Posted:
#1
Sides: 61-55, -2.70
Totals: 55-35, +19.60
DNP: 91-77
Louisville/Georgetown
Louisville is coming off a 2OT road victory where it seems the world did not give them a chance to compete. But in the end, the pressure forced Kemba out of his regular game, which probably ended up being the difference. Now they go on the road for a second straight roady, and they play a team with better all-around guard play and a team that will most definitely take care of the pressure. That is, if Pitino decides to bring the same pressure just two days after a double overtime thriller and travel involved. Not only that, but they’ve been involved in three close ballgames, and this spot sets up for an extreme flat spot I think. As for Georgetown, they’re my projected #2 in the Big East, and while that might be out of the question, they have a pretty easy rest of the way outside of the home/away with Syracuse. The value should be there now before the rest of the stretch begins. I think the big reason Georgetown has a pretty big advantage in this game is having veteran guard players who have experience. They have struggled at times this year when they were forced to go in the half court setting and run some offense, but that isn’t the case against Louisville. Louisville will pressure, force you into a transition game, and from that, Georgetown should benefit tremendously. Breaking it down further, all five of Georgetown’s losses this year come against teams who like to slow the game down and make it a half-court style of game. It just so happens that in those losses, they scored 65, 55, 58, 59, and 57. If Pitino is smart, he slows the game down, but he knows he can’t do that with the current makeup of his roster. Realistically, you have a Louisville team that is coming off a win over the #5 team in the nation, and they came from behind to do it. How much do they have left in the tank for a second roady? From an even better standpoint, they’ve played a few close games in a row now, and all that does is set up for a flat spot against a team that has better than average guards to either one, beat pressure, or two, out-shoot your zone. Louisville has a knack for sticking around in games they shouldn’t be involved in, but I don’t think this is an instance where it happens. Additionally, coming into the Big East Season, Pitino broke the schedule down into three game segments and they just wanted to win two out of three in each segment. Segment #1: won the first two before losing the third at Nova. Segment #2: won the first two before losing the third at Providence. Now we enter Segment #3, where they’ve won the first two and go to Georgetown for the 3rd. Does the letdown contribute here?
Texas/Texas A&M
Texas A&M’s lone home loss the past two years was Kansas last year and they have revenge with Texas from a few weeks ago where they lost 81-60. Texas shot 58% that meeting, which is a drastic change from the previous two meetings where they posted percentages in the mid 30’s. All in all, the first meeting was a case of one team making an early run, and then it was over. When a team makes a run like that, you pretty much have to get out of any game plan you have constructed and do whatever is necessary to get back in the game, and that’s exactly what happened from the A&M standpoint. There were also a few factors in that game that tend to be above and beyond reality. First, Texas was 19/22 from the free throw stripe, which was above average, mostly due in part to Tristan Thompson and his 49% free throw percentage only taking 3 attempts. Also, Texas was in the bonus at the 13:49 mark of the 1H. Second, A&M was coming off a OT victory in an up and down game with Missouri, and they just weren’t ready to start the game, which Texas benefitted from with the early run. Looking at Texas, their defense has been fantastic, but it’s a bit misleading I believe. Their defense has benefitted from fast starts to ballgames and Barnes has always done this. Start fast, get out and go, build a lead, and then clamp down defensively and slow the game down. They’ve been able to do it just about every game this year outside of Kansas when they fell behind and made a late surge in the 2H to win easy. It’s exactly how this Texas team is built and the exact reason Balbay is at the PG spot, to slow things down. It seems fairly simple in the grand scheme of things, but it’s tough for teams to do. It’s the exact reason Texas has been so successful this year. They depend on one run, then they clamp down and get to their physical style of play. As for Texas tonight, it all depends on that early run, and if they don’t get it early, I think they’ll struggle. Sort of weird that in a 40 minute game of basketball, a team relies on one early run, but I think that’s what this Texas team needs to do to succeed in the long run. They take you out of your game early, then flip flop into a totally different style. I haven’t seen them compete in a different style too much lately outside of the fluke where they put up 51 and shot an extremely above average percentage in the 2H, so aside from that, I think it’s pretty safe to say that this game is either won or lost by Texas early. After all, they’re the team that’s coming off Missouri’s style of play this time around rather than A&M. But they built a lead early in that game and played their game the rest of the way. If that game is up and down, then I probably take a stab at A&M here, and I still see value in A&M at home and with revenge, just not enough to invest. Texas is in the drivers seat the rest of the way in the conference, no tough spots really remain outside of the visit to Lincoln in February...
0
Hot Forum Topics
