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madness

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Posted: #26
Good Luck today   
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #27
So much madness going down out there bros.  Cinci choke was truly epic.

Cuse lol mich state was miserable.  Shoot
25% and only lose by 2, my lord.  Gotta think duke puts an end to this.

And leonard hamilton still in it, what a terrible job by xavier.  

Regarding clemson game, thought it was so weird that they were dogged, but goes to show no sense fretting much over a near-pickem line.  Still was a weird line tho

I locked in a sweet 16 play now, its just not possible that i could lay off nova at this number in this matchup, and cant see line going down from this.  Who knows tho with this madness

1.1 / 1

Nova -5 vs west v
 
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Posted: #28
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #29
eh see if I can botch the NIT again

1.13 / 1

Okla St -6 vs. wku

I like wku's team, but this looks like real tough spot.  Played late west coast games couple days again then fly to stillwater.  As dangerous as wku's talent is, it wasnt too long ago that a couple road games really got away from them (last 2 games of reg season got ugly).  Just cant see them overcoming the tough spot in very tough road environment
 
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Posted: #30
1.04 / 1

Utah +6.5 @ st mary's

Utah has a pretty decent vet team and I dont see much reason to think they wont be real competitive here.  Gael's just had a lights out shooting game and barely won, we'll see

gl
 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32

Cap.....peace_5

 
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Posted: #33
paid for going against a team I'm high on in wku, alas


sweet 16

2.04 / 2

Loyola +1.5 vs. nevada

This is the game I feel a bit better about than the others so doubled down.  Feel confident backing this team, very impressed how they move the ball and get good looks.  I think nevada's length could effect them a bit but the pack really arent a great defensive team, ramblers are patient enough to still get good looks I would think.  Being able to go inside to Krutwig makes them a bit more balanced.   

And while nevada are freakin gamers for sure, they've now fallen down by double digits in 5 straight games. Clearly they've been hitting a rough patch in these recent games where they fail to get easy buckets for an extended stretch.  Just a very dangerous trend against a team so patient and methodical, think Loyola would be real tough to come back on should this continue.  


1.05 / 1

Michigan -3 vs. texas am

The superior coach, the team more likely to shoot well, and the less sloppy team.  Mich has been solid on the D boards and protects the ball, should be able to keep tex am out of transition unlike unc.  That said, aggies size and athletiscm is certainly a wildcard.  Just dont see them executing as well, assuming michigan plays more the like the team they were entering the tourney.   


1.1 / 1

Nova -5 vs. west v

Just can't see nova struggling too bad with the press, and I'll pay to see west v execute well enough to win, so take my chances with the number.  West V showed too many times a failure to execute down the stretch against the mentally tougher teams.  Kansas had these dudes bent over 3 different times down the stretch, and nova is damn mentally tough.
 

1.07 / 1

Duke -11.5 vs. cuse

enough already lol.  What happens when a team actually hits some damn shots and gets cuse on the ropes?  Once cuse cant rely on a mucked up brickfest to keep them in range, gotta think they wont have the horses to catch up.  
Duke with plenty of prep for a zone they've already seen.  Bigs to do work on the o boards and get cuse in foul trouble.  Granted it was at cameron, but they beat cuse by 16 while only going 2 for 18 from 3.  What happens if they make some.   See upside for a 20+ handling if duke hits shots reasonably in addition to the bigs doing work.  I also like that cuse likely wont get to the line near as effectively here as duke doesnt foul much.  
  
I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that cuse will stick it to me one or another, probably of the backdoor variety this time.  

gl bros
 
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Posted: #34
13-8 +5.21 record update

you know, if cuse wasnt such a cot damn gaggle of utterly cusey bastar.ds I'd be having a much better tourney.  Freakin cuse man 



way I see it, this will be probably the last time I feel pretty damn confident in a game this year, with only a handful left.  So doubled down again on the 'blers

2.1 / 2

Loyola +1 vs. kan st

kansas state is clearly a pretty good team and they've stepped it up on D, really mucking these games up.  That said, loyola has pretty much proven they'll get their looks against a tough D.  

