NCAAB Friday Info

UCLA is 7-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament under Mick Cronin.

15 St. Peter's vs 3 Purdue (-12.5)

• 15 seeds are 2-0 ATS and 0-2 SU in the Sweet 16.
• Purdue is 9-4 ATS in nonconference games, including 8-1 ATS when not favored by at least 25 points.
• Saint Peter's is 21-5-1 ATS when not favored by more than 7 points, including 10-3 ATS as an underdog (9-1 ATS, 7-3 SU last 10 games as underdog). Overall, Saint Peter's is 22-9 ATS this season.

4 Providence vs 1 Kansas (-7.5)

• Bill Self is 6-14 ATS against Big East teams at Kansas, including 1-4 ATS in the NCAA tournament (0-4 ATS last 10 seasons).
• Providence is 8-1 ATS and 7-2 outright as an underdog this season. Both losses came against Villanova.
• Each of the past 15 top-4 seeds to be at least 7-point underdogs in the Sweet 16 lost the game outright (6-9 ATS). The last top-4 seed to win as a 7-point underdog in the Sweet 16 was 1997 Arizona (+10.5 vs 1 Kansas).

8 North Carolina vs 4 UCLA (-2)

• North Carolina is an underdog for the second straight game after being favored in 19 straight NCAA tournament games. Prior to winning outright as an underdog against Baylor in the round of 32, UNC had failed to cover six straight NCAA tournament games as an underdog. UNC last won multiple games as an underdog in the NCAA tournament in 2000 (3-1).
• North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
• North Carolina has won outright each of the past three times it has been an underdog.
• UCLA is 7-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament under Mick Cronin (all past two seasons).
• Since 1985, 8-9 seeds that reach the Sweet 16 are 13-8 ATS in that round, including 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
• North Carolina games are 21-12-2 to the over this season.

11 Iowa State vs 10 Miami (-2.5)

• Iowa State is 15-0 outright and 11-4 ATS in nonconference games this season. Iowa State has been an underdog six times in nonconference games and won every time.
• Overall, Iowa State is 12-6 ATS as an underdog (6-0 against nonconference foes)
• Miami is 8-13 ATS as a favorite this season, including 1-7 ATS in nonconference games (5-8 ATS overall in nonconference games).
• In non-First Four matchups between double-digit seeds, favorites are 19-8 ATS. However, in Sweet 16 matchups between double-digit seeds, favorites are 0-4 ATS and 1-3 outright.

The favorite is 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams, while the Bruins are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 neutral site games. UCLA is also 7-1 against the number in their last eight NCAA Tournament games and are 9-4 at the window in their last 13 neutral site games. ON the other side, the Tar Heels are just 7-18-1 against the spread in their last 26 neutral site games as an underdog and have dropped six of their last seven NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. UCLA -2 /A.Rome

With both teams playing at top form at the right time of the year, this could be the most entertaining matchup on Friday’s four-game schedule in the Sweet 16. While you cannot go wrong with a small play on the OVER at 141.5 points, my best bet is still North Carolina and the 2.5 points. ucla 74-73 /N.Car +2/ OV 131.5 / By D.Schwab

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• UCLA has won eight straight NCAA Tournament games when facing a lower seed.
• UCLA has gone into overtime in two of its last three NCAA Tournament games when facing a Top 8 seed at night.
• UNC has seen 147 or more total points in seven of its last eight NCAA Tournament games.
• UNC has lost 1H in seven of its last eight games when facing an AP-ranked school at night.
• UCLA has allowed 70 points or less in nine straight games when facing a non-AP-ranked school.

UNC 73, UCLA 70

SPRINKLE on UNC (+115).

I prefer taking the points in this situation, but there’s value on UNC outright. For starters, look at what it has done this tournament, ripping a top-ten seed and then manhandling a top seed for 25 minutes and then overtime.

UNC has a perfect mix of size, speed and shooting. Manek has led the way, but it’s been the pick-and-roll action with C Armando Bacot and G Caleb Love that’s freed him up.

Compare that to UCLA’s isolation-heavy attack, and I like the Tar Heels to come out on top, especially if the Bruins leading scorer is playing at less than 100%. By N.Beighle

BET NORTH CAROLINA +2.5 (-120).

Like UCLA, Baylor ranked in the top 15 per Kenpom in both offensive and defensive efficiency. What they also have in common is being outside the top 150 in tempo.

That’s where UNC will find its edge and has so far this postseason. It sits 32nd in adjusted tempo and ranks top 45 in efficiency on both ends of the court.

