Posted:
#1
Saturday: 6-9
Bad weekend overall. All of the toss-ups went the other way (TCU, Georgia State, late blown Maine cover)...until today. I hit my co-largest play of the season with Loyola (MD) -6.5 (other 3-unit bet was the SMU-Colorado State over on November 14th). Still sitting on an Arkansas State +10/ML play that is very much up in the air...
I'm obviously not counting it on my record as it was only posted on the 140-character site, but I feel much more relaxed after a terrible three-day stretch.
On to tonight...
South Alabama +9.5 (1 unit)
South Alabama ML (0.25 units)
I really love this Denver team and have selectively backed them this year (at home) with great success. They share the ball effectively and play a controlled tempo. Still, there are some glaring problems tonight. The first issue is a 7-day layoff. For a team like Denver, which cannot rely on athleticism (outside of Udofia) and needs to play with rhythm in order to succeed, a week away from game competition is likely a problem. As we're seeing right now with this ASU/Middle Tennessee game, top seeds often struggle against lower-seeded teams who have already become acclimated to the tournament setting. To be certain, South Alabama is not a particularly sound team and has a number of flaws. Adjusting from last night's up-and-down game against Troy to the more plodding style of Denver will not be easy. With that said, though, the Jaguars are phenomenal on the offensive glass and have a number of slashers who can get to the rim at will. The primary focus of Denver's defense is to shut down the perimeter (#9 in 3PTA/FGA), but USA has little reliance on the 3-ball. Denver has struggled in the past with small, athletic teams who can penetrate their defense; South Alabama fits that bill tonight. It's also worth noting that Denver has struggled mightily at low altitude. South Alabama will have a major advantage in fan support, as well.
Good luck to all.
Bad weekend overall. All of the toss-ups went the other way (TCU, Georgia State, late blown Maine cover)...until today. I hit my co-largest play of the season with Loyola (MD) -6.5 (other 3-unit bet was the SMU-Colorado State over on November 14th). Still sitting on an Arkansas State +10/ML play that is very much up in the air...
I'm obviously not counting it on my record as it was only posted on the 140-character site, but I feel much more relaxed after a terrible three-day stretch.
On to tonight...
South Alabama +9.5 (1 unit)
South Alabama ML (0.25 units)
I really love this Denver team and have selectively backed them this year (at home) with great success. They share the ball effectively and play a controlled tempo. Still, there are some glaring problems tonight. The first issue is a 7-day layoff. For a team like Denver, which cannot rely on athleticism (outside of Udofia) and needs to play with rhythm in order to succeed, a week away from game competition is likely a problem. As we're seeing right now with this ASU/Middle Tennessee game, top seeds often struggle against lower-seeded teams who have already become acclimated to the tournament setting. To be certain, South Alabama is not a particularly sound team and has a number of flaws. Adjusting from last night's up-and-down game against Troy to the more plodding style of Denver will not be easy. With that said, though, the Jaguars are phenomenal on the offensive glass and have a number of slashers who can get to the rim at will. The primary focus of Denver's defense is to shut down the perimeter (#9 in 3PTA/FGA), but USA has little reliance on the 3-ball. Denver has struggled in the past with small, athletic teams who can penetrate their defense; South Alabama fits that bill tonight. It's also worth noting that Denver has struggled mightily at low altitude. South Alabama will have a major advantage in fan support, as well.
Good luck to all.
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