Posted:
#1
yesterday it was clearly Rutgers who just about every capper in here loved and didnt think twice about... not one G-town backer. to a lesser extent, ohio state who magically didnt cover although being up 17.5pts ATS at half.
when i looked at the board yesterday, the first game i was gonna slam was Rutgers. luckily my book (local) doesnt open til 10 so i bided my time with some good covers reading. all i kept reading was rutgers gettin too many pts, gtown sandwich game, gtown plays down to their competition, etc ... but there it was 20 fucking points right off the bat and the game made total sense to take Rutgers and none to take G-town. every person in here made completely valid points ... but i couldnt find ANY g-town angles ... so i went against every fiber in my being and took g-town even though Rut was my POD initially.
now we all know how that game went, wasnt even close and Rut backers were scratching their heads in disbelief.
so what is the too-good-to-be-true line today????? i understand it is a small card but there has to be one out there. this is college bball, the books constantly put lines out there that sucker us in.
Early candidates:
Pitt +2.5
ranked team catching points on the road. the only glaring element about this game is that its no secret good cappers look for unranked favorites at home. Big east has also been known for the road teams winning outright over the last few years which plays to Pitts advantage. But I think the public will look at this game and feel Pitt is coming off a loss and SH is a middling Big East team so Pitt should at least win this game. But SH is a solid home team and has not layed down all year in conference at home. They can easily win this game, tho that 11-6 record versus the shiny 15-3 Pitt record will reel in the suckers. If this line stays around 2.5, Pitt seems pretty suckery. THE CANDIDATE: SETON HALL -2.5
No. Iowa -6
Any MVC team being ranked will attract the squares. Much less is known about these teams other than that little number next to the team name indicating they are ranked. Looking into records and stats will show No Iowa has only lost 2 games, has taken care of business on the road in conference, is coming off a loss, and is laying a reasonable amount of points to a paltry bottom-dweller MVC opponent who has managed to win 1 game in their last 5 and is rattled with injuries. But lets take a different angle here ... both teams play alot of D, both teams slow down the game, maybe 6 pts will be a million pts in this barnburner???? No Iowa has sucker written all over it ... they probably win this game but i bet this will be a battle and 6 pts in a defensive battle is a ton. THE CANDIDATE: INDIANA ST +6
Wisc-GB -1
Just take a look at the records (14-7 Wisc-GB vs 7-11 Young St) and one would have a reflex of taking a more known GB team over a Young st team no one hardly bets. GB is constantly a top 4 Horizon team, Young st we never hear of. With such a small board today, i see NCAA bettors diving into the lesser known conferences and making some "at first glance" picks. this one might be the juiciest. If the books were really scared of GB on the road in this spot, this line would be 3-4pts. THE CANDIDATE: YOUNG ST +1
any other candidates? this must be narrowed down to 1 play!
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