Late 3/4 Play

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Saturday: 6-9

Bad weekend overall. All of the toss-ups went the other way (TCU, Georgia State, late blown Maine cover)...until today.  I hit my co-largest play of the season with Loyola (MD) -6.5 (other 3-unit bet was the SMU-Colorado State over on November 14th). Still sitting on an Arkansas State +10/ML play that is very much up in the air...

I'm obviously not counting it on my record as it was only posted on the 140-character site, but I feel much more relaxed after a terrible three-day stretch.

On to tonight...

South Alabama +9.5 (1 unit)
South Alabama ML (0.25 units)

I really love this Denver team and have selectively backed them this year (at home) with great success. They share the ball effectively and play a controlled tempo. Still, there are some glaring problems tonight. The first issue is a 7-day layoff. For a team like Denver, which cannot rely on athleticism (outside of Udofia) and needs to play with rhythm in order to succeed, a week away from game competition is likely a problem. As we're seeing right now with this ASU/Middle Tennessee game, top seeds often struggle against lower-seeded teams who have already become acclimated to the tournament setting. To be certain, South Alabama is not a particularly sound team and has a number of flaws. Adjusting from last night's up-and-down game against Troy to the more plodding style of Denver will not be easy. With that said, though, the Jaguars are phenomenal on the offensive glass and have a number of slashers who can get to the rim at will. The primary focus of Denver's defense is to shut down the perimeter (#9 in 3PTA/FGA), but USA has little reliance on the 3-ball. Denver has struggled in the past with small, athletic teams who can penetrate their defense; South Alabama fits that bill tonight. It's also worth noting that Denver has struggled mightily at low altitude. South Alabama will have a major advantage in fan support, as well.

Good luck to all.

Quote Originally Posted by YACKER:

Hard not to like Drexel but part of me can't forget that VCU blew out a red hot G Mason in the same tournament last year at the same venue.

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Drexel +3 vs. VCU (1 unit)

Quote Originally Posted by Eagles20:

Like the Gonzaga play and am leaning towrads Drexel as well.  See you are from the PA area and wondering if you caught the Inquirer article about Drexel and Givens in particular being banged up and "limping" off the court.  Gives me a little trepidation but still like the play.

Quote Originally Posted by Kaka123:

You posting through March Madness, Jfen?

Quote Originally Posted by YACKER:

Any feel for WIU/ORU?

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



I read what Jesron had to say but couldn't really find an angle on either side. ORU is really good, but I'd be hesitant to lay the 8 in what should be a pretty low-scoring game. Even when considering the grinding tempo, Western Illinois' offense is bad enough to have spread-killing scoring droughts and I have no interest in repeating the South Alabama fiasco from last night haha

Quote Originally Posted by YACKER:

I am going to make a play on ORU. Depth is an issue for WIU as well with 2 starters playing 39 minutes last night and 2 more getting 34 and 35. They also shoot the ball pretty well from deep which could be a problem on tired legs, especially late in the game. Close for awhile but ORU pulls away.

Quote Originally Posted by MadeMan4:

oh no.....  

I'm already on VCU -2 ......just can't pass up this spot even though I feel Drexel is slightly a better team.......ahhhhh. Maybe I'll buy out at +3 by game time.....???

Was also leaning St. Mary's..... What's your thoughts on the Zags tonight?

On the Denver over also and love that Riccio made this a play!

  Best of luck with all your plays tonight.......