The whole world is betting on Duke + the points (seems like common sense). And yet the line is up from -4 to -5, and why isn't it being bet down yet? The big money is on UVA! And on sportsinsights the line prediction arrow is pointing up! Hop on the Hoo steam?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The whole world is betting on Duke + the points (seems like common sense). And yet the line is up from -4 to -5, and why isn't it being bet down yet? The big money is on UVA! And on sportsinsights the line prediction arrow is pointing up! Hop on the Hoo steam?
Isn't 4 points a lot to be giving Duke? Who were only 2 point favorites vs UNC, and the JPJ is not as rowdy as Cameron. And 80+% are on Duke i think because that does have to seem like a lot of points
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Isn't 4 points a lot to be giving Duke? Who were only 2 point favorites vs UNC, and the JPJ is not as rowdy as Cameron. And 80+% are on Duke i think because that does have to seem like a lot of points
Isn't 4 points a lot to be giving Duke? Who were only 2 point favorites vs UNC, and the JPJ is not as rowdy as Cameron. And 80+% are on Duke i think because that does have to seem like a lot of points
3-4 points is the standard adjustment for home court. UVA has lost three home games in the last three seasons.Vegas has UVA as a top 5 team; Duke is somewhere around 11-14, which equates to the Hoos being theoretically one point better on a neutral floor. Give them 3-4 points for home court and you have your current line of UVA -5.
Duke was -2 at home vs. UNC. Assuming no major injuries prior to the rematch at the Dean Dome, you can all but guarantee the rematch will be somewhere around UNC -5/-5.5.
This stuff is formulaic. It's all based on math. I know this forum likes to think there's some smoke-filled backroom in the middle of Vegas where a team of mad scientists deviously concocts diabolical lines that drain the bettors' retirement savings accounts, but that's simply not the case.
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Quote Originally Posted by ProudJagsfan:
Isn't 4 points a lot to be giving Duke? Who were only 2 point favorites vs UNC, and the JPJ is not as rowdy as Cameron. And 80+% are on Duke i think because that does have to seem like a lot of points
3-4 points is the standard adjustment for home court. UVA has lost three home games in the last three seasons.Vegas has UVA as a top 5 team; Duke is somewhere around 11-14, which equates to the Hoos being theoretically one point better on a neutral floor. Give them 3-4 points for home court and you have your current line of UVA -5.
Duke was -2 at home vs. UNC. Assuming no major injuries prior to the rematch at the Dean Dome, you can all but guarantee the rematch will be somewhere around UNC -5/-5.5.
This stuff is formulaic. It's all based on math. I know this forum likes to think there's some smoke-filled backroom in the middle of Vegas where a team of mad scientists deviously concocts diabolical lines that drain the bettors' retirement savings accounts, but that's simply not the case.
Ok so I shouldn't be put off by the point total movement? Cause I thought 'under' for sure, with UVA dictating a slow tempo and only being able to score inside. I just worry about Duke being better rested
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Ok so I shouldn't be put off by the point total movement? Cause I thought 'under' for sure, with UVA dictating a slow tempo and only being able to score inside. I just worry about Duke being better rested
Line movement towards Duke but I agree this line is right where it should be. UVA will be thrilled to get back to JPJ for a huge ACC national game trying to get that Hokie loss out of their minds.
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Line movement towards Duke but I agree this line is right where it should be. UVA will be thrilled to get back to JPJ for a huge ACC national game trying to get that Hokie loss out of their minds.
Like UVA in this spot. back home off a couple of tough L's. They are in a tough stretch of the schedule and need a win here. Home court will help, think they get back on track with good defense here. Looks like 63% on Duke right now and the line opened at -4, its now 5..As tough as it is for me to say, i like the hoo's here.
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Like UVA in this spot. back home off a couple of tough L's. They are in a tough stretch of the schedule and need a win here. Home court will help, think they get back on track with good defense here. Looks like 63% on Duke right now and the line opened at -4, its now 5..As tough as it is for me to say, i like the hoo's here.
Line movement towards Duke but I agree this line is right where it should be. UVA will be thrilled to get back to JPJ for a huge ACC national game trying to get that Hokie loss out of their minds.
That loss will stay in London's hair forever.
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Quote Originally Posted by weigojmi:
Line movement towards Duke but I agree this line is right where it should be. UVA will be thrilled to get back to JPJ for a huge ACC national game trying to get that Hokie loss out of their minds.
3-4 points is the standard adjustment for home court. UVA has lost three home games in the last three seasons.Vegas has UVA as a top 5 team; Duke is somewhere around 11-14, which equates to the Hoos being theoretically one point better on a neutral floor. Give them 3-4 points for home court and you have your current line of UVA -5.
Duke was -2 at home vs. UNC. Assuming no major injuries prior to the rematch at the Dean Dome, you can all but guarantee the rematch will be somewhere around UNC -5/-5.5.
