Monday Hoops

First games tonight take place at the listed home team’s gymnasium. One thing to keep in mind, just like the Southern Conference, the MAC East is a much, much, much better half than the West. The East had the top 6 strength of schedules, largely due in part to having to play each team from the East twice. A few things that back up the East being a stronger conference. Well, the top 4 seeds all rely on that half. Eastern Michigan won the West with a 9-7 record, seven of those wins came against their own half. Safe to say East > West in this case. Which leads me to tonight. Toledo hosts an opening round game for the first time in 7 years. These two played back in January, and ended up with a Toledo road win, their first roady victory since 2008. Toledo was coming off snail EMU and going into snail Miami OH, so the spot helped them out a bit in terms of style, and coincidentally, that’s the same spot tonight. Just played snail EMU and again draw snail Miami OH. The first stretch, these were the two lowest possession ballgames, and I expect the same tonight with a trip to the conference tournament on the line. In terms of scheme, Toledo’s going to play a zone, a scary proposition going against a Miami OH team that shoots a ton of three’s, and by a ton, I mean they rank 20th in the country in attempts. On the flip side, Miami OH’s defense and slow pace has generally been what’s kept the team alive in past years. Of course, they need to bury the three point shots they throw up, but the defense is the key here. They use a bit of pressure at times in the man-to-man, but more often than not, they focus on good help defense in the half court. These types have caused Toledo problems in the past. I don’t think this particular game is one that I want to mess with. Toledo’s use to the style, they have the benefit of going against something similar last time out, and Miami OH’s going to have to hit some outside shots if they want to get out with a win. I think value-wise, Toledo probably holds some value, but if Kowalczyk plays zone, he opens the door that has loss written all over it. 

With the Ball State/Western Michigan match-up, you have two teams that I thought have extremely underachieved on the season as I projected both to compete for the West crown. Both sucked to a high extent. Ball State for some odd reason could never figure out how to score against a zone defense even though they practice against it on a daily basis. When teams zone Ball State, they take everything and anything away that Ball State wants to do which is get it to their main cog (Gwarner shoutout) which is Jones. When he can’t touch the ball, Ball State doesn’t get the inside/out movement they need to score. And that could happen tonight. WMU’s a team that was thought by many to make some noise this year. They’re a very experienced team that brought back a ton, but have dealt with numerous injuries on the year and have had trouble defending teams in the high paced environment that they play. They will play a bit of zone as they can’t guard teams who penetrate, so not sure if they use it tonight. In terms of experience, I would have to side with WMU. In terms of defense, Ball State pressures out of their zone, and looks to force you into tough spots on the court where they can trap. WMU does not trap, and exhibits little pressure out of it. Ball State has really slowed their game down to try and get Jones involved even more than they were earlier in the year, and they’ve made a point to do so. I think oddsmakers got this one right, as well. WMU’s a favorite b/c of the homecourt and b/c of the experience. Both teams have scorers. Both meetings this year went over this listed total (147 and 139). In fact, they hit 139 in only 60 possessions the most recent meeting but WMU shot better than 60% from the three-point line. Tough game. As fast as WMU has been in previous years, they sure haven’t looked the part in conference tournaments. As an average game hits 67 possessions, they’ve slowed drastically when the conference tournament hits. Here is their conference tourney possession count last few years:

60

72 (down by a million early, had to push pace)

55

59

62

67

61

58

I point this out, because I’m 99% sure Ball State has to slow the pace to get Jones involved if they think they have any chance of winning this game. They aren’t going into the postseason without getting Jones involved, so this game is going to fall in the 58-62 possession range. It’s a scary proposition to take an over in this setting, but the possession totals say under. I think rather than focusing on the 3-ball, both teams are going to look to go to their strengths, which rely on the inside. When you do that against a zone, it takes time to do. Barring a good shooting night from both teams (again, Ball State struggles against zone so WMU should show it), then I think this one’s a snail and should stay under. These two teams are far too familiar with each other, and have developed a nice rivalry on that half of the conference. And if I do get the inside involvement from both teams, then each teams defends the interior better than the perimeter. Should be a low scoring game that probably comes down to the wire and quite possibly another game that WMU fails to close as they are horrendous in these situations this year.

With the NIU/EMU game, the listed total of 109 is certainly an eye opener. But it’s probably still a bit high. NIU can’t shoot worth a lick against the EMU zone as they scored 45 and 40 points against it this year in two meetings. Along with that, they don’t look to penetrate. They’ve lost their main scorers, and primarily ball handlers and shot takers, and if you can’t attack against the EMU zone, you just aren’t going to score. They only got 22 foul shot attempts the first two meetings, and one of those games they only went to the line 7 times. I’m in no way going to back a horrendous EMU offense to cover a spread against a team that’s seen their zone a few times already this year, but probably value there. I lean under here, just not worth the risk of going at a total less than 110 in a conference tourney setting, but I do think she’s a bit high.

