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March Madness Thread: Huge 2nd Half Bettor Plays.

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Posted: #301
Thanks guys for the well wishes. My strategy has been and still is very simple. 2nd Half plays that exploit oppo team tendencies. The 2nd half is actually broken into two separate 10 minute windows ie. 20 minute 2nd half. The 1st 10 minute window and the 2nd 10 min window. Players fatigue, efficiency in made shots as game progresses, defense, free throws, etc are all taken into account as well as 2nd half history between both teams on 1st 10 min window and 2nd 10 min window. Kind of trying to explain it a little. If you are a traditional full game bettor then this might not sound logical, but if you look at the 2nd half as a full game bet then you can start to see advantages in the bet strategy. It's not just a hit and miss make a bet practice that I do. Well, here is to a super profitable day for all of us no matter what you play for yourself. Weekend is here and cannot wait for the games to continue.
 
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Posted: #302

Thanks for the plays and insight. Sorry for the double post earlier. Slow data connections on a cell phone are horrible.

 
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Posted: #303

Thank you for the explanation because I know everyone is wondering the same thing. Lol Only question I have is if there's a significant injury on the team you're backing, does it become a no play? Thanks in advance

 
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Posted: #304
Well wishes Playa, let’s have a profitable day. Your capping style is outside the box but if it’s working then forget what anyone thinks. BOL. 
 
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Posted: #305

Significant injury in the 1h that is*

 
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Posted: #306
Good luck and thank you for sharing the plays.
 
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Posted: #307
Quote Originally Posted by bellagioplaya:

Thanks guys for the well wishes. My strategy has been and still is very simple. 2nd Half plays that exploit oppo team tendencies. The 2nd half is actually broken into two separate 10 minute windows ie. 20 minute 2nd half. The 1st 10 minute window and the 2nd 10 min window. Players fatigue, efficiency in made shots as game progresses, defense, free throws, etc are all taken into account as well as 2nd half history between both teams on 1st 10 min window and 2nd 10 min window. Kind of trying to explain it a little. If you are a traditional full game bettor then this might not sound logical, but if you look at the 2nd half as a full game bet then you can start to see advantages in the bet strategy. It's not just a hit and miss make a bet practice that I do. Well, here is to a super profitable day for all of us no matter what you play for yourself. Weekend is here and cannot wait for the games to continue.


All these are good points, expect for the fact that you are making picks before actually seeing how the game is being played today.  40 years of gambling and i have never met or seen another gambler, pick second half games before the first half was played. I mean there are so many things that can go wrong in the first half, that wont hold up to the past stats you are looking at.  The star player could get hurt, the whole team could be in foul trouble, etc etc.  The beauty of second half lines is the fact that you get to see how teams are playing.   There is no way this could be a successful way to bet.  This isnt a bash on you, so dont take it that way.  Its just gambler to gambler observation.  good luck today
 
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Posted: #308

Bellagio, I've been betting for many years now and I find it strange that you can bet 2nd halves before the game starts. To me, there are so many things that can happen in the first half i.e. foul trouble on teams best player, low scoring half etc. that would affect your thinking for the second half. I'm not criticizing your selections, just wondering your thought process.


 
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Posted: #309
Quote Originally Posted by Stryc9Nine:

Lol by watching 1st half you can determine the outcome of the 2nd half? Bullsh!t!!!

I only chime in to big threads when I think a poster is a scamming tout but I had to chime into this one. Bellagioplaya likes a play and posts his plays. Personally I don't blindly tail people like the majority itt


of course you cant, but watching the first half, you can gain a lot of info to help your second half selection, like how many players are in foul trouble.  are players having trouble scoring due to the defenses being played etc etc. 
 
