Last's Non-Conf Picks

L2T.......

Thanks Fuse....on a cold run this week. Gut is not working. Going back to stats and being super selective until I get a better flow going 

IAd thanks 

I like some games today and know its tough early in the season to string some winning sides or totals so I am declaring today a DOUBLE UP Sunday and willing to string two games to make money:

Play #1 - Okie St -1 x 1U < Double Up play

Separate play (not D-up) > UNDER 132 same game x HALF U

-Seton Hall should dictate the pace and have the refs siding with their intensity on controlling the flow and defensive aggression during play

-should Okie St overcome this with shooting, I think that tips them to win this matchup

Play #2 - start of Double UP - Texas AM +1 x 1 U

Play #1 finishing up and is up and should be a win for Okie St. ....if push, same thing. Play above is a starting point and if Okie St collapses, play #2 above is 2U Double Up finisher 

Play #2 - start of Double UP - Texas AM +1 x 1 U 

No need to double up.....I am doing some parlays in local combos but nothing official here 

Like Oregon to win and think they can cover the spread but I am going to work on tomorrow's game and take the much needed $180 earned with no need to DOUBLE UP today

Indiana -9.5 x  1U >> officially 3 way weekly DOUBLE UP starting (If I lose 3 wins in a row, I drop 7 Units, if not, I keep rolling until next Saturday

- I know its Conference play and you have to be wary of double digit spreads....but....I have watched Minny and I find them to be uncapable of hanging with a team that goes on a run and Indiana tends to at home, and are playing well

Like Hofstra +3.5 x Half U  (no double up on this one)

 ....higher rank and they can play/getting points but Norfolk will be tough and they have been on a roll lately

Good luck...what does x half u mean?

Thanks UMAN 

HALF U = $60

1U = $120

Indiana -9.5 x  1U >> officially 3 way weekly DOUBLE UP  

Like Hofstra +3.5 x Half U  (no double up on this one)   << not over but have 15 pt cushion with under 4 min to play + points as well

Finally on a roll after about a 45-50% start after 5 weeks of betting here and there...... 5 - 1 in last set of plays

Looking at tomorrow and rank/spread chart analysis 

I had Hofstra!

Double UP play for Tuesday.

 > Play #1 - Tennessee -16.5 x 1U

Its my believe that Vegas is setting this line on perception as well as the fact that my rating system has Tenn at #3 and Miami at #132 and so far this season, Any team in the Top 20 getting a spread of -16.5 to -20 are 8 - 1 ATS  so I am going with my stats and hoping to cash in on a very solid Vols team once again vs a down year Hurricanes team

Looking at other lines and my analysis chart.....might have more

Just changed from 2U to 1U when I looked at my other side of my chart comparison

Play #2 - Charleston +8 pts x HALF U @ St. Joes

-ranks are almost identical and this Charleston team can blaze a streak of baskets ....yes, St Joe is tough at home so I am only making this one for $60 and not a Double Up play 

-I expect this line to come do so I am grabbing it now 

@Last2thirst

 Damn they got destroyed 

Leans as I cap....just using Ranking vs Ranking zone results (that changes and I update) and then vs Spread results ATS as favorite to make my determinations

Rhode Is looks good in my results of every game inputted> might be best to TEASE them to EVEN or + pts

Charlotte + pts also > caution that Davidson is a killer home team traditionally so again, best to TEASE Charlotte in my opinion

Play #3 - Duke Over 144 x HALF U and Duke -33 x HALF U 

-Duke is pummeling teams in their non-Con schedule and this is the first of 2 in a row before ACC play cranks up. I expect them to score well vs a weak defense of Incarnate and Incarnate should get 60 pts as their offensive stats  are dynamite. 

Duke 92 - Incarnate 53 at worst ...and I don't expect Duke to get under 85 if Incarnate scores 60 or more

-Duke plays George Mason and that one might be a game they work on their defensive play with GM also being good on offense and having a little more rounded game than 298th ranked Incarnate

- Top 20 teams are 11 - 5 ATS with a spread between -31 to -35 and 9-5 ATS vs a line higher than -35 (if it climbs over night)

TEASER 5 PTS $30 each and pay +$33 profit per win:

KEY >>  W. Kentucky -10 with  Providence +6.5 (Bryce Hopkins and higher rated team!)

1. S. MiSS +10.5

2. Wyoming +6

3. Wisconsin +11.5

4. Cornell +13.5

5. Penn St. +6 

6. EWU +18

Also:  Rutgers +4 with WKY -10 with Wyoming +6 

Providence +6.5 with WKY -10 with Portland +3.5

EWU +18 with Penn St +6 with DePaul +3.5

Got all of these lines in the past hour on BET365.....going hard on value tomorrow. When I do this, it doesn't always work out but 5 - 1 in my last set of plays and I took my time using my data that I record religiously every day and just need to record Friday and Saturday to be fully caught up since Nov 2nd

Tough night with ATS/Totals = 1 - 3 (- 1.5 Units)

-not sure what the story is with the Vols because in came, they got up to +17 pts and then stalled the last Q of the game.....they can be frustrating to bet over the last few years. Betting them to get the most out of them occurs when they play someone very strong 

KEY >>  W. Kentucky -10 with  Providence +6.5 (Bryce Hopkins and higher rated team!)