More zone defenses present themselves when CMU and Bowling Green meet tonight and as indication from the line, we have the East is much better than the West myth in place as Bowling Green is a favorite of more than 10 for only the second time this season. They were only a -8.5 here since the last time they played. Best player on the court lies on the CMU side of things with Zeigler. They’ve had some injuries as well this year, which led them to a pretty pathetic year. It’s too bad he can’t take all of the shots, but this might be a game where he wants to do it. The kid’s 16/27 from the field in two career games against the Falcons as BG’s interior defense is ultra pathetic. This should be another game that’s ultra-slow, force Zeigler into touches against a weak inside, and while BG has sped up the play a bit this year, Orr’s a traditional snail. Here’s his possession totals once he hits the postseason: 61, 62, 59, 55, 66, 60. Should be another slow game, and if this game does come to the end of game free throws, both suck at shooting them. Both teams focus on getting the ball inside. CMU somehow had 23 offensive boards the first game, clearly a lopsided stat that isn’t going to happen again along with the 63 shots they put up and only scored 58 points. Neither team attacks against the zone, and if they do attack and get fouled, again they don’t shoot it all that well either. Tough for me to avoid the under here, and will go with Central Michigan, primarily based on Zeigler’s ability to score in the paint. Central Michigan does a few things well. They take care of the ball, and they force turnovers. Probably more of a play against BG here. If they can’t attack against what should be a better defensive effort from Central Michigan in the postseason, then they’re going to have to shoot it extremely well from the outside to cover this #, and they don’t shoot it enough from the outside for this to be a factor I don’t think. Bowling Green’s coming off a tough stretch in terms of styles (last half of February was brutal), and also come in off a revenge situation loss against their rival. As long as this game is slow, which I think it will be, Central Michigan’s going to have a chance to win this puppy. If she’s not, well, then this is a loss.

Two games I’m not interested in. Western Illinois’ pace causes major teams headaches, but they have a weak inside presence and little size to match-up with Oral Roberts. Just not interested in laying the chalk in a game that’s as slow as what that one has the possibility to be played at. WIU’s only offensive option in the game is Ceola Clark and NDSU showed the blueprint of defending him exceptionally well despite the loss last night. Combine that with the fact that he’s not taller than his opponent, and he should struggle again. Molinari’s shown the ability to do something totally different in regards to how he defends as opposed to the regular season matchups, I’m just not sure he has the horses in this one. In the other game, you have a Southern Utah team who completed a miracle comeback into a fast pace tonight against South Dakota State, something I don’t want to be a part of. As awkward as it was that they ended up running with Oakland last night, it’s only going to get worse if they choose to run with SD State tonight. This Southern Utah has some experience, but they also had double revenge going into last night, and revenge from last year’s Summit Tourney where Oakland took them out. That was the first time they had beaten Oakland in years, doubt I get a letdown with momentum of the conference tourney, but they did exhibit a ton of energy to do the unthinkable.

No interest in Arkansas State/UNT. One important note in regards to the Denver/WKU game. These WKU freshmen are pretty damn good. And they attack relentlessly. They took 41 foul shots last night as it’s a big part of their offense. I bring this up because traditionally, Joe Scott coached Denver teams foul a ton. They haven’t done much this year (don’t have to defend when you build big leads in altitude), but it’s the scheme. They have ranked at or near the bottom in all the country in terms of putting people to the foul line, so on the road, on a back-to-back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them send WKU to the line a ton tonight. Combine that with Denver shooting the 3ball a ton, and WKU allowing teams to shoot it a ton (they don’t pressure, and they rank 9th in the country in allowing teams to shoot it from the perimeter), and I think this one has the possibility of going over. These two did hit a 143 earlier in the season in only 60 possessions. A little concerned with Denver shooting on the back-to-back and their ability to slow the game down along with WKU playing on a back-to-back-to-back, but if they’re fouling on the defensive side of things like I think, this possession count is increased. I can get past teams playing in their 3rd game in 3 days if they attack, and I can get past jump shooting teams in the 2nd game in 2 days if the shots they’re taking will be open ones. Simple game of what each team wants to do, the other doesn’t like stopping it and with lack of prep time, I don’t see it changing.

This should be a fantastic game of entertainment value for those who value defense, so this is certainly a game that I will be tuning into. Probably no value on either side. Both defend exceptionally well, probably give Fairfield an edge on the offensive side of things in terms of consistency within the offense, as Loyola MD has the ability to throw up some dumb shots. I sincerely doubt that Loyola MD would letdown in this spot, but it was pretty clear that they wanted Iona again in the revenge game. I think with a healthy Needham here, I probably at worst lean Fairfield, but not interested without him. He didn’t really make a difference in the Iona game as Iona doesn’t exhibit the best of defenses, but having a shooter and main distributor against a stout Loyola MD defense would have certainly helped.

Fast. Ton of three’s. Little defense. WCU playing 4th game in 4 days coming off a 72 possession game with NC Greensboro, the fastest team in the conference. Davidson playing 3rd game in 3 days coming off a 66 possession game with Elon, the second fastest team in the conference. Point over, no interest given the above. WCU plays fast, it’s the only way they know how. Davidson won’t mind it, and they’ll let WCU launch from the perimeter. WCU’s been on a tear from the three-point line in this tournament, and very well could continue. Last ten finals in this meeting: 155, 154, 149, 144, 154, 149, 159, 151, 138, and 147.

Holt’s a gametime decision. If he plays, I like St. Mary’s to win. They played in this arena earlier in the year for a few games, so the familiarity is there. They also pose some problems out top with their size at the guard position if he does play (still an advantage if he doesn’t). Gonzaga’s got the big advantage on the inside, but if you can’t get the ball to them, advantage doesn’t exist. Probably a game I don’t touch, and just let her go not willing to wait for the gametime decisions, but will lean to St. Mary’s at the current number with immediate revenge. Both teams come off fast pace into here, should be a good game regardless.

GL

Sure.

linky-doo

Post #3 under "Summit Tourney". SUU is in a tough spot.

GL

Same.

But that doesn't mean the result will be the same.

Taking a stab at what I feel holds value. Nothing more, nothing less.

Had the nucleus the first meeting w/ Ziegler in foul trouble. This CMU team has had five guys suspended at some point, and another three with injuries on the year. Lost two players before the season even started.

Good call.

He's still a game-time tonight per CBS Sports.