Last's Non-Conf Picks

Great to be back and ready to saddle up! 

Hoops time!

Half U = $60

TEASERS = $30 or HALF U

 everyone!

Play #1 - Charleston/S.Illinois UNDER 146.5 x 1U

- new coach for Charleston from Louisville and I suspect defense will be emphasized while the offense system remains a work in progress with a new coach

-SILL is a defensive team traditionally and were Top 70 last year

- Charleston has gone UNDER 146 pts in their last 16 games on a neutral court vs a non ranked AP team

- each of SILL's past 10 games have done the same also (UNDER 146)

Good luck this season my friend......

Well, throw that line of trends in the garbage with the UNDER for my first play.....busy compiling preseason info on each team and will have some more picks coming when something really grabs me. Going to be cautious.

I was too late posting OVER Kentucky-Wright St 160.5 ....but managed to get my money back and a little more

I also bet Yale -8.5 small

Hard at work inputting final results and lines/Totals vs each other..... Trends so far and will update as I input and still on Monday this week:

(trend must be high % or continuously winning or losing - I use DRATINGS )

#1- any team that is ranked 41-65 is perfect ATS with a spread of -21 to -25.5  (Over 5x this has hit )

#2 - any team ranked 91 - 120 is perfect ATS versus a team ranked 121 - 150th

#3 - any team ranked 41-65 is losing each time ATS with a spread of -16 to -20.5

#4 - any team ranked 121 -150 is perfect ATS vs a weaker ranked opponent and getting a spread of -6 to -10.5

Note: home, neutral or visitor court does not matter in the data compiled above

I took Penn St -22.5 x 1U earlier today .... 

Give me Ole Miss -22 x  1U vs Grambling

Give me UNC - Kansas Under 160. 5 x HALF U

          - Duke Under 143 x HALF U

Kansas-UNC is a track meet.....will look to capitalize on an in-game number...right now its 177.5 ...if I see 180.5 or higher....going UNDER

Ok...I am committed. I also bought Ole Miss in game -6.5 x 1U (changed when I got off)

Ole Miss might just lose outright, jesus. I'm on the 2nd half play with ya though. Lets see if they can make a basket or 2 this half 

Its the ONLY game that I have seen so far in doing my charting where a team ranked like Grambling is winning into the half.... things are going better now and is it wishful thinking to hope they cover -22 now? 

1 - 3 today on sides/Totals  0-2 on in-game plays

Rough start...I continue to work on my best trends of lines and situations .... only two games applied those metrics so don't read into a slow start. Will share best metrics when I am done

Saturday Lines and Plays:

 Play #1 - St. Johns - 22.5 x HALF U

Play #2 - Tarletan  +6 x HALF U >> last 2 years SH has won both games within 7 pts and I think Tarletan says 'enough!"

Play #3 - Kentucky - 23 x HALF U 

Leans: - watch lines and play tomorrow

-Seton Hall -10.5

-Omaha +20.5

-Cleveland St. +19

-Charlotte +14

-Richmond -9.5

-Arkansas +3 vs Baylor

-Western Kentucky +13

- Providence -23.5 << only if I hear Hopkins will be on the bench

Sausage

Ok, well, if I waited till this morning, I would have had vastly different lines but am happy with what I got because I am basing my plays on the data early on this Non-Conference period of the season.

Confirmed

Kentucky -23 > now -29

St. John's -22.5 > now -21.5

Tarletan +6 > now +5.5

Playing lines on watch on BET365 which what I use: - 5 PT Teasers $30 each 

KEYs: Richmond -4.5 with St.Johns -16.5  with:

1. Nebraska -20

2. W.Kentucky +17.5

3. San Fran +6.5

4. Cleveland St +27.5

5. Fairfield +21.5

6. Charlotte +19

7. Seton Hall -5.5

8. Houston E with Quinnippac +26.5 with Richmond -4.5 x HALF U

Laying off Arkansas because the game is in Dallas so now I lean to Baylor but who knows after that 40 pt blowout...

Reporting 2 - 1 on ATS plays

-wiped out of TEASERS due to Richmond loss

Have games and spreads inputted to the end of Friday. I should be caught up with tomorrow ready for next week and beyond....will post the best and worst line angles as I go every 2 weeks. 

2 ATS wins came from making selections based on those angles

Waiting on some potential line changes.....

Hawaii - SJST is top of my list on my radar .......Arizona St - Gonzaga is another 

Fairleigh @ Creighton << is this line going too high?

