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Ncaab ATS Streak Breakers for 2013/2014

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Prospect
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Posted: #501
So Boise needs this tonight?.. 
 
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Posted: #502
ST Mary's was 9-0 didn't see that anywhere on list of streaks..
 
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Posted: #503
Morn Guys

Letsbreakem

Santa Clara is 0-4 and odds makers record to cover is 19-17 
almost a 50-50 (that's good) shows control per odds makers ability to apply proper point spreads
S Fla is just 0-2 
I would chance S Clara to cover as i think they get a favorable point spread from Odds makers They seem to have control of S Fla at 0-2

I never worry about what the point spread will be as its all about the Odds makers Record of applying the correct points in past games
Forget about players,teams,home, away and all the other tangibles as Odds makers already have that factored into a play
It shows their ability of balancing out games and at various Streak levels and certain Teams as teams rise to higher levels both win and loss.

Most gamblers will follow certain teams as they win along with fan base and the higher the win record usually their wagers rise as why not ????? EASY MONEY to win,and as the streak gets HIGHER the easier the WAGERS comes in on them

Example  Oregon,Umass both 8-0 and what happens and next is Villanova but they are just at 7-0 and if i lose fading them on 28th i will double my wager the next time they play as they can't continue as past records says they can't and last years record of 13-3 backs it up Page 435

Just the opposite with large loss streaks, as they then fade those teams with high wagers as surely losing teams will continue to lose and usually that is correct
Just look at East ILL record 0-7
Loss Streaks can Not continue although Odds makers do have a harder time stopping loosing streaks as i think its a "as they say a work in progress" for Odds makers with some teams
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Better post this b4 i max it out
 
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Posted: #504
Rippon

Boise is 0-5 and desperately needs a cover and Odds makers for some reason this year are having problems applying correct point spreads with win and loss streaks at level 5

0-5 record to cover is 3-9
5-0 Record to NOT cover is 3-10
This level has been playing hell with odds makers this year and i can tell you Vegas is Pizzed with odds makers about it as they want BALANCE
Until i see a change in record i'll be following the record for both to continue in same direction,both to go Higher
Boise to go to 0-6 with rec at (3-9) to stop
 
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Posted: #505
 Rippon  

St Marys was on a  3-0 streak but did not cover on 12/22 against S Carolina per official Covers records

 
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Posted: #506
Here we go again with another 5-0 streak record
ILL Chicago at 5-0 and record to stop is 3-10 so i'm playing them to go to 6-0 until Odds makers make corrections
also Colorado St is 0-4 and loss streak record is 19-17 showing they have control of level 0-4 but not level 5-0
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The correct play if they fix game properly would be Col ST covers and ILL Chi doesn't but until i see it changing i'll follow 5-0 to continue to 6-0 per record at 3-10
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Posted: #507
6-0 Unlv plays t nite and 6-0 win streaks are 3-4 showing much better Odds makers control of games at this level

Miss St appears as no problem at 1-0 so this game should be a Pass,but with the 50% i'll chance Unlv to cover t nite since they are my Home team (HOMEY PLAY)
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we have 1 other team at 0-4  t nite
0-4 Mason with record as noted 19-17 so will chance they cover this evening
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balance of plays are all at level 3
3-0 Akron
3-0 Hawaii
3-0 Utep
0-3 Siu Edwards
As prev noted we just monitor plays at this level unless you have a better idea and best of luck with them

I think that covers all games this evening and BOL in your selections

 Finally done
 
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Posted: #508
Rippn
went back and double checked St Marys and they only had two 3-0 win streaks as other games were non wager games and never offered to wager on so they do not count and on top of all that they did not cover their last start any way on 12/22 so all mute as they say
 chk covers records for accuracy
 
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Posted: #509
wish covers would post ncaab stat sheets 2 days in advance of games as it would give us more time to review match ups on Big play days when all play Saturdays are just hell to do when everybody plays
 
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Posted: #510
need to correct this as did not post Boise's loss at 0-4 to 0-5 so 0-4 record is 19-18 even a more balanced record for 0-4

but we still have problems at levels 5

 
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Posted: #511
Appears i over looked Santa Clara last night as they did not cover and Covers records show they are now at 0-6 as that push in between 2-3 does not stop Streaks either W or L 
0-6 streaks record to cover are 4-3
May need to take a pass on that play

Hope Letsbreakem sees this Correction
 sorry bro
 
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Posted: #512
lets sum up Streak Plays t nite with highest first

