NCAAB wagering

NCABB 1/27:

***Louisville -8(-110), 

Louisville’s games this year vs A/TO ratio (offense) teams #200 or worse:

FSU(#214) won by 19pts and covered the -10pt spread

WF(#235) won by 8pts but failed to cover the large -15pt spread

UMKC(#271) won by 28pts and covered the -24.5pt spread

Kennesaw St(#330) won by 37pts and just barely covered the ridiculous -36pt spread

EMU(#240) won by 33pts and covered the -20.5pt spread

ST Francis NY(#294) won by 44pts (No point spread)

Samford(#249) won by 41pts and covered the -23pt spread

That’s 6-0su & 5-1ats winning all the games by 8pts or more. And that’s exactly where this number currently sits, leaving value on the table in my eyes.

Va Tech has turned the ball over 97 times in their last 8 games 12.1 per contest. And 22 times they turned the ball over vs the only team they faced in the top 5 in A/TO ratio defense this year, losing that game by 25pts and failng to cover the +8 at home. 

FYI: Louisville is #5 in A/TO ratio on defense & Va Tech is #213 in A/TO ratio on offense. 

Morehead St -7.5(-110), (Not a wager just yet) 

Austin Peay is #319 in A/TO ratio and Morehead St’s defense is #18 in A/TO ratio. 

SE Missouri(#308) won by 27pts and covered the -16pt spread

S Mississippi(#313) won by 15pts but failed to cover the large -19.5pt spread

Corbin Collins is questionable for today’s game after what’s being called a “Tweaked groin injury” 6 days ago. He missed the last game vs Jacksonville St, a game they lost. Making this wager will be based on his status for the game. I have a hunch he will play after their recent loss w/o him. But until I get confirmation, I won’t make the wager. So lets keep an update on this status together here for anyone following. Collins had 23pts, 3steals, & 10 assists in Morehead’s 2 wins over S Mississippi and SE Missouri. If Collins plays I’ll be risking ***’s and if he doesn’t play I’ll be risking *. 

1/28

NCAAB 5 wagers & 1 lean:

**Ohio St ML(-115), 

Interesting to me that Ohio St’s 3 B10 losses came against  3 of the 6 teams in conference play that are averaging 77ppg or better (Maryland, Purdue & Indiana). They have yet to play the other 3 in that category (Iowa, MSU & Michigan). Only Rutgers allows more ppg on defense within the B10 than Illinois, however nobody is worse than Illinois on defense in the B10 in 2pt% defense as the Fighting Illini are dead last in the conference at 51.9% ranking #290 overall in NCAAB. 

Illinois 2 B10 wins this season seen them make 15 for 35 from 3pt land & 39 of 50 from the charity stripe. The Buckeyes have allowed 60 made 3pters on 188 attempts within the B10 (32%). The Buckeyes have also only allowed their B10 opponents to attempt 152fts in 8 games (19 per contest) & only 11 in their previous meeting this year vs Illinois.

Size has a big advantage in this matchup as well as the Buckeyes have 4 players standing taller than 6’7’’ playing 15+ minutes (Loving, Diop, Thompson & Middens), while Illinois only has 1 player standing taller than 6’7’’ whom plays 15+ minutes per game (Finke). One of the main reasons Illinois lost the first game as the Buckeyes out rebounded Illinois 42 to 33 as the Buckeyes had 9 blocks to Illinois ZERO. It’s this size advantage that helped the Buckeyes get to the free throw line 39 times in their last game vs Illinois to just 11 for Illinois (as stated above). As Illinois jacked up 32 shots from behind the arc. It’s tough to be successful shooting over the top of a solid defense that holds a strong height advantage. 

**Evansville ML(-145)

Both teams here have played very weak schedule’s. But SIU has played a significantly worse sos than Evansville by my eyes overlooking the numbers. SIU has played just 1 team inside the top 100 losing by 25pts at home to #24 Wichita St. Evansville on the other hand has played 3 teams inside the top 100 losing all 3 but doing so in a competitive fashion.

Lost 57-69 to #49 Providence on a neutral court

Lost on the road at #52 Arkansas 76-89

Lost on the road at #24 Wichita St 64-67 but were actually tied up at 57 all with just 3 minutes to go

Senior DJ Balentine is one of the most productive guards in the country and has been now for 3 years running. His senior teammate Egidijus Mockevicius (Don’t ask me how to pronounce) has been a double double machine for quite some time with his 6’10’’ 225 frame. 17 double double’s this year and 20 last year. Last year this Evansville team cruised through the CIT tourney comfortably to the championship. But prior to that they beat SIU twice both at home and on the road.

Both Balentine & Mockevicius produced 65pts, 16reb & 6assists in the 2 games vs SIU last season. 

**Neb-Omaha +8.5(-110),

The super fast tempo of Nebraska-Omaha is cruising through the Summit right now winning 6 of their 7 conference games played thus far. Albeit South Dakota State is succeeding as well at 5-2su within the Summit, they’re not cashing tickets. The Jackrabbits have been favored in each of their past 9 basketball games. They have cashed just 2 of those tickets (25%). In 18 lined goes this year Omaha has went 12-6ats (67%). They were dogs in 8 of those games going 4-4su & 7-1ats. Very intrigued here catching this many points within the Summit after cruising to a quick 6-1su record. 

Omaha is very good at forcing turnovers within their quick paced style. In fact they are #1 in the Summit at forcing turnovers this year on defense (16.3 per game), which is good enough for #10 overall in the nation. 

**Towson ML(-145)

***Drexel/Towson u125(-110)

Towson’s defense vs Drexel’s offense in this game is a huge mismatch. 

Drexel off vs Towson def

eFG% (#344) vs (#24)

3pt% (#307) vs (#93)

2pt% (#342) vs (#32)

FG% (#338) vs (#31)

Both Drexel & Towson are slower paced teams at #268 & #302. This game may not even crack 100pts as Towson offensive numbers are nothing to brag about with eFG% of #314, 3pt% of #277, 2pt% of #307 & FG% of #293. Both teams combined here, may not make as many field goals as Omaha or South Dakota St will alone. 

1/30

NCAAB

**USC/Wash o168(-110)

Was scores in P12 play this season

170

155

178

174

166

194

172

189

175ppg in P12 play

USC scores in P12 play this season

152

155

170

164

204

140

172

167

166ppg in P12 play

These 2 teams race up and down the court. Washington is #2 with 81.8 possessions per game and USC is #8 with 77.6 possessions per game. In their last meeting (this year) the Huskies overcame a 22pt deficit to squeak out a 2pt win, and they did so with 81 shot attempts and 35ft attempts. There was a total of 147 shot attempts and 59ft’s in that game. Both of these teams have an 8 players each averaging at least 10+ mpg, which is crucial when you play as fast as these teams do. Always a fresh man ready to sub in and keep the pace moving. 

Based on the amount of shots taken in their previous match-up the score should have been 96-82 Wash totaling 178pts in relation to each teams %’s. That game seen an 87-85pt Wash win. underplaying the averages by just opts at 172. I feel at o168 here I’m getting good value, on a game that probably sees a very strong chance to make it to 170+.