MONMOUTH @ IONA: If I lose this Son of a B!tch play and I'm outta here for a long time

0-1 Scal Blind Tails 2017

Indiana was the classic "right side and lose" game. Saturday night public Big 10 matchup. Vegas has built the strip on those...I took the bait. Oh well.

This I like though....it is a local matchup for you....and the line read is dead on. 15 game win streak and only a slight fav.

So, time to ride again.......Iona +2.

But, win or lose, your current run is a classic example of why "capping"(whatever that is) takes a major backseat to money management and viewing gambling from a business standpoint. Scal's analysis is deep....he knows his shitttt.......but much of the time that just does not matter. We are dealing with random systems, and variance is a mofo.

Winning bets is the name of the game.

So, lets win one here. BOL to all.

If you watched it, you'd see a guy hitting a 3 quarter court miracle that would make even Steph Curry envious, and then painfully allow the same team that received that dagger heave nonchalantly take every point back and then go up almost by double digits like nothing ever happened in the first half. Not even the Knicks do that.

As I'm watching the game, I'm begging Indy not to come back because I knew they could not cover a spread like 3.5. But of course, not only do they come back they tie it (my ONE saving grace) and a college kid (usually skittish nails the FT to take down every indy backer from here to timbucktoo.What an awful side to take out of 100 Saturday games.

The UConn women's game was a shot with 30 points. Not interested in fading them anymore unless I can get near 50.

This game is completely different obviously. The parity between the two teams is infinitely closer when compared to Temple to UConn.

Who cares

Quote Originally Posted by WinstonTheWolf:

Scal, your write up is dead on. I actually live 10 minutes away from Monmouth Univ  and everything you said is 100% correct. That being said, this should be a super close game up until the end. I'm with you on it, regardless of what the numbers say below that I've found lol. GL man

*Monmouth is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.  

Iona is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games, and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up win. Iona is also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games versus a team with a winning straight-up record. 

Appreciate it.

Ats numbers perfectly exemplify why I call Iona 'flawed' in the OP. They're not pretty.

Again, if Monmouth can come into this game off a loss, I'm probably taking Monmouth with the same line just to rebound for the tournament. But a 15 game win streak and a line of 2...

I'm really hoping Iona can get a meaningful lead late and King Rice calls off the dogs just to give his players a needed rest from this conference grind.

They almost certainly won't make the tournament without a conference tournament win. They were 27-7 last year and didn't make it.

They would have almost the exact same record this year. So it's tournament or bust imo and I have to think King Rice thinks the same way.

They have to win the tournament. Makes this game less meaningful. It means something to Monmouth because it is Iona. And even at that: Iona would LOVE to force Monmouth's hand to make them win the tournament which an Iona win here would leave no doubt in doing. Tips the scales more in favor of Iona motivation a bit.

It's nice to have 'right side/wrong result' games as a consolation when....you are hitting over 50%. But to have it happen now....................with this record.

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

I'm disappointed that I didn't get a special shout-out in this thread 

Good luck today, scal 

Looking for a WIN of which there will be 20+. I need ONE. All the rest is noise right now.

Hoping this game doesn't turn into Clemson FSU where FSU stays up all game and Clemson makes a run late with +1 being just not enough.

We need energy and leadership and a pedal to the metal push here.

Which is why in that Indy game I'm wondering how they go down 26-14??? Come ON. Last home game. Crean's last game? Senior night? Let's get it done here Iona. This is what you've waited for all year.

Joe- He ain't here! I loved him though. What a stud. But ironically the line last year was -2 Iona and they won by 3 79-76.

So getting points at home with Iona is pretty massive. I couldn't lay points here. It wouldn't be right.

I watch the Maac the entire season to make this one play. All along I had Monmouth  coming into this game but this streak and line has certainly changed my tune with everything locked up. I'm not in love with Iona but I was supremely confident with Indy yesterday so maybe confidence is overrated and some agita is necessary (which I have here).

I have to go IONA here based on that and all the above (and would really love a Canisius win at 2PM to get the 2 seed, which readers can wait for if they'd like but I see that outcome affecting the line to 1.5/1 if Canisius wins).

It should be a very tough game to win, I will say that. And Iona must win outright obviously.

That's where you and I are different when we cap:

Getting their brains beaten by Monmouth is the first REQUIREMENT I look for when looking to back Iona here.

If Iona wins that first game there is no way in hell I back a sweep here.

And yes, I love backing bad teams with the right lines and yes, it can get ugly when you are off and it makes it that much sweeter when you win. But Iona doesn't even qualify as bad (they may be a two seed in conference). So I get this 'bad team' line making in a way with a team that is quite competent to beat Monmouth here.