, I am glad I stayed away from the Virginia spread....it was a lot but in reality, they could have shut down UMBC if they wanted to and the players did not buy into their system. I could see it on the court. That team play and system they had was airtight many thought, including the coach but I guess not. Its a lesson to all athletes at every level....don't take what you can do and who you are every day because talent has to be 'pumped' by you and if you get enough not pumped, thats what you get collectively today which is a giant goose egg....its too bad for the coach because he is nothing but class and calm.
BOL Saturday everyone....starting to cap those games watching Missouri lay an egg....wow, another disappointment?
Tourney record so far: 9 - 16 (- 18 Units) That sucks!! Terrible!
Had a priceless time here in Vegas though....leaving tomorrow. Sorry for those that tailed.....leaving Vegas with positive cash but barely up $500 and a lot of that has to do with horses and 3 way teasers for $50 or $100 that I was playing throughout the day. I certainly won't post those because look what happens when I do
(-10 Units on 2 plays, though those were 5 way plays instead of 3 ways........truth be told, part of the reason why I was playing teasers is because if I really liked a game at Bellagio that I was going to bet live, the lineups were so long that sometimes it was iffy whether I could get my games in so I bundled 2-3 three way plays so I wouldn't have to worry about the lines....online is so much easier and I had those plays in already but its still fun having a wad-bankroll in your pocket which I started each day with $1000)
Will be posting some plays later....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Friday Results:
3 - 1 (+5 Units....finally!)
Tourney record so far: 9 - 16 (- 18 Units) That sucks!! Terrible!
Had a priceless time here in Vegas though....leaving tomorrow. Sorry for those that tailed.....leaving Vegas with positive cash but barely up $500 and a lot of that has to do with horses and 3 way teasers for $50 or $100 that I was playing throughout the day. I certainly won't post those because look what happens when I do
(-10 Units on 2 plays, though those were 5 way plays instead of 3 ways........truth be told, part of the reason why I was playing teasers is because if I really liked a game at Bellagio that I was going to bet live, the lineups were so long that sometimes it was iffy whether I could get my games in so I bundled 2-3 three way plays so I wouldn't have to worry about the lines....online is so much easier and I had those plays in already but its still fun having a wad-bankroll in your pocket which I started each day with $1000)
Plays Sunday: wow....what a great final game Michigan-Houston!!
#1 North Carolina 5 Units...in my statistical simulations, only two teams would likely beat UNC 3 out of 4 times and they are Virginia and Villanova.....so now that Virginia is out of the way, expect UNC to be loosey goosey and free flowing from their style. Coach Williams knows that that is best how they play and so he can now emphasize this without wasting valuable energy scheming them to face Virginia down the road who were their kryptonite! Texas AM does not play well vs a team like this....losses to Miss St., Arkansas and Missouri, also LSU twice indicate this......
-6 should not be an issue for UNC who hit FTs and own the air/3pt in this matchup
#2 UMBC +10.5 = 3 Units.....my golden rule, always ride the cindarella team if getting +double-digit pts.
#3 Auburn -1 (2 Units).....I think they are now over the hump with their funk and Bruce Pearl will remind them what got them there which is having fun and letting it go on offense.....they will
#4 Purdue -3.5 (2 Units)...the injury issue is the type of thing that Purdue will rally around with their older squad and I can see them benefitting from a stylistic point of view because their guards were dominating the style of play early in the year when they were playing tough out of conference games and in the Madness tourney, thats what will win it for you usually....Butler will have to go toe to toe from 3pt to have a chance.....I say they don't
#5 Syracuse +9 (1 Unit).....if you want a 5pt TEASER key.....here you go because double digits would be gold with this team who always get ready for the NCAA tourney and ALWAYS overperform but now the line is on the cusp of a poor line for them if they shoot poorly....their inside game and athleticism should keep them close
My ode to Vegas....3 way Teaser play (3 Units)
UMBC +15.5 with UNC -1 with Syracuse +14
BOL
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Plays Sunday: wow....what a great final game Michigan-Houston!!
#1 North Carolina 5 Units...in my statistical simulations, only two teams would likely beat UNC 3 out of 4 times and they are Virginia and Villanova.....so now that Virginia is out of the way, expect UNC to be loosey goosey and free flowing from their style. Coach Williams knows that that is best how they play and so he can now emphasize this without wasting valuable energy scheming them to face Virginia down the road who were their kryptonite! Texas AM does not play well vs a team like this....losses to Miss St., Arkansas and Missouri, also LSU twice indicate this......
-6 should not be an issue for UNC who hit FTs and own the air/3pt in this matchup
#2 UMBC +10.5 = 3 Units.....my golden rule, always ride the cindarella team if getting +double-digit pts.
#3 Auburn -1 (2 Units).....I think they are now over the hump with their funk and Bruce Pearl will remind them what got them there which is having fun and letting it go on offense.....they will
#4 Purdue -3.5 (2 Units)...the injury issue is the type of thing that Purdue will rally around with their older squad and I can see them benefitting from a stylistic point of view because their guards were dominating the style of play early in the year when they were playing tough out of conference games and in the Madness tourney, thats what will win it for you usually....Butler will have to go toe to toe from 3pt to have a chance.....I say they don't
#5 Syracuse +9 (1 Unit).....if you want a 5pt TEASER key.....here you go because double digits would be gold with this team who always get ready for the NCAA tourney and ALWAYS overperform but now the line is on the cusp of a poor line for them if they shoot poorly....their inside game and athleticism should keep them close
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