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Posted: #310

I think it is a great starting point, and then as the game goes you make the decision to bet it or not.  Thanks "B".  Been following a while, don't like to clog threads. an_cheers

 
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Posted: #311
while I agree with your overall strategy I disagree with the execution per se.   I think your followers are reluctant to bet a teams 2H line " no matter what " when they are say up 20 at the half.  Teams tend to relax a bit especially in that first 10 minute stretch.  I think what might be more re-assuring to them is if you placed a contingency on such games before hand that says " you will lay off that game if said team is up by so much".  or something to that affect.   

Anyway, BOL today on your wagers.  Lets hope Wiscy keeps this FH close so everyone can  away on Sparty in the 2H
 
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Posted: #312
Is everybody insane?  Bellagio created a thread to share plays based upon a handicapping strategy that has been successful for him.  He is not asking for a critique or opinions of this strategy.  If it isn't in line with your own thinking than move to someone's thread who is or create your own thread with plays in line toward your own betting philosophy.  It's just ridiculous and disrespectful to come into someone's thread with this garbage.
 
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Posted: #313

Sad stuff going on in here.  

 
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Posted: #314
The numbers don't lie, significant injury is not an every game event so maybe in a small sample size that might play a role, Dont need to see any details during 1st half period with my numbers. They are strictly numbers married to 2nd half histories and tendencies. Also, I don't want to be an arrogant mofo, but honestly nobody needs to follow any of these plays.
 
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Posted: #315

Yeah... Pretty dumb people take free picks and give their opinions.. 

 

Play or dont. 

 
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Posted: #316
2nd H: Michigan St-6.5 to win $7k So have to win by 11 which is same as full game, close enough. Really thought they were going to be losing at half. All good with Mich St 2nd half though at -6.5 or even -7 for those that might get it late in the betting window  for 2nd half.
 
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Posted: #317

Quote Originally Posted by bellagioplaya:

The numbers don't lie, significant injury is not an every game event so maybe in a small sample size that might play a role, Dont need to see any details during 1st half period with my numbers. They are strictly numbers married to 2nd half histories and tendencies. Also, I don't want to be an arrogant mofo, but honestly nobody needs to follow any of these plays.

 

exactly. Keep doing you, bellagio.

 
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Posted: #318
Mich st-7...let let's go!
 
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Posted: #319
Got Michigan state live at -8.5 for the game.
 
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Posted: #320

Usually all in on your picks but I follow the big 10 a lot and I personally  don't see any way msu wins by 11. GL though to everyone on it.

 
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Posted: #321

I’m on sparty -10 FG, hope we hit this 2H! bol

 

 
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Posted: #322
Quote Originally Posted by Caff3inekil0s:

Yeah... Pretty dumb people take free picks and give their opinions.. 

 

Play or dont. 


What I don't understand is how come these "OBSTRUCTIONISTS POSTERS" simply don't make a thread that shows their own personal skills and winners. They are like the kids I remember on the school playground that were on the sidelines during the football scrum game talking trash, but never got picked to play in a game of were man enough to take a stand and try to be on the team, just always trash talked though. Winning or losing is not important to them, its the drama that excites them otherwise why wouldn't they stop posting comments that detract from the helpfulness of this forum. I am starting to think that it is being done  from a younger generation because nowadays its all about smacktalk on FB, SC, Twitter, etc not helping the fellow human being. If all of social media was put to use to help the fellow man or woman the world would be a better place guaranteed! These new generation peeps have that power in their palms yet refuse to use it in that manner. When I was a kid, no beepers or cell phones existed and you had to go knock on a friend's door to see if he/she wanted to go out and play. Today, these newbie generation peeps stay in the house and play that way with their internet devices. Very frustrated with the thread's BS comments, excuse the rant.
 
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Posted: #323
going against you on this one...we'll see whose right! BOL
 
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Posted: #324
This thread derailed but interesting points. 
 
 
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Posted: #325
Quote Originally Posted by njburch23:

going against you on this one...we'll see whose right! BOL

Michigan State just needs one good run and Wisky goes into panic brick 3 pointer mode. Honestly, thought by now midway thru 2nd that Mich state would be up by 10 at least, oSubmitnly up 3 has me wondering
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