Only 2 games ago Kansas st only managed 4 assists vs umbc.  In the tourney, loyola has 51 assists in the 3 games compared to kansas st's 28.  Based off the numbers and the eye test, loyola moves the ball damn well in a very villanova-ish manner, and should consistently generate better looks than k st in this game.  

Also tho, I've seen kansas st crap the bed a few too many times, and just generally not come thru in their tougher games (0-7 vs the top 3 in big12 (kan, west v, t tech)).  Kentucky was probably their best win of the year, and one could argue the kentucky freshmen did in fact "drink that poison", given they fell down 13-1 to start game.  Dont want to take too much away from that win tho, kan st are clearly playing tough D right now.

K St looked terrible offensively in the quick turnaround game last saturday, so hoping they're less crisp than the kentucky game in this quick turnaround spot.  Given how clutch loyola has been, if it's too close for comfort I'm more confident loyola will come thru in the clutch.   I got the feeling when nevada made their comeback and loyola had a long string of empty possessions that their length was starting to bother loyola a bit, but kansas state really doesnt have that kind of advantage here.  

With a healthy wade, I wouldnt double down but would still play loyola.  It'll be a pretty bad look if kansas state is in the final 4 this year, to me at least.  Not feeling that.  


1.05 / 1

Michigan -4 vs. fsu

In theory, a team that gives up plenty of 3's and needs to run to be most effective, is not a bad matchup for michigan.  
The thing with fsu, they are such a wildcard.  It's possible mich hits a stretch where the fsu press does damage.  Texas a&m was freakin horrible, and fsu will be much more dangerous.  
Ultimately, it's beilein vs hamilton, and michigan has shown to protect the ball and clean the D boards sufficiently which would help keep fsu in the half court more.  Take my chances with the number since I see mich winning the game.  

gl bros
 
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Posted: #35
Playing both..........
 
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Posted: #36
aiht got action on this NIT champ game


1.2 / 1

Penn St -3 vs. utah

Theyve look pretty champly out there, think there's more upside with their top players than utah's.  More chance for lions to pull away than other way around, Utah got handled by 10+ this year significantly more than the lions

gl
 
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Posted: #37
lol alright I will take some action 

1.09 / 1

Loyola +5.5 vs. mich


This is such a tough game, nearly just sat it out.  Def sitting out the nova game.  
Ultimately, I dont see reason to think the ramblers wont be competitive in a low possession type game.  And while michigan is kind of scary to go against, they really have only looked scary good in 1 out of 4 tourney games, and that was against a terribly unprepared and poorly coached texas a&m team.  So take my chances the points will hold up in a competitive game.  

gl
 
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Posted: #38
GL cap, might play the under
 
 
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Posted: #39
i knew all week I shouldnt push my luck with the ramblers but caved in late for some final action.  As if I can really afford that

No interest in betting on the champ game, or frankly even watching.   It sets up kind of bitterly for me, as I took nova in my office pool bracket as I've done for like 6 years in a rrow, but have no chance to win the pool this time.  And michigan hasnt looked good enough in the tourney really for me to respect them as champs,, not that it matters, just how I feel about their easy path and not looking great doing it.  


finish a crap season with record of 148-145-4: -8.57 (6-7 on 2 unit bets).  

wack a$s season.  This was the first year I was truly on the ropes in a significant hole, and it was a miserable experience.  I take minor solace in that I had some well capped games in this thread to minimize the damage somehwat, I redeemed myself somewhat with the 2 unit plays after a disaster 1-6 start (a couple of the L's were BS too due to key players being out), and I didnt fall into some desperate 10 unit chasing crap once I fell in a hole that the majority of the degenerates do.  Other than that, this year was a disaster for me


Ultimately, I deserved to end the year on a losing bet.  I need to change how I do things a bit next season if I'm going to win again

I dont really bet other sports, so long long offseason ahead for me.  

Gl on the champ game dudes
 
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