MONMOUTH @ IONA: If I lose this Son of a B!tch play and I'm outta here for a long time

2017 Record:3-9 (Like slicing my wrist typing that).

The pick:

IONA +2 over MONMOUTH

You don't know these teams. I do because I live right next to them. They are part of my local news feeds all day, every day. The players themselves live around me.

Anyhow, that's how I know who the hell they are.

I watch the MAAC all year to make this one play and if it loses, well I'll seeya when I seeya.

Anyhow here's the reasons for the play:

1. Line reading.

This ones for you. I don't need to line read this game but the average better who isn't familiar with two teams reads lines and backs into a side.

Monmouth is on a FIFTEEN game winning streak. They have tore this conference limb from limb. They win at home. They win on the road. And they crush teams in conference. Monmouth is the Gonzaga of the MAAC.

But Iona is St. Mary's. And despite being swept this year, St. Mary's has and always will have a change against the Zags just based on pure rivalry just like Iona does.

And that is what you have here. A rivalry.

Iona waits its entire year for this one home game. And then they let it all hang out. Or SHOULD. Why? They HATE Monmouth, especially after their mini-brawl made national news last year.

Monmouth would love to drill Iona here too, make no mistake.

But they have nothing to play for but that hate. They've locked up the number 1 seed in the conference tournament and after last year's tournament disappointment, should run through it this year.

For Iona there is more to play for. If St. Peter's loses to Canisius tomorrow at 2PM (this game is at 4PM), and IONA wins, Iona will get the 2 seed. St. Peters is on the road and a 1.5 pt favorite so it projects as being a tight game.

That is very important because that will perfectly arrange for a Monmouth/Iona final with the most advantageous seeds.

And if Iona loses to Monmouth here and gets the 3 seed, how in the world are they going to have any confidence playing at Monmouth in the final (if they even get there in that a loss here might be too debilitating to their psyche)?

Again, Monmouth is playing for hate only.

Again, Iona is playing for possibly a seed. And even if they are not they most certainly don't want to get swept in the regular season by their hated rivals (Monmouth crushed them last game 92-74). And they want some confidence heading into the tournament.

BUT, and this must be acknowledged, this is flawed Iona squad. So flawed are they sometimes the second unit outperforms the first.

This team does not have a stud like last year when they had the all-world AJ English they could turn to at the most crucial moments (They won at home by a hair last year over Monmouth in part due to his heroics). So this must be a team-wide effort.

And Monmouth is on a 15 game winning streak so +2 doesn't matter much ATS. But +2 is NOT -3.5, I'll say that! And that matters! Because yes, this game could come down to the final seconds.

ALL THIS, Monmouth playing for nothing but hate on 15 game win streak and they are laying.....2.

You knew nothing coming in. Tell me that line doesn't scream out: the books will be praying for a Iona win here. And we want to side with the books more often than not.

Because based on the performance metrics Monmouth outclasses Iona in too many categories for this line to be +2. ESPECIALLY when they've been crushing this conference. Monmouth was a -6 pt favorite last time out so we get the home road swing + an extra two. But that was FIFTEEN games ago. Fifteen games Monmouth won. So we should be getting more here: Like 4.5 or 5. But we have to settle for 2. And that is a tough pill to swallow for an alleged 'sharp' side but I will swallow it. That is the pill you have to swallow when you want to fade 15 game win streaks. But that is why capping is hard. It was quite easy for two years for me but now...

I should note Monmouth had a lackadaisical performance against a gusty Siena team on Friday winning only by 4 (and failing to cover). This was a guy in their armor for certain. That was on Senior Night @ Monmouth. This is Iona's Senior night. And that was done purposely against Monmouth to get the crowd out. 

King Rice (the Monmouth HC) definitely wants a win here but a loss is not devastating in the least. In fact, a loss SHOULD sharpen his team for a conference tournament they MUST win.

If they beat IONA they have to win TWENTY in a row to get an NCAA Tournament bid so really, pulling a Popovic (remember he laid off the Thunder a couple years ago while on a 19 game win streak just to get the burden of the streak off his team's back???) here and letting this team cool its jets a bit is not a bad thing. But it would be a good thing for our bankroll.

Iona SHOULD leave it all out on the floor and given their struggles of late (3-3 in their last 3) they should have something to prove here. And they always are trying to prove something against Monmouth. But they will have to play great. They are home. We are not laying points. The line reading screams Iona is the 'sharp' side if you know nothing. And I gave all the above. Looking for ONE m'fn' win and I watched this conference all year to get it. This is a very important game for Iona and me. If Monmouth doesn't come into this game with this streak I very well could be on the other side. But given the streak and the respective level of importance to both team I'm taking the dogs.

It's Monmouth. Throw that stat out the window.

Then you can tell the board what this game means to Iona (a ton). Because although meaningful to Monmouth, it's not remotely as meaningful as the first game!

If you disregard the meaning of this game to Iona then you simply can't bet it.

Because if you do that, you will see a 15 game win streak vs. a flawed Iona team and say "Wow, I'm getting essentially a ML price for the team that has destroyed this conference for the past two months". And you simply can't cap that way. You might have the right outcome because there are only two sides, but disregarding the fact that Iona plays the red-headed step-child to Monmouth in this conference puts you on thin ice with regard to a cap.

 (Monmouth is superior to Iona though. This is obvious. They should blast through the conference tournament because they were not as impressive as last year as a bubble team and didn't make and definitely won't make it this year if they put themselves in the same position).

Quote Originally Posted by monstergrit:

 always look forward to your plays

based on the stats i use (not many) the spread is dead on. Will roll with you on this one like usual. win or lose hope to see you back soon.

Home to road based on the original -6, the spread is almost dead on (with an added bonus).

But BOTH Monmouth and Iona were struggling then and the line switch from home to road for Monmouth here should result in more than -2 IF you do not inject the rivalry in this game (which the books do not for the most part and that is where you find angles).

But if your metrics say it's -2 then that makes me feel better at least!

Sure why not! If Monmouth loses they lose nothing. In fact, beating a team 3 times in one year is quite tough and rarely does the opportunity arise like it could here in an underwhelming conference where the cream (Iona and Monmouth) rise to the top.

Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

all depends IF Iona gets their NYC "streetball" going. they been pretty "iffy" of late

Iona has been playing more focused than streetball. Wouldn't back them otherwise!

Because I've done one better. I've bet teams on SEVENTEEN Game losing streaks and they've won in blowouts. I've always capped this way. Capping and taking the inferior teams, getting better lines (almost always on the + side), fading both winning and losing streaks etc. It's paid me handily.

Even today I took Indiana on a 5 game losing streak. Not huge but significant for a team like that. They won. I just made the mistake of not having the proper number to win as well. These capping angles work (most of the time, but not recently as you can see at the top of the page).

I wouldn't say that about Cuse getting TEN. I will give ten a look for any team. If you said the ML, I would have said that's a tough sell but I can give 10 a look.