This stuff is formulaic. It's all based on math. I know this forum likes to think there's some smoke-filled backroom in the middle of Vegas where a team of mad scientists deviously concocts diabolical lines that drain the bettors' retirement savings accounts, but that's simply not the case.
Just curious what you're basing UVA being a Vegas top 5 team and Duke being 11-14 off of? According to vegasinsider.com Duke is only behind Gonzaga for odds to win the national championship at 9-1, while Virginia is 22-1. Obviously this will differ from current Vegas rankings since the futures take into account things like potential seeding and how they feel a team will progress over the next month, but that is a large disparity in futures. Just wondering where you came up with UVA being top 5 and Duke not being in the top 10 because this line initially looked high to me, even though it has come down to -4.5 now. Thanks!
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Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:
3-4 points is the standard adjustment for home court. UVA has lost three home games in the last three seasons.Vegas has UVA as a top 5 team; Duke is somewhere around 11-14, which equates to the Hoos being theoretically one point better on a neutral floor. Give them 3-4 points for home court and you have your current line of UVA -5.
Duke was -2 at home vs. UNC. Assuming no major injuries prior to the rematch at the Dean Dome, you can all but guarantee the rematch will be somewhere around UNC -5/-5.5.
This stuff is formulaic. It's all based on math. I know this forum likes to think there's some smoke-filled backroom in the middle of Vegas where a team of mad scientists deviously concocts diabolical lines that drain the bettors' retirement savings accounts, but that's simply not the case.
Just curious what you're basing UVA being a Vegas top 5 team and Duke being 11-14 off of? According to vegasinsider.com Duke is only behind Gonzaga for odds to win the national championship at 9-1, while Virginia is 22-1. Obviously this will differ from current Vegas rankings since the futures take into account things like potential seeding and how they feel a team will progress over the next month, but that is a large disparity in futures. Just wondering where you came up with UVA being top 5 and Duke not being in the top 10 because this line initially looked high to me, even though it has come down to -4.5 now. Thanks!
Just curious what you're basing UVA being a Vegas top 5 team and Duke being 11-14 off of? According to vegasinsider.com Duke is only behind Gonzaga for odds to win the national championship at 9-1, while Virginia is 22-1. Obviously this will differ from current Vegas rankings since the futures take into account things like potential seeding and how they feel a team will progress over the next month, but that is a large disparity in futures. Just wondering where you came up with UVA being top 5 and Duke not being in the top 10 because this line initially looked high to me, even though it has come down to -4.5 now. Thanks!
This is a very interesting point of discussion. The futures odds indeed seem incongruent with the power rankings that oddsmakers use to make the daily lines.
Here's how some of the power rankings see Duke and UVA:
KenPom: #2 Virginia, #14 Duke
Sagarin: #6 Virginia, #10 Duke
ESPN BPI: #2 Virginia, #8 Duke
Massey Composite: #8 Virginia, #11 Duke
Obviously different methodologies will produce different results.
The futures odds generally seem to be predicated on "tournament potential" rather than actual, current ability. Subjectively, most of us would probably agree that Duke has a higher ceiling than UVA in a tournament setting because of its slew of offensive weapons. But on a per possession efficiency basis, nearly all of the go-to power rankings sites think UVA is - at the moment - a slightly better team.
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Quote Originally Posted by THE_GOAT_55:
Just curious what you're basing UVA being a Vegas top 5 team and Duke being 11-14 off of? According to vegasinsider.com Duke is only behind Gonzaga for odds to win the national championship at 9-1, while Virginia is 22-1. Obviously this will differ from current Vegas rankings since the futures take into account things like potential seeding and how they feel a team will progress over the next month, but that is a large disparity in futures. Just wondering where you came up with UVA being top 5 and Duke not being in the top 10 because this line initially looked high to me, even though it has come down to -4.5 now. Thanks!
This is a very interesting point of discussion. The futures odds indeed seem incongruent with the power rankings that oddsmakers use to make the daily lines.
Here's how some of the power rankings see Duke and UVA:
KenPom: #2 Virginia, #14 Duke
Sagarin: #6 Virginia, #10 Duke
ESPN BPI: #2 Virginia, #8 Duke
Massey Composite: #8 Virginia, #11 Duke
Obviously different methodologies will produce different results.