Based on my data analysis, I rate:

1. Creighton -36 

2. Hawaii -4

3. UAB -22 

Teaser 5PT >> HALF U > Creighton -31 with Hawaii +1 with UAB -17 .... mulling whether to take each one separate and will report later 

Sunday side play:

Creighton -36.5 x HALF U ... any team in the TOP 20 rated have not failed to cover a line OV -35  (4 - 0 ATS)

Play #2 Sunday - Wyoming -10.5 x 1U 

>> teams ranked 121-150th are hitting over 75% (13-4) and 5 - 1 ATS with a spread -6 to -11

Found this one once I got 5 days of data.....now I am cracking Saturday games and going to add to overall numbers! 

By the way....this should read -35.5 ....I look at it now and realize I hit the wrong digit key on my computer

It doesn't matter >> like their last high spread, Creighton is demonstrating they don't care about defense even against a team higher than 300th rank 

Play #2 Sunday - Wyoming -10.5 x 1U   

>> teams ranked 121-150th are hitting over 75% (13-4) and 5 - 1 ATS with a spread -6 to -11

UPDATE ON OTHER PLAYS TODAY:

Play #1 - Creighton up by 16 pts at the half....need them to win 2nd half by 20 pts to cash

Teaser 5PT >> HALF U > Creighton -31 with Hawaii +1 with UAB -17 << 

Play #3 - Hawaii -4 x HALF U >> teams ranked 151-190 are 4 - 3 ATS when favorite and 4 - 0 ATS with a spread between -2.5 and -5.5  versus an opponent ranked 230th - 280th

Ok.... data scoping and charting is working. It helps me to refine my selections to improve and maximize results

Saturday ATS = 2 - 1

Today ATS = 2 - 1   (+1U )<< BEST play hit (Wyoming)

- Hawaii just finished up and covered the -4 easily ..... somehow I knew Creighton would f$$k things up! First very high spread to do so that I put $$ on

Some days I may have no plays. My chart is my guide and their ranking. Otherwise, I don't play and don't care except to watch if available

Lets see how I do through the Non Con schedule. I will release my best nuggets every once in a while ATS ranking and spread combos that are hitting the highest %'s but realize, it will change and so only rely on most recent posting of these (1 week MAX because I can get an 6-1 or 4 - 9 result in one week. I am about to start Saturday and Sunday ranking/spreads into master. I just had a stock meeting chewing up most of my time this evening

Ok, the November Non-Conf chart is all filled in with every single game noted on my spreadsheet by rank categories that keep changing with results ..... I highly recommend using this site DRATINGS because its up to the hour rather than having to wait for Massey or Sagarin to update their data the next day

I have also accounted for spread results by rank and how they do ATS ....I am only interested in recording the favorite result to see which lines are tending to hit more and which ones do not correlate well with their RANKING placement that is updated constantly by that site above https://www.dratings.com/sports/ncaa-college-basketball-ratings/

My next project is to do TOTALS result per rankings correlation 

I will do a December chart for both and keep the results separate from November since we start to get into tourney play more and some Conference matchups...I don't want to skew the results

What I can tell is, what rank of a team in the moment TO BET and which ones to NOT bet based on the odds of success. For instance:

- your chances of winning an ATS bet no matter what the odds are as a favorite > only 46% teams ranked 41 - 90th

-teams ranked 190th - 280th are only hitting 47% of their ATS fave lines 

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What do you concentrate on maybe?

-Teams ranked 1-20th = 20 - 12 ATS if favorite on all lines big or small (lines over -35 are 5 - 1 ATS) and (lines -16 to -20.5 are hitting 3 - 0 ATS)

-Teams ranked 21 - 65th = a combined 43 - 33 - 2 ATS >> teams ranked 41 - 65th struggle with lines -11 to -20.5 > only 8 - 14 ATS

-teams ranked in the above ranking category are covering a fave spread of -21 to -25.5 at a 13 - 7 - 1 success rate

The most successful niche ranking category is 121st - 150th hitting 71% of its fave lines at  17 - 7 ATS

-when this ranking subset is the favorite and plays a team that is ranked 191st - 230th, it is  5 - 0 ATS

THE COOLEST SPREAD that covers the most is -3 to -5.5 for teams that are favorite and  ranked 151 - 190th =  8 - 0 ATS 

Of course, all of this will change (do not rely on this more than a week at most), but you can see why I am potentially picking what I am picking and staying away from bad lines or improperly ranked teams with certain lines .....but I will now keep my secrets to myself and you are welcome to spend hours like I have tracking all scores and rank changes so that the best matchup results can be achieved 

Only one play tonight....don't mind if the line goes up a little either

Give me Chattanooga -2.5 x 1U