6-0 Unlv  ( 6-0 record to NOT cover (3-4) Pass

5-0 ILL Chi ( 5-0 record to NOT Cover (3-10) ILL Chi to 6-0

4-0 None (20-15) to NOT cover) 0 Avail

3-0 Akron,Hawaii,Utep ( 3-0 record to Not cover ) 59-39
Best job at 3-0 ( 62 %) usually just monitor but at 60% may go opposite them
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0-6 Santa Clara (0-6 record to cover is (3-4) Pass,see note above Pg 511

0-5 Boise ( 0-5 record to cover(3-9) does not look good to cover

0-4 Col St ( 0-4 record is 19-18 as noted +1) but 5-0 ILL Chi record to continue is 10-3 how can you ignore that

0-4 Mason ( another 19-18 record) Pass could go either way and no help from opposition at 0-1

0-3 Siu Ewardsville (we just monitor this level)

As i continue to say its all about the SPREAD  and the Odds makers records tell me where to place my $$$$ so i will follow their leads both with corrections and errors
 
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Posted: #513
Have you done any analysis on +/- pts off of covering at each level?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #514
Looking to play ILL Chicago today for a little action..
Appreciate all your hard work man!  Bol to us!  
 
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Posted: #515
Hey stevo1,
sorry, but do you think you could list out your plays...sorry to be a pain, but I just want to make sure I have it right.  I'm a little slow at times and find the above a little confusing to follow 

tx man
 
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Posted: #516
I'm a little confused as well! I read your post over and over and still not quite sure who the right pick is! I respect the work you do and appreciate all the help! Thank you
 
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Posted: #517
Mason/Oreg St 40-40 in 2nd half 
(0-4 Mason ( another 19-18 record)
glad i passed

FYI 

I don't know how, but after all i have posted we have another 

Hofstra at 4-0 win streak ( Pushes do not stop Streaks) does play Siena and as noted 4-0 streak record to stop at 19-15
  
Siena could cover this match up today if odds makers continue to try and stop 4-0 streaks with favorable point spreads to opposition
we will see
 
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Posted: #518
plays for today

731 Top Play today
725 Top Play today
740
_____
strong leans Level 3 plays( against all 3-0 streak teams) 61-39 = 61 % to cover
729
733
747
 
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Posted: #519
Degen i'm not sure what u r asking but i have analized what teams have done after large win streaks and most can't cover their next 3 starts regardless of point spreads 

This was in  2012/2013 season of all 7-0 win streaks and above
so what i am saying is i am looking for Oregon,Umass,Penn St to continue to not cover their next few games if last year can be 
confirmed as a past record of large win streak teams

 
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Posted: #520
don't want to confuse 

strong leans Level 3 plays( against all 3-0 streak teams) 61-39 = 61 %  win ratio says all 3-0's will not cover
729
733
747
 
Prospect
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Posted: #521
Quote Originally Posted by stevo1:

plays for today

731 Top Play today
725 Top Play today
740
_____
strong leans Level 3 plays( against all 3-0 streak teams) 61-39 = 61 % to cover
729
733
747

ok stevo1...now i'm really confused sorry bro !
what do the #'s represent?  pretty new to college bball...tx pal.
 
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Posted: #522
wanted to update all streak records as of 12/23
First all losing streaks records 
0-8 No Team has reached this level as of 12/23

0-7 loss streaks record to cover(3-0) Odds makers have helped all teams
with favorable point spreads and Vegas thanks them and so do we 
0-7 East Ill Is next 12/28 

0-6 loss streaks to cover ( 3-4 )
0-6 we have two N Dakota 12/29 and Pitt 12/31

0-5 Streak Plays to cover (3-10) Odds makers are not helping enough
we have five at this level
Boise today 12/23, i do not see them covering odds are 10-3 they don't
 final 4 Bradly,Prov,Alab 12/28 Ball St 12/30

0-4 Streak plays to cover 19-18
0-4 Colorado St 12/23 today,Furman 12/28 and Appalach St 1/2

0-3 Streak plays to cover (44-40) 
 
Captain
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Posted: #523
Corp they are the wager #'s
 
Prospect
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Posted: #524
Quote Originally Posted by stevo1:

Corp they are the wager #'s
lol...But how can I tell which team and at what spread?   me thinks I really missed something!  
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #525
Quote Originally Posted by corporation:

lol...But how can I tell which team and at what spread?   me thinks I really missed something!  

never mind stevo1!!!!  now i get it, lol...I did say I was slow right???
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