LONGHORNHOOSIER - NCAAB - March 24, 2023

I have not posted much on NCAAB this season, and I focus mainly on NCAAF.  But, I could not resist...today...

Texas -4 - Xavier sans their best player...in forward Zach Freemantle,  and I know it has been factored into the line...However, Texas is on a mission, and playing for Coach Terry, who they want as their  coach going forward.   Yes, a homer pick, and yes Sean Miller is an excellent coach, just my horns TCB and advance...Take Texas for the cover with the reasonable chalk! 

Houston -7.5 - May be slightly inflated line, but Da U is about to run into a buzz saw...That and its a big time down year in the ACC...Houston's D is going to suffocate Miami's offense...It will be a slow, low scoring grinding game that will play into the hands of Houston.  2 outstanding coaches.  I just think Houston is focussed to get to the Final Four which will be played in Houston...All that plus Miami is a public dog... and the spread bumped from 7 to 7.5...I know what that means...Houston for the cover!  

GLTA!  LHH

Freemantle is not Xavier’s best player. Maybe 4th best. X defense has significantly improved since Freemantle went out a month and a half ago. Offensively, it’s a bit of a hit, but it’s still an elite offense. 

I expect a battle. Foul trouble would be worrisome for Xavier, as they want to basically play 6 deep. But Xavier’s length inside is going to give Texas trouble. Should go down to the wire. 

Great insights from both sides, love getting intel from folks that follow their teams closely. Thank you for sharing your thoughts guys. I've been mulling this one over but think it will be a no play, watch the 1H, and possibly put in something at halftime.

 Back

GL @LonghornHoosier

Thanks for your take…In all due respect, losing 16 ppg and 9 rebounds a game is a huge loss in Fremantle.  That’s almost a double double…I do think it will be a close game for 35 minutes with Texas pulling away and winning and covering in the end.  Good luck on your other picks.   Hook em Horns!  LHH

Thanks Mac!  Football season is coming soon!  GL for the remainder of MM!

@LonghornHoosier

 Certainly was a big hit early on, but the emergence of Jerome Hunter (he had a career high 24? Points in this tournament already) with increased minutes has helped offset it. And defensively, Hunter has been a massive upgrade. I’m a fan of Freemantle, but he was routinely the guy who other teams circled to exploit on the defensive end. He’s not big enough to handle true 5s and can’t move with PFs/wings. He really was a massive part of the reason X had to simply outscore teams early on, but things have really picked up on that end of the floor. We aren’t as good defensively as Texas, but it’s been a huge improvement. 

I think a couple keys will be how tightly the game is officiated (we aren’t deep) and whether we can shoot around our normal percentages from deep. Nunge is a mismatch down low for Texas’ bigs, but ultimately we will have to make some long balls to pull it off. 

Seems like 75-80% of the money is on Texas, yet the line is moving the other way. I expect this one to go all the way to the wire. It’s March, and I think casual fans are going to have a lot of fun watching while those of us who are fans of either team will be sweating.