Arizona plays a similar run-and-gun style to UNC and beat UCLA twice this season, winning the only neutral-court game. The Bruins’ first two games have been against teams that play similar to their own style.

UNC doesn’t play that style and that could cause trouble for UCLA in this one.

LEAN to the OVER 141.5 (-110). By N.Beighle

North Carolina (26-9) ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #32
— Experience: #220
— Continuity: #94
— North Carolina won 14 of its last 17 games.
— Tar Heels shoot 36.5% on arc (#41)
— North Carolina is #2 team in country on defensive boards.
— Tar Heels are 4-5 this season vs top 25 teams.
— North Carolina’s schedule, to this point: #37
— bench minutes: #339

— UCLA (27-7) ranked #8 by KenPom
— Tempo: #270
— Experience: #96
— Continuity: #8
— UCLA won 10 of its last 12 games.
— Bruins allowed 53-56 points in first two tourney games.
— UCLA has #72 eFG% defense in country.
— Bruins are 3-3 this season vs top 25 teams.
— UCLA’s schedule, to this point: #39
— bench minutes: #141

— Since 2011, #8-9 seeds are 5-2-1 ATS in Sweet 16 games.
— Two years ago, Carolina beat UCLA 74-64 in Las Vegas.

The Friars are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games overall, are 19-7 against the number in their last 26 games as an underdog and are 4-1 at the window in their last five games coming off a win. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five NCAA Tournament games.Prov +7.5 /A.Rome

Providence is 8-1 ATS as an underdog (plus-8.7 ATS margin), 4-0 ATS when being spotted 5 or more points, 14-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 4-2 ATS versus ranked teams (plus-5.3 ATS margin).

Kansas is 18-17 ATS as a favorite, 11-13 ATS versus winning teams and 4-6 ATS versus ranked teams (minus-3.0 ATS margin).

PROVIDENCE PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game. Kansas 73-70/ Prov +7.5/ Prov ML+265/G.Clark

PASS because there isn’t a big enough margin between my prediction and the projected score. Also, the situational trends for either team don’t provide much of a clue for which side of the total is more profitable in this spot.

Providence is 16-16 O/U and 2-4 O/U versus ranked opponents while Kansas is 19-15-2 O/U and 5-5 O/U against ranked foes.

Providence is capable of pulling off the upset as one of the two best teams in the Big East. I simply have more confidence in the Jayhawks’ current playing form right now. Laying 7.5 points in what should be a close matchup on paper comes with higher risk. However, my confidence in Kansas covering that number is running rather high.Kansas-7.5 /81-69 / By D.Schwab

• Sweet 16 Betting Picks
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• Kansas has won 24 straight games when playing on a Friday.
• Kansas has scored 75 points or more in 10 of its last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
• Kansas has seen 139 or less total points in seven of its last eight games when playing on a neutral court.
• Providence has lost 1H in 11 straight games when facing a non-AP-ranked school on a neutral court.

Providence (27-5) ranked #32 by KenPom
— Tempo: #283
— Experience: #7
— Continuity: #124
— Providence is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games.
— Friars beat Texas Tech of Big X 72-68 at home in December.
— Providence has #34 eFG% defense in country.
— Friars allowed 57-51 points in first two tourney wins.
— Providence’s schedule, to this point: #60
— bench minutes: #302

— Kansas (30-6) ranked #5 by KenPom
— Tempo: #64
— Experience: #130
— Continuity: #47
— Kansas won its last seven games.
— Jayhawks are shooting 54.0% inside arc (#37)
— Kansas has #37 eFG% defense.
— Jayhawks are 2-0 vs Big East (95-75 St John’s/79-72 Creighton)
— Kansas schedule, to this point: #4
— bench minutes: #295

— Even after last night, #1-seeds are 14-6-1 ATS in last 21 Sweet 16 games.
— Kansas is last #1-seed left in this year’s tournament.

The Peacocks are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog, are 20-6-1 against the number in their last 27 games overall and are 37-15-1 at the window in their last 53 games as a dog. On the other side, the Boilermakers are just 2-8-2 against the spread in their last 12 games and are 1-5-12 against the number in their last eight games coming off a win.St Peters +12.5 /A.Rome

LEAN to PURDUE -12.5 (-115).

The Boilermakers have the quintessential combination of the two teams that Saint Peter’s has faced. Murray State had pace and guard play while Kentucky had National POY candidate C Oscar Tshiebwe.

