NCAAB wagering

A little short but sweet introduction before the bets follow. As far as wagering in relation to bankroll, I strongly believe that variation of bet sizes is a must as there are indeed games that will show face to be bet larger than normal. But lets not get out of hand. *, ** & *** bets are all that will be made here. Variation of bets sizes is important but too big of variation of bet sizes can be catostrophic. As simple as that in my opinion. 

1st bet:

The Mastodons leading scorer (Mo Evans) will miss the spring semester to concentrate on his academics. Lots of offense coming from behind the arc for the Mastodons this season. Especially the last 2 games w/o Evans in the lineup (29 long balls made in last 2 games). Only 4 times in 19 games this year have the Bison allowed 40% or more from their opponents in 3pt%. The Mastodons will be a heavily bet on team in this game as they are currently the ATS front runners at 13-2ats. However they have been a dog in 10 of their 17 lined games thus far. Now they have to lay points vs a solid defense in a conference game minus their best player. The Mastodons lost 4 games with Evans in the lineup and have gone 1-1 so far without him. The Mastodons may be 13-2 in the Summit but there are only 3 teams in the Summit allowing 66ppg or less right now.

SDSU 66.8ppg

Denver 65.6ppg

NDSU 64.9ppg

And so far the Mastodons beat Denver by just 1pt and just recently lost to SDSU by 16pts. 

FYI: NDSU just recently beat SDSU by 11 and Denver by 26. 

Seeing IPFW as a dog for most of the season thus far (59% of the time). I think having them favorites even at home for this game is a mistake and it’s time for a market fluctuation. 

1st bet Jan 21st:

***North Dakota St +2(-120) 

2nd bet:

The Mountaineers have been favored in just 2 basketball games all season long. Games they lost collectively by a combined 25pts (16pt loss to Charlotte as -4.5pt favs and 9pt loss to Furman as -3.5pt favs). The best defense in the Sun Belt (Arkansas Little Rock) recently destroyed the Mountaineers by 26pts. The Mountaineers are a 1 man show with senior Frank Eaves the lone member on his team that scores more than 10ppg (20.3 to be exact). And  in my opinion one man shows struggle vs solid defensive teams as they just recently did vs Little-Rock. Georgia St ranks as the #2 defense as far as ppg allowed at 62ppg. With an atrocious defense that the Mountaineers have as well I think it’s clear to see why this number has already moved from -3(-110) to -5(-110). Road chalk within conferences is something that’s frowned upon by many successful longterm bettors at first glance. But when used properly vs inferior teams, there are indeed wagers that make much sense. This one fits the mold in my eyes to back the road chalk…

2nd bet Jan 21st:

**Georgia St -5(-110)

Fairfield vs Marist… 2 teams here where defense is not only optional but talent is lacked to actually play it. A result of so many freshman that will be on the court at the same time. I fail to see who can stop Marcus Gilbert from getting his tonight though. Gilbert is a very talented played that can do it all at 6’6’’. A do it all type of player like Gilbert vs such an inferior defense like Marist is hard to look past. Especially since coach Johnson has really sped up the Stags tempo this year, which has really opened things up. Both Fairfield & Marist allowing 80ppg but the Stags actually have the better FG% on both sides of the ball…

3rd bet:

**Fairfield ML(-130)

Other leans tonight were on:

Wright St +8 (Seems like a heavy dose of points for Wright St at home. But Valpo is really handling their business vs all types of teams this year. I like Wright St’s defense but offense see’s a bit too many droughts at times. 2 of the 3 teams Valpo lost to this year both average better than 75ppg on offense. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Valpo handle their business again here. As a bettor sometimes I’ll find myself looking at all the numbers, and even though the feeling is one team may be way stronger (Valpo), it’s still hard yet to lay certain numbers with that team. Wright St has only lost 1 game at home this year. They should lose #2 tonight but…)

St Peter’s +8, (Jordan Washington serving 2nd game of 2 game suspension tonight for Iona)

Saturday wagers:

*Seton Hall +8.5(-110), Both Xavier & Seton Hall have been beating spreads consistently this year. Xavier at 67% & Seton Hall at 63% against the spread. This is a bounce back game for Xavier at home and because of that I believe we have inflation in the number. At -2 to -4 I would have been a potential buyer of Xavier, but at this price I just can’t ignore the price. Xavier toughest game this season was vs Villanova, a game they lost by 31pts. Isaiah Whitehead has yet to reach his full potential as a young but highly touted sophomore. And when it all finally sets in for him, Seton Hall is going to be a force. At this price he won’t even have to be his best, as he has a solid contribution from the other starters as well.

