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NCAA SUNDAY Too-good-to-be-true LINE

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by swizzol:

...Where else but Newark could you have a college player with two bullets lodged in his body average 12 pts and 11 rebounds?
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:

Special K,

After reading your write up, why not take the under on the Indy St game?


its probably the right play but under/overs are hard to consistently cap ... easier to read sides IMO
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by kash2009:

fface don't u think there are other people in here who have tried this so called looks too good to be true/ trap strategy...ask them if they were able to quit their jobs or how their bankroll is looking....u get one game right and now u think u have unlocked the key to sportsbetting....what about that time pitt was ranked catching 4.5 points from an unranked cincinatti...who won...yesterday michigan st was catching 2 points from unranked team..who won...moron, ur strategy is useless and too late...idiots like u have done nothing but cost the forum money with ur idiot theories that don't work...a strategy doesn't work when everyone is doing it!  p.s don't call any1 else a square, what the fck do u think u r 


first of all, i am a sqaure  - so are you. anyone who bets games on the side is a square. those few who do it professionally can call themselves sharps but even they run out of steam. no such thing as a sharp. the sharps are the books who can see everything evolve. 

i am also not trying anything new here. there is no way to beat the book or uncover a strategy that hasnt been tried. ppl have been betting this shit since before you sucked on your moms titty and the game of capping evolves all the time. i am simply posting to create coversation to narrow down a good pick for me. i am not twisting anyones arm to make a pick, just discussing. I am not trying to be "the man" on covers or anything so relax yourself, i dont need you to keep me in check. 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by kash2009:

fface don't u think there are other people in here who have tried this so called looks too good to be true/ trap strategy...ask them if they were able to quit their jobs or how their bankroll is looking....u get one game right and now u think u have unlocked the key to sportsbetting....what about that time pitt was ranked catching 4.5 points from an unranked cincinatti...who won...yesterday michigan st was catching 2 points from unranked team..who won...moron, ur strategy is useless and too late...idiots like u have done nothing but cost the forum money with ur idiot theories that don't work...a strategy doesn't work when everyone is doing it!  p.s don't call any1 else a square, what the fck do u think u r 
Probably a good topic to start your own threadBet you'd get a lot of responses. As far as this thread goes, I find it very interesting.  Isn't what this is all about, thinking before you bet?BOL
 
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Posted: #30
Special K I started something similar lately, but youre doing a much better job of the analysis and thought process which is great. Pitt is absolutely a candidate and I like SH here, but this theory isn't 100%.
 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32
Low profile game here, Cleveland St. I'm thinking about laying the wood! Any thoughts?
 
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Posted: #33

northern iowa by 9

pitt wins by 5

 
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Posted: #34
Adding another candidate, taking 1 away ... 

 
Candidate:

Cincy +7.5

Cincy coming off a couple close home wins against so-so Big East teams. Cincy has looked good all year in conference, keeping even their losses tight. They even have a better record than the Cards, who are coming off 3 losses, the last 2 on the road. Ill be the first to say this is not your typical Lou team but this line makes little sense. I see alot of Cincy love on the boards, not much at all out of Lou backers. the line budged from 8 to 7.5 in most books, a box move.... could just be a reaction to the $$. This line was set from the get-go for Lou to catch Cincy sleeping. THE CANDIDATE:  LOUISVILLE   -7.5



No longer a candidate:


I dont like SH hall here. i see alot of SH backers and i think the books are probably happy where the number is. SH is probably the better side of this bet, but this line is hardly TGTBT. I dont think bettors or the books alike would be surprised to see Pitt come out and win or SH to handle business at home. 



 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by thebird40:

Low profile game here, Cleveland St. I'm thinking about laying the wood! Any thoughts?

thats a tough game. i do think that line is set just about right. cle st holds it down at home but they are coming off an impressive home win vs GB. they play alot of D in cle st, the thing that worries me is a close game and not covering that number. Milwaukee is nothing special, i am wondering why that number is only 4.5. if you like cle st, go with your gut. i dont see anything glaring .. this is a low profile game, the line is just about right and the public seems to be about even.
 