1. S. MiSS +10.5  

2. Wyoming +6    

3. Wisconsin +11.5   

4. Cornell +13.5   

5. Penn St. +6    

6. EWU +18

Also:  Rutgers +4 with WKY -10 with Wyoming +6  

Providence +6.5 with WKY -10 with Portland +3.5  

EWU +18 with Penn St +6 with DePaul +3.5

Just waiting on EWU now (Return back so far on Teasers = $315 - $270 = +$45 profit) << another $126 could be added

Hoping I get it and the evening is a wash and then I get to restart tomorrow with no harm

Double UP play to cover my loss in Tennessee > Maine +5 x 2U

-good stats on both side of the ball and they play teams tight

-Duquesne on a down year? Having trouble scoring

Fade play IUPUI +15 x HALF U (not a D-UP play)

-teams ranked 151 - 190th playing teams ranked 330th or worse are 8 - 24  ATS

5 Pt Teaser: $40 each

Ark Pine +17 with Kentucky -26.5 with N. Dakota +16 

N. Dakota with Kentucky -26.5 with Fresno +30.5

1st one has started ....just reporting I got this in 15 minutes ago...was interrupted by dinner 

Double UP play to cover my loss in Tennessee > Maine +5 x 2U    DOUBLE UP strikes again!!! When I want to make some coin to recover or get up some UNITS.... it rarely disappoints

Fade play IUPUI +15 x HALF U (not a D-UP play)  

-teams ranked 151 - 190th playing teams ranked 330th or worse are 8 - 24  ATS << DATA SPECIAL working again

8 - 4 ATS ...good day...even to poor, then great day. That's gambling! (UP some good units and account now around what I started in early Nov.) Starting to hit my selection stride ......and data providing

Thursday:

Double UP Play #1 - UT Arlington +8.5 x  1U

-taking the favorite goes against the spread bias I see that does not favor their overall rank and when a team of their rank plays a team of UTARlington which is not too far off of their rank ... in other words, its double negative in the data!

Teaser 5 pt: HALF U

Iowa +10.5 with UNDER Citadel 140.5 with Bethune +21

Not bad.... 9 - 4 ATS/Totals since I started my DOUBLE UP system

Thursday: Double UP Play #1 - UT Arlington +8.5 x  1U 

Losing occasionally on peripheral bets

Analysis - best ranked teams to win ATS in last while:

Teams Ranked 231-280th(ranks updated every 5-7 days) =  47 - 25 ATS in last month

Teams Ranked #1 - 20th with ranks updated regularly =  21 - 10 ATS in the last 2 weeks

Teams Ranked  191 - 230th updated regularly =  29 - 17  ATS in the last  few weeks

Stay away in general, to teams ranked  91 - 120th (31 - 44)  or  151 - 190th (62 - 77) over the past month

Hottest Fade bet >> bet against any spread that is -6 to -15.5 for teams ranked 231st - 280th = they are only 15 - 31 ATS

Hottest Favorite spread to bet >> 

1. teams ranked in Top 20 with a spread of -16 to 20.5

2. teams ranked  21- 40th with a spread of -3  to  -5.5

3. teams ranked  231 - 280th  with a spread -1 to -2.5

Friday leans/plays:

Indiana @ Nebraska << they have dominated the last 3 games between them and are traditionally a very strong home team

-watching this line

Play #1 - no Double Up > Boston +4 x Half U and Play #2  UNDER 127.5 x HALF U in this game > think I can get both but betting individually instead of parlay

-Boston has dominated their matchups and I see both teams play defense with Merrimack poor shooting but on a roll on the road because of their defense, most likely and grinding out some wins using it....what happens when they face a similar team who goes deep in the shot clock and can hit the 3pt? UNDER

N.Dakota @ UTSA > ND seems like a good teaser UP or tease the TOTAL because I think this will end up somewhere around a score of 77-75 and if one team dominates a little more, it would likely be UTSA and could see a 83 -70 type of score if so....I think Vegas is around the number where it should be for both TOTAL and spread but TEASING this one gives you an advantage

-ND can play defense....UTSA chooses not to but can...and their shooting can be off a little

W.Mich @ St Thomas - tease dog

S. Dakota St. @ Colorado - tease dog or take side....Colorado finally playing inspirational basketball on defense and SDST can play defense too

Play #3 and DOUBLE UP play heading into Saturday card if need be > SDST/Colorado UNDER 143.5 x 1U

-Nevada and Montana have shown the blueprint to beating SDST and that is frustrating their shooters ....and both those teams are good defenses against good shooting teams, especially 3 pt, and SDST is not good at 3pt so it will be a grind getting buckets in the interior l

Weber @ Utah Tech - 143.5 ....another good total to TEASE ....Utah Tech can defend ok and especially vs Weber strength which is 3pt shot UT do not shoot very well and Weber is good on both sides

-Friday night game that the crowd gets the most out of the defense for UT

GSouth@ LouTech .. 144.5 ....TEASE the dog and the TOTAL Under in my opinion....home team has great stats on both sides but not clicking lately and maybe they break out or maybe not?

BOO YAH!!! Got both: 

Play #1 - no Double Up > Boston +4 x Half U   and Play #2  UNDER 127.5 x HALF U  in this game > think I can get both but betting individually instead of parlay

Lets see if I get the DOUBLE UP play....

BOO YAH!!! Got both: 

Play #1 - no Double Up > Boston +4 x Half U   and Play #2  UNDER 127.5 x HALF U  in this game > think I can get both but betting individually instead of parlay

Lets see if I get the DOUBLE UP play....