***UConn -4(-110), 3pt% defense is key here… Here are the Huskies opponents 3pt made/3pt attempted in their last 12 games…5/21, 8/25, 6/25, 8/19, 7/18, 5/15, 6/23, 4/17, 12/30, 5/22, 3/14, 4/21 = 73 for 250(29%)

They already trashed the Wolverines earlier this year whom average 26.7 3pt shots per game.

Here’s The Hoyas last 10 games in 3pt shot attempts = 25, 19, 24, 31, 24, 15, 23, 21, 22, 29 = 233 = 23.3pg

Now keep in mind that Michigan was a to 10 team in 3pt% at 46.6%. Georgetown barely cracks the top 50 in 3pt% at 41.8%. Now iv’e seen a few Georgetown games this year, and they take a lot of bad shots from what Iv’e seen. Lots of forced jumpers off the dribble in ISO sets. Doesn’t sound promising at all. 

The Hoyas went 10 for 25 from behind the arc vs Xavier in their most recent game winning by 9pts. The Catch = Xavier 3pt% defense currently rated #327 in NCAAB (41.1%rate). Nothing compared to what the Huskies have currently done as stated above. I’m getting the home team with strength’s and a mild number to lay. 

**Akron -11.5(-110), Undefeated at home & #2 in NCAAB at 3pt shots attempted per game & #5 in 3pt%(rate) vs Miami(Oh) and their #336 3pt% defense. 

**Ohio +4(-110), Ohio & Toledo are the top 2 offenses overall in 2pt%. While CMU on the other hand is struggling to guard the hoop with a 53.3% opponent shooting % from 2pt range (#317). CMU has 4 wins this year over teams not in D1 competition and has only covered 3 spreads all season long. Ohio should have the upper hand in this game.

**East Tenn ST -12.5(-110), The Citadel wastes absolutely no time with pace running up and down the court (67.3 shots per game #2) & (83.6 possessions per game #1). Which results in lots of open looks for their opponents. Hence them being dead last in all of NCAAB with a 61.2% 2pt% defense. They have played many inferior teams this year. But try to remember what Butle did to them absolutely dismantling them 144 to 71 in regulation. A 73pt regulation defeat. YES YOU HEARD THAT RIGHT. That was the first game of the season for the Bulldogs. However since then they have played a long list of NOBODIES. East Tenn St has the 2nd highest eFG% on offense since the Butler game. 

3pt% defense also very important here since The Bulldogs jack up more 3’s than any other team in NCAAB (34.7). Here’s the last 12 opponents 3pt shots made/3pt attempts for East Tennessee State: 2/15, 11/20, 4/12, 9/27, 10/24, 6/19, 3/28, 6/20, 6/18, 11/24, 7/17, 4/16 = 79 for 240(33%). Butler was able to do what they did vs The Citadel by forcing 37 missed 3pt shots. The formula here is simple. If the Citadel’s 3pt shots fall, they succeed. If they don’t they’re in trouble. So you try and find a team to back that know’s how to defend that shot.

Sun Wagers:

**Youngstown St +6.5(-110), In 18 lined games the Vikings have been favored just 2 times. Losing outright at home by 15pts as -4pt favs to Bowling Green and winning at home as -11pt favs by 17pts over the Ill-Chicago Flames. But lets not put much into that win over the Flames as the Flames are currently rated the 3rd worst team in the country at 0-16su & 3-13ats vs D1 teams. I’m sure there are multiple high school teams out there that could punish the flames. What this game comes down to between the Vikings and the Penguins is offense. Both teams are already challenged on the defensive side of the ball. But when it comes to scoring points the vikings are down right pathetic with an eFG% of 45.8% (#308). While like likes of Bobby Hain continues to sit out with a foot injury, the Penguins still have much better scoring options than the Vikings. This spread is too big and a * play on the ML is worth it as well.