Purdue’s 7-foot-4 C Zach Edey and G Jaden Ivey are like nothing the Peacocks have faced this season, and F 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams has actually played an underrated yet vital role.

Purdue is a Big Ten-best 9-4 ATS in non-conference games, where Saint Peter’s is just 4-4 ATS. Basically, Purdue has been dominant when expected to be.

The combination of size, playmaking, and scoring should send Cinderella home and with the confidence Purdue has, having won both tournament games by double figures, it should be a relatively easy win. Purdue 73-59 /N.Beilghle

Betting sense keeps telling me to lay the points in this game while Saint Peter’s goes off quietly in the night at Wells Fargo Center. But safe plays such as this is not what March Madness is all about. I will not go as far to suggest that Saint Peter’s wins. Yet, I do think the Peacocks have one more battle left in this amazing run to cover. St Peters +12.5/D.Schwab

• Sweet 16 Betting Picks
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• Saint Peter’s has covered the spread in five straight games when playing on a neutral court.
• Purdue has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 12 games.
• Purdue has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last eight games.

Saint Peter’s (21-11) ranked #102 by KenPom
— Tempo: #240
— Experience: #177
— Continuity: #34
— Saint Peter’s won its last nine games.
— Peacocks have #5 eFG% defense in country.
— Saint Peter’s is shooting 46.1% inside arc (#314)
— Peacocks third #15-seed to make it to the Sweet 16.
— Saint Peter’s schedule, to this point: #169
— bench minutes: #17

— Purdue (29-7) ranked #13 by KenPom
— Tempo: #236
— Experience: #210
— Continuity: #13
— Purdue is 5-1 in its last six games.
— Boilers are 26-0 when they score 70+ points, 3-7 when they don’t.
— Purdue has #4 eFG% in country.
— Boilers scored 78-81 points in last week’s wins.
— Purdue’s schedule, to this point: #29
— bench minutes: #64

#15-seeds who have gotten this far:
2013— Florida Gulf Coast (+13) lost 62-50 to Florida
2021— Oral Roberts (+11.5) lost 72-70 to Arkansas

In an unexpected No. 11 vs. No. 10 matchup in the Sweet 16, a double-digit seed is guaranteed to advance to the Elite 8. I am looking for a more defensive battle on Friday night to keep scoring relatively low. Whichever team gets the most breaks over the course of this game should win. However, the total points scored will still be less than the 133-point total line. Mia 64-62 / Best UN133 /By D.Schwab

• Sweet 16 Betting Picks
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• Iowa State has won the 1H in seven of its last eight games when playing on a neutral court on a Friday.
• Miami has scored 68 points or more in 12 straight games.
• Miami has won 16 of its last 18 games when facing a non-AP-ranked school at night.
• Miami has seen 134 or more total points in nine straight games.

Iowa State (22-12) ranked #38 by KenPom
— Tempo: #237
— Experience: #95
— Continuity: #339
— Iowa State scored 41-59-54 points in last three games.
— Cyclones forces turnovers 24.7% of time (#4)
— Iowa State is 14-0 out of conference (NC SOS #328)
— Cyclones are 10-10 vs top 50 teams.
— Iowa State’s schedule, to this point: #11
— bench minutes: #254

— Miami (25-10) ranked #44 by KenPom
— Tempo: #148
— Experience: #147
— Continuity: #241
— Miami won nine of its last 12 games.
— Hurricanes are shooting 54.9% inside arc (#22)
— Miami is #265 team in country on defensive boards.
— Four of Miami’s last five games were decided by 4 or less points.
— Miami’s schedule, to this point: #49
— bench minutes: #354

— Underdogs are 3-0 ATS in Sweet 16 games between #10/#11 seeds.

#1 Seeds are 16-5-1 ATS L8Y (Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas)
• #2 Seed dogs are 3-1 ATS (Duke)
• #3 Seed favs are 1-6 ATS L8Y (Purdue, Texas Tech)
• #4 Seeds are 3-11-1 ATS L8Y (Arkansas, Providence, UCLA)
• #5 Seeds are 2-8 ATS L7Y (Houston)
• #8 Seed dogs are 5-1-1 ATS L20Y (N Carolina)
• #10 Seed favs are 0-5 ATS (MIami-Fla)
• #11 or worse Seed dogs > 4 pts are 11-2 ATS L9Y
(Michigan, St Peters)
• Favorites of 11 > pts are 4-12 ATS L20Y (Purdue)
• Favs who scored 85 > pts in Rds 1 and 2 are 8-2 ATS
L20Y (Arizona)
• Dogs off a SU win of 25 > pts are 6-2 ATS L10Y (Providence)
Best Team ATS records in this round
Texas Tech 2-0, Villanova 3-1, Michigan 5-2, N Carolina 6-3.
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Arizona, Arkansas, Duke, Miami-Fl 0-3, UCLA 2-9, Purdue 1-4.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 11-3 as dogs 12 < pts, SEC: 16-6 off ATS win.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 1-4 as dogs > 2 pts, Big 10: 3-8 ATS as dogs.