The futures odds generally seem to be predicated on "tournament potential" rather than actual, current ability. Subjectively, most of us would probably agree that Duke has a higher ceiling than UVA in a tournament setting because of its slew of offensive weapons. But on a per possession efficiency basis, nearly all of the go-to power rankings sites think UVA is - at the moment - a slightly better team.
how abt this fellas, the game is way too tight to even bother betting lol two very evenly matched teams. Duke can no doubt win on their floor in VA. So the points smell good. VA can no doubt grab a 10 pt win, giving sure smells good. This could no doubt be a 3 pt game with 30 secs left...then who the F knows. So how abt watch it and enjoy it and dont bet it
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how abt this fellas, the game is way too tight to even bother betting lol two very evenly matched teams. Duke can no doubt win on their floor in VA. So the points smell good. VA can no doubt grab a 10 pt win, giving sure smells good. This could no doubt be a 3 pt game with 30 secs left...then who the F knows. So how abt watch it and enjoy it and dont bet it
u ppl make me laugh paying crooks a monthly fee to see some bs numbers oh my gosh how will i ever pick a winner i know ill go pay some dbag 12 bux a month too see how many points per possesion a team has kenpom sagarin bpi fpi wateverpi get real ppl how did people gamble on cbb in the 1970s without this kenpom??
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u ppl make me laugh paying crooks a monthly fee to see some bs numbers oh my gosh how will i ever pick a winner i know ill go pay some dbag 12 bux a month too see how many points per possesion a team has kenpom sagarin bpi fpi wateverpi get real ppl how did people gamble on cbb in the 1970s without this kenpom??
johnny boy we're just having a discussion about a game and trying to look at all angles while using as many resources as we can. Nobody here is saying OMG per possession stats say UVA will win by 6.2 so auto bet. relax bro.
JFen - I definitely agree with your point about tournament "rankings" being different. Are the 4 rankings you mentioned considered "vegas" rankings?
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johnny boy we're just having a discussion about a game and trying to look at all angles while using as many resources as we can. Nobody here is saying OMG per possession stats say UVA will win by 6.2 so auto bet. relax bro.
JFen - I definitely agree with your point about tournament "rankings" being different. Are the 4 rankings you mentioned considered "vegas" rankings?
u ppl make me laugh paying crooks a monthly fee to see some bs numbers oh my gosh how will i ever pick a winner i know ill go pay some dbag 12 bux a month too see how many points per possesion a team has kenpom sagarin bpi fpi wateverpi get real ppl how did people gamble on cbb in the 1970s without this kenpom??
you can do all that for free lol its called google...doubt pple pay for that type of info haha
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Quote Originally Posted by jonny_boy717:
u ppl make me laugh paying crooks a monthly fee to see some bs numbers oh my gosh how will i ever pick a winner i know ill go pay some dbag 12 bux a month too see how many points per possesion a team has kenpom sagarin bpi fpi wateverpi get real ppl how did people gamble on cbb in the 1970s without this kenpom??
you can do all that for free lol its called google...doubt pple pay for that type of info haha
johnny boy we're just having a discussion about a game and trying to look at all angles while using as many resources as we can. Nobody here is saying OMG per possession stats say UVA will win by 6.2 so auto bet. relax bro.
JFen - I definitely agree with your point about tournament "rankings" being different. Are the 4 rankings you mentioned considered "vegas" rankings?
I'm not suggesting that Vegas "copies" the KenPom number or any other math-based rankings, per se, but it's indisputable at this point that the opening line and the KenPom number are rarely more than three points apart. An overwhelming percentage of opening lines fall within a point or two of the KenPom prediction. You don't even have to wait for lines to be released to know where it's going to open.
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Quote Originally Posted by THE_GOAT_55:
johnny boy we're just having a discussion about a game and trying to look at all angles while using as many resources as we can. Nobody here is saying OMG per possession stats say UVA will win by 6.2 so auto bet. relax bro.
JFen - I definitely agree with your point about tournament "rankings" being different. Are the 4 rankings you mentioned considered "vegas" rankings?
I'm not suggesting that Vegas "copies" the KenPom number or any other math-based rankings, per se, but it's indisputable at this point that the opening line and the KenPom number are rarely more than three points apart. An overwhelming percentage of opening lines fall within a point or two of the KenPom prediction. You don't even have to wait for lines to be released to know where it's going to open.
all im saying nvm these stupid touts u like a pick u take the pick not cuz some site says one team has a better adjusted deffense not trying to be disrespectfull
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all im saying nvm these stupid touts u like a pick u take the pick not cuz some site says one team has a better adjusted deffense not trying to be disrespectfull
bpi fpi wateverpi get real ppl how did people gamble on cbb in the 1970s without this kenpom??
Whats your point? They used whatever information was available in the 70s, nowadays this is what is available and it's better than anything we had prior. Are you also mad that Vegas books dont use chalkboards to post lines anymore?
And 100% fact, books use kenpom as a starting point or at a minimum, a guide.
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Quote Originally Posted by jonny_boy717:
bpi fpi wateverpi get real ppl how did people gamble on cbb in the 1970s without this kenpom??
Whats your point? They used whatever information was available in the 70s, nowadays this is what is available and it's better than anything we had prior. Are you also mad that Vegas books dont use chalkboards to post lines anymore?
And 100% fact, books use kenpom as a starting point or at a minimum, a guide.
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