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Posted: #36
The Wood, I am probably laying off Cleve St unless the line gets closer.  I may like 'em ML at home but not giving many points.

Special K, your last post confused me...which side of Cincy v L'ville are you taking?
 
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Posted: #37
Thanks, here is another one, tell me what you think? Tulane, didn't E Carolina play yesterday?
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Rogue:

The Wood, I am probably laying off Cleve St unless the line gets closer.  I may like 'em ML at home but not giving many points.

Special K, your last post confused me...which side of Cincy v L'ville are you taking?

nothing yet .. Cincy seems too-good-to-be-true ... def a strong candidate for my play today. I am going to play one game, trying to go as much against the grain as i can 

so far i am leaning towards:

Lou  -7.5
Indiana St  +6 (currently 6.5)
Youngstown St +1 (currently 1.5)


I have to say that the Lou game being the highest profile of the bunch and the line making the least sense, i am leaning hard towards them. 
 
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Posted: #39
um,,,,this isn't special k ?
 
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Posted: #40
Different K...good thread.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by thebird40:

Thanks, here is another one, tell me what you think? Tulane, didn't E Carolina play yesterday?

i was looking at this too. def one of the lesser games on the board. I certainly like tulane in this spot bc they are giving way too many pts to another shitty team in their conference. ecar played last night at southern miss (5pm game time) and will be playing again on the road w/in 24 hours. The problem is i think that is factored into this line already making it 8.5, which i dont think Tulane should be favored over anyone except a JV girls high school team. Also, not that anyone was caring about Tulane basketball as it is, but this game will run right into pregaming for the heart of the town - the saints. 

way too shitty of a game for me. gun to my head, Ecar covers this bc i bet the public is all over the "less than 24 hours" factor. how far of a ride is it from So Miss to Tulane anyway? 
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by cacabware:

um,,,,this isn't special k ?

different K ... his is Special__K, i have been on here a bit longer, posted much, much less
 
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Posted: #43
I was all over NI,now U made me think about it....i love good teams 2 bounce back after a  loss....Texas ..Duke ....nice thoughts....
 
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Posted: #44
consider me suckered today on Pitt but I totally agree with your Penguins thoughts though but I can't pull the trigger on them
 
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Posted: #45
 seeing some Indian St at +5.5 now ... steam towards ISU
 
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Posted: #46
I am gonna stay off these lesser conference games. I am seeing some steam for Young St (alot of PKs out there) and Indiana St (5.5) that tells me i am not alone with thinking those seemed a little too easy. 

I am going with LOUISVILLE -7.5. That line just seems a few points too high. Its an early game, i say they catch cincy sleeping. 


too-good-to-be-true play is ... 

LOUISVILLE   -7.5
 
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Posted: #47
Great post, K. I agree with you, these lines are a little scary. Youngstown is so shitty, I have to take a risk with Green Bay. Have a good one
 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by Bluedevils14cj:

you have to look at it from this standpoint.  At least 60 percent of the time the better team wins on the road in this case is Pitt.  They have also some nice wins on the road this season in the big east which includes at UConn and Syracuse.  The cappers tried to make you think its a sucker bet taking Pitt, but in reality I think its a gift that their giving you points.  I hit on all ranked teams on the road yesterday with Mich St, Duke, and Villanova.  I would pound Pitt heavy considering Seton Hall is terrible at foul shooting as a team and turns the ball over to many times.  The only way they stay in the game is if Hazell shoots lights out.

Well said.  Pitt plays nasty D and will play half court/transition off turnovers.  I got +2.5 and will take it gladly!

Let's make some  & our success!!!

person

 
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Posted: #49
one thing to always remember, even if a line looks too good to be true, it can still hit. the public doesnt always lose, the sharps dont always win, the books dont win every bet. so if you feel good about a bet u gotta go with it. but if it makes you feel like a sucker then you gotta think twice. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Great post, K. I agree with you, these lines are a little scary. Youngstown is so shitty, I have to take a risk with Green Bay. Have a good one

good luck amd ... i couldnt pull the trigger on a shitty team. you only should take shitty teams catching points, not at even or favorite. GB is def the better team, lets see if they play that way today. 
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