As long as Jaime Jaquez Jr. plays, I love how UCLA matches up with UNC.

UNC isn’t efficient at stopping mid-range shots and the Heels won’t pressure the ball, so the UCLA shotmakers will make the necessary jumpers. Also, Tyger Campbell will have all the time in the world to walk the ball up the floor, set up Mick Cronin’s offense and control the pace of the game.

UNC likes to run, and it doesn’t want to get caught playing UCLA’s game. Unfortunately, that’s how this game is going to play out.

You can match UCLA’s ML with any of the other games you like today. However, my favorite is matching it with Purdue’s ML in something I call the “Fade the Cinderella Parlay.”

It’s been a nice run for Saint Peter’s, and it hurts to say goodbye. But it’s time. Both of the previous 15 seeds to make the second weekend lost before the Elite Eight (although both covered), and I’m expecting this one to lose too.

Purdue is usually a good favorite to back and will blitz the Peacocks’ interior defense with its size advantage. KC Ndefo is a great interior defender and rim protector, but how does he keep up with Zach Edey and Trevion Williams for 40 minutes?

And after Purdue shot 46 free throws against Texas, the Boilermakers get a Saint Peter’s team that is 348th in opponent free-throw rate.

Pairing these two MLs together would give us -111 odds on FanDuel. UCLA ML & Purdue Parlay /T.Mcgrath

Saint Peter’s wasn’t intimidated by one of the top favorites to win the NCAA Tournament in Kentucky. The same goes for Murray State’s 21-game win streak. The Peacocks legitimately played great in both of those matchups and have the depth to always keep fresh legs on the floor.

Now, they have a new challenge in Purdue, which boasts a 7-foot-4 center and a potential top-five NBA draft pick at guard.

I anticipate Holloway to utilize a similar approach to Purdue as he did Kentucky. They will focus on locking down the perimeter shooters and allow Purdue’s big men to get to the free throw line.

Saint Peter’s offense will have opportunities to expose Purdue’s lackluster defense. It will need Daryl Banks III and Edert to continue their hot outside shooting.

Saint Peter’s is set to win the turnover battle, which has been a common theme for upsets in the NCAA Tournament. The Peacocks have been one of the most profitable teams for bettors this season, boasting a 22-9 record against the spread, including nine in a row.

The last two 15-seeds that made it to the Sweet 16 lost outright, but covered the spread.

Though Saint Peter’s magical tournament run may come to an end, I anticipate it keeping its nine-game win streak against the spread alive. St Peters +12.5 /By K.Remillard

The most impressive part about Miami’s two victories over USC and Auburn is that the Hurricanes efficiently scored at the rim.

For the season, they’re at 64% on shot attempts at the rim. Against USC, they put up 1.13 PPP at the rim and then had 40 points there as well against Auburn. So, even though Iowa State is 44th in the nation in defending at the rim, I still believe that Miami will have success there.

The biggest thing with Miami is teams have to stop it in transition if they want to have any chance of keeping its offense in check.

The Hurricanes are the No. 1 team in the county in terms of efficiency in transition, while Iowa State — which is top-20 in PPP allowed in half-court defense — is barely above average defending in transition.

Miami is also top-four in the country in turnover percentage on offense, which is huge against an Iowa State defense that turns opponents over at a top-five rate, per KenPom.

The big thing for me is that if Iowa State wants to try and play this game in the half-court, it won’t work. The Cyclones feature one of the worst half-court offenses in college basketball.

They’re 336th in PPP in the half-court, per ShotQuality. In their two games so far in the tournament, they’ve failed to average over .80 PPP with their half-court offense, which is really bad.

The problem is, that’s how a team would beat Miami because the Hurricanes are 175th in defending in the half-court but 60th in transition in terms of PPP allowed.

So, this is a horrific matchup for Iowa State, which received the benefit of playing two very poor offenses in the first two rounds.

This will be a wake-up call for the Cyclones, so I love the Hurricanes -2.5. Mia -3 to 4.5/B.Cunningham