**Iowa -4(-110), The numbers say that Iowa has played a strength of schedule that is 48 slows tougher than that of Purdue. And I think that’s being generous. Iowa is currently undefeated in B10 play with notable wins already over MSU, Mich, Purdue, Neb. Purdue has already lost 2x’s in B10 play with just 1 notable win over Mich. Don’t see Purdue getting 1 back today own the road.

***Wright St -18(-110), Only 1 team in D-1 play has a worst eFG% than the Flames do this year. UIC is the product of way too many changes with little recruiting this off-season. Their leading scorer is a freshman who takes 14.2 shots per game only making 5.2 of them (36%). Wright St is 9-1su in their last 10 games winning those 9 games by an average of 15.4ppg. Asking the Raiders to better than average by just 3pts seems very lucrative.

Road defeat margins for UIC:

27

21

17

28

18

25

17

13

=

20.75ppg

This is road game #3 in a row not to mention staying an extra day because snow prevented this game from being played yesterday. These kids probably just want to get home to their comfy dorm rooms and meals…

Mon 1 wager so far:

***Ohio St/Penn St u138(-110), Penn St is currently the worst scoring offense in the B10 in ppg and they are also the 3rd slowest in tempo (or possessions per game). Putting those numbers into to play on the road vs Ohio St and the nations #23 defense in opponents eFG%. Smells like a low scoring game to me. Especially seeing that the Buckeyes offense nowhere close to what it was last season. Both OSU & PSU are excellent 2p% defenses this year at #18 & #56 respectively.

Tue Notes & wagers:

West Virginia vs Kansas St, 

Kansas St is 6-1-1ats this year as dogs. Numbers are very even between them and WVU in this game which kind of draws me to taking the +10.5. This is a WV team that barely covered -11.5 vs James Madison (Won by 13), barely covered -7 vs Richmond (Won by 8), failed to cover -10.5 vs TCU (won by 8) & failed to cover -12 vs Texas (lost by 7). The Mountaineers are highly overrated in my opinion and Kansas St is going to be a tough out let alone spotting them more than 10 points. 

Wisconsin vs Indiana, 

Wisconsin can slow the game down all they want. It still doesn’t change the fact that the Hoosiers are better in almost every single category on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers are the #2 team in the nation in eFG%. And even though they are currently w/o Blackmon Jr. Yogi Ferrell is an excellent player in this conference and a great floor general, 17.25ppg, 7apg in his last 4 games. In those games the Hoosiers have out rebounded their opponents 167 to 110 for a margin of +14.25 and won this games by an average of 24.5pts per contest. The Hoosiers seem to be getting better as time goes on,  and they played a bad game and still won by 1pt at home vs the Badgers (just 5 games ago). The Hoosiers overcame 19 turnovers in that game and got some important but easy baskets from freshman Thomas Bryant. Bryant is a huge body at 6’10’’ 250 and is getting better with every game and when on the floor these NCAAB teams are struggling to handle his size and composure in the paint (72% from the field this year). Wisconsin has already lost 5 games at home this season and had the likes of Bo Ryan step down from coaching early this year directly after a win at home vs Texas A&M-CC. Although he was supposed to retire at seasons end it seems as if he knew he was coaching a team that was not doing much this year. Most of this can be referenced back to losing their home opener to Western Illinois, a team that has yet to win a game in Summit play (0-7). This are very bad right now in Madison, Wisconsin, and it’s unsure when they will turn around. Let me repeat “Wisconsin lost at home this year to a team that is currently 0-7 in Summit league play”. The puke factor is very high right now for all parties involved in completion for the Badgers basketball squad. And The Hoosiers are a very good basketball team.

Duesquesne vs Lasalle, 

When you play as fast as Duquesne does it’s hard to relate efficiency numbers to acquire a betting advantage. But facts are the Explorers 2pt% defense is atrocious at #288 while the Dukes 2pt% offense is excellent at #34, and there are only 3 offenses in the A10 that average less than 70ppg

Saint Louis 67.6ppg

George Mason 65.3ppg

Lasalle 64.4ppg (Conference worst)

The Dukes beat Saint louis by 10pts (up 25 at HT and as much as 31 in 2H) & beat Geoge Mason on the road by 11pts (Were up by as much as 17pts in both middle of both half). And now the Dukes get to pay an offense even worse off than those 2 teams which makes laying only -9.5 seem moderate at best

1 wager on:

**Kansas St +10.5(-110)

***Indiana -1(-125)

**Duequesne -9.5(-110)