Michigan +2.5 for me

In a way I'm glad Kentucky beat Louisville.  L'Ville ranks 298th in the nation in FT% and it was about time it finally cost them.  Call me old fashioned but I can't stand teams that can't hit their freaking free throws.

Michigan is 10th in the nation in FT%.  Free throws aren't everything, but I like betting on teams I know can hold a lead at the end of a game by simply hitting their FT.  But I'm getting ahead of myself.   

Michigan just had the perfect warmup for Kentucky by playing a virtual carbon copy of them in the Vols.  Statistically speaking the Tennessee Vols and Kentucky Wildcats are very similar teams.  I think Kentucky has a little more talent but also a little less experience than Tennessee.  They both play in the SEC and make their living on the boards with the occasional 3pt shot once they soften up a perimeter D.  In short, Kentucky isn't going to do many things differently than what Michigan just saw.  Anyone who watched the Michigan game knows they beat Tennessee a lot worse than the final score indicated.

On the flip side of that Kentucky is going to have to change gears completely.  Louisville and Michigan play very different styles of ball and I think Kentucky is going to have a challenging adjustment to make.  I also don't think Kentucky is built to come from behind very well.  The like to slow down the pace and run their half-court offense but if Michigan hits their shots and builds a lead early, I think it might speed Kentucky up a little bit and that's when bad things happen for the Wildcats.

I think it's a great match-up and should be a fun game to watch, but if the books want to dangle 2.5 out there for what should be a tight game or an out-right Michigan win, I'll gladly take them. 

put a gun to my head, I take the +2.5 (that I think will be 3 by tip) but my heart of heart thinks UK wins.  Definitely not playing it though, best of luck.

I am a Mich fan and want to pound this but have some doubts heading into this game. You have a great point in the similarities between tenn and ky. 

Pasteur good luck from an old friend

I'm on it as well. 

I'll be on my Huskies +5.5 but I don't have enough stats to back it up as a posted play.  At this point in the tournament the Huskies getting points has been $$ while Michigan State laying points...not so much.  I think Michigan St. will win (despite all of my shouting at the TV to will another outcome!) but I think UConn has enough talent and...I dunno...balls?  to push the Spartans for 39 minutes. 

Hey Brooklyn long time no see!  Thanks buddy

I know they say live by the 3 die by the 3 but I saw enough dribble penetration and beautiful drives to the basket that leads me to believe Michigan is more than a 1 trick pony. 

It's a tough game to lay money on but what the hell...it's tournament time and we're gamblers. 

I'm okay if Kentucky wins...by 1 or 2.

It's going to either be Deandre Daniels or Amida Brimah they put on Payne.  Payne will probably eat Daniels for lunch and if I'm Kevin Ollie I might say fvck it and put the Freshman Brimah on him.  Brimah is young but he's a 7 footer and the kid has some talent.  He has at least 1 block in every tournament game so far but he gets into foul trouble sometimes.  I'm really dying to see who Calhoun...err..Ollie puts in there defensively against Payne.

Pasteur excellent read again. Good luck.....      

Don't forget, alot of ppl were saying Texas might give Mich fits cause' they were the bigger team and Texas was gonna out rebound and outplay Mich cause of their size, didn't happen, Mich wooped dat behind, then ppl were saying Tenn was more physical, a better rebounding team than Texas and were a team ripe for the upset, that didn't happen,....Mich outplayed Tenn pretty much the entire game and shoulda won by at least 5-7 pts, now everyone is jocking KY and that they are the team to finally take out Mich w/ their superior size and athleticism, BUT DON'T FORGET,....KY's Cauley-Stein is doubtful for tomorrows game.   That might be huge for Mich and bad for a young, inexperienced team, missing their leading big guy and shot blocker vs. a Mich team w/ experience, who have proved all year they can hang with the big dogs(size wise and talent wise) all year.  Don't overhype KY cause they beat Wich St. and Lou.   I'm leaning Mich w/ the pts. and am thinking the spread will hopefully be + 3 by tip-off.    BOL fellas.

Exactly.  Michigan has proven themselves enough to me I feel they are almost getting disrespected by being an underdog here.  Louisville beat themselves as much as Kentucky did.  As long as Michigan doesn't have another almost melt-down I think they should win this.  I don't think the line makes it to 3 though...I'm willing to bet it goes down to 2 which is why I'm snagging that hook while I can.

good luck...I'm on Kentucky..think they are peaking at the right moment.....GL.......

GL, there's plenty of reasons to like Kentucky as well.  I am for SURE not betting heavy on this game because really it could go either way. 

can't really say ketuck is inexperienced...this time of the year freshmen are no longer freshmen plus with all those games ketucy played so far..im pretty sure they all grew up..thats probably why the line is what it is. pretty tough game ....both teams are hot so it might come own to a possession game and fts might help or kill the cover

I like Mich +2.5  and have been on Kentucky all month...agree not a game to bet big...I have been buying 1 to 2 pts on almost every tourney game and it has got me a push or two and 4 or 5 wins that would of been a push or loss...Example  I had Del +15  and they lost by 15 PUSH  my local buddies all had Del +14 or +14.5 and they all lost...Had Fla -8 Sat -150  and i won a large bet , that would of pushed had i bet Fla -10 ...Been RED HOT last 2 wks or so...but small bankroll at Bookmaker has kept me focused and winning small and smart...I can see Ken winning by 1 to 3 pts , so i am buying 2 pts at -150 to get Mich +4.5  Good Luck All...phillyfranko...

Mich. i've noticed goes several minutes without field goals. It almost cost them against Tenn.

Not so sure about that "Calhoun comment" give Kevin Ollie his respect he's got a great basketball IQ and can flat out coach.. I bet those kids love to play their asses off for him

........  That and them jerk-offs committng 4 stupid turnovers in the last 1:47 of the game.  They shoulda dominated from wire to wire imo.    luckily I got em' at -1.5,...my old man (-2.5) not so lucky...lol.  I think the game could go either way, but if I can get it ( through bookie) at +2.5 or more, I'm going Mich.    I think everyone saw them beat Whic St. (it had to end sometime) and a smaller Lou team, that they are gonna stomp Mich on a neutral site in Indy, which ain' t really home field for either team.   Both teams playoff stats for the past 3 game are pretty much the same and really don't favor KY.   Can these freshman handle the pressure of their first elite 8 against a solid team that's been there last year?   BOL which ever way u go,  but I'm leaning Mich +2.5 for now and don't see me changing my mind.   

 I read somewhere that Kevin Durant said when ollie played for OKC, he changed the culture, attitude, and playing style of the Thunder and Durant himself, he's so respected as a leader w/ a high bball IQ.  He's been around the block in the NBA, playing for numerous teams as a jouneyman, and should be a staple for UCONN for years to come,.....the more pts UCONN gets today +5.5...+6, the more I like em' ,  solid team w/ a solid coach,  love Mich. St too, but that's alot of pts to lay.  Ollie beat Izzo last yr. in his first game ever as UCONN's coach.  should be 2 great games today.

Theres a reason kentuckys favored..same spread as when um played mich st.calapari will have them play lock dowb d like msu did..cats win thsnk me later