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    All Forums | College Basketball

    Need some help on NCAA Title Hedge and the proper way

    wolffer12
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    wolffer12
    wolffer12
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    Posted: Mar. 21, 2016 - 6:29 PM ET #1

    Look for thoughts on the best way to insure a profit on a huge field bet my booked offered at 150/1. Here is what I have bet to win the title this year and the payoffs.

    Oregon, TAMU, Syracuse, Wisky/ND, Miami, Indiana $15/+15000

    Kansas: $450/+450 plus I have them in a random team draw that would win me another $300

    UNC: $550/+550

    Gonzaga: $750/+3000

    Maryland: $855/+1800

    Virginia: $855/+1800

    Villanova: $650/+2500

    I'm thinking of laying the odds on UNC to win their region since I have the other 3 teams in that region at 150/1. The chalk on UNC is around -160 to win the region.

    I probably win all my bracket challenges if UVA wins the title as I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who picked them in the two pools I got into. Probably would also win if Nova plays for the title as they are in my title game.

    I can currently get Oklahoma at +900 and Duke at +2000 which would again get me another final four team.

    I personally think the winner is one of these 4 teams Nova, Kansas, UNC, or Virginia.

    What do you guys think is the best move here.

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Look for thoughts on the best way to insure a profit on a huge field bet my booked offered at 150/1. Here is what I have bet to win the title this year and the payoffs.

    Oregon, TAMU, Syracuse, Wisky/ND, Miami, Indiana $15/+15000

    Kansas: $450/+450 plus I have them in a random team draw that would win me another $300

    UNC: $550/+550

    Gonzaga: $750/+3000

    Maryland: $855/+1800

    Virginia: $855/+1800

    Villanova: $650/+2500

    I'm thinking of laying the odds on UNC to win their region since I have the other 3 teams in that region at 150/1. The chalk on UNC is around -160 to win the region.

    I probably win all my bracket challenges if UVA wins the title as I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who picked them in the two pools I got into. Probably would also win if Nova plays for the title as they are in my title game.

    I can currently get Oklahoma at +900 and Duke at +2000 which would again get me another final four team.

    I personally think the winner is one of these 4 teams Nova, Kansas, UNC, or Virginia.

    What do you guys think is the best move here.

     
    wolffer12
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2016 - 11:04 AM ET #2

    help
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    help
     
    Lucrative
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2016 - 11:33 AM ET #3

    Really don't think I could be more confused.
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    Really don't think I could be more confused.
     
    zamigo6
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2016 - 12:56 PM ET #4

    not sure what I'm looking at, but every time you bet a conflicting wager you are selling off the value of the original ticket...for example (with made up easy to follow numbers if you bet...

    UNC to win championship @ +1000 for $100

    &

    Virginia to win championship @ +1000 for $100

    You are actually getting each at +900, because if one wins the other one loses. So even though I have no idea what is going on in your original post, if you are really betting all of that at the same time, you can just imagine how terrible the value is on each ticket...
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    not sure what I'm looking at, but every time you bet a conflicting wager you are selling off the value of the original ticket...for example (with made up easy to follow numbers if you bet...

    UNC to win championship @ +1000 for $100

    &

    Virginia to win championship @ +1000 for $100

    You are actually getting each at +900, because if one wins the other one loses. So even though I have no idea what is going on in your original post, if you are really betting all of that at the same time, you can just imagine how terrible the value is on each ticket...
     
    wolffer12
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2016 - 5:32 PM ET #5

    Ok let me explain a little better.

    I have a field bet at 150/1 that includes all of the following teams:

    Miami, Oregon, Indiana, Wisky, ND, TAMU, Syracuse

    I want to insure the best value I can from that list as I don't think the champion is in that list. I have a total of $550 bet on the year with these other teams still alive and how much I get paid if they win

    Nova win $650

    UNC win $550

    Kansas win $450

    Maryland win $855

    Virginia win $855

    So when would you start to hedge a little more and what is the expected value on that field bet that would pay $7500

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    Ok let me explain a little better.

    I have a field bet at 150/1 that includes all of the following teams:

    Miami, Oregon, Indiana, Wisky, ND, TAMU, Syracuse

    I want to insure the best value I can from that list as I don't think the champion is in that list. I have a total of $550 bet on the year with these other teams still alive and how much I get paid if they win

    Nova win $650

    UNC win $550

    Kansas win $450

    Maryland win $855

    Virginia win $855

    So when would you start to hedge a little more and what is the expected value on that field bet that would pay $7500

     
    loudmouthsouth
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2016 - 5:39 PM ET #6

    Wait until the Final Four next week. The field bet is a loser. None of those teams are going to win. After all is said and done it looks like you're going to break about even. Terrible money management with terrible future odds. What most people don't realize is a 6 team open parlay playing the moneyline each game nets you way more then those measly futures prices. In my opinion only UNC and Kansas have a legitimate chance to win the title.
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    Wait until the Final Four next week. The field bet is a loser. None of those teams are going to win. After all is said and done it looks like you're going to break about even. Terrible money management with terrible future odds. What most people don't realize is a 6 team open parlay playing the moneyline each game nets you way more then those measly futures prices. In my opinion only UNC and Kansas have a legitimate chance to win the title.
     
    wolffer12
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 11:34 AM ET #7

    any other opinions? Should I let it ride one more round?
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    any other opinions? Should I let it ride one more round?
     
    Roscoe3000
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 12:10 PM ET #8

    Do you have $15 on the field bet (which only pays 2275 including original bet) or $50 (which would pay the 7500)?
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    Do you have $15 on the field bet (which only pays 2275 including original bet) or $50 (which would pay the 7500)?
     
    rainmaker1855
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 12:44 PM ET #9

    rather than hedging why not try to sell off pieces of your action to other bettors?
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    rather than hedging why not try to sell off pieces of your action to other bettors?
     
    wolffer12
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 1:37 PM ET #10

    I have a total of $50 bet on that field bet. It isn't a huge amount but I want to profit off this bet.

    My book is offering the following now. Any 1 seed wins the title -165. Would cover more on the major teams I am missing.

    Any 4 seed wins the title (ISU Duke two that I'm missing) 14/1

    Any 2 seed wins the title (nova boomer) 4/1

    I don't think there is any value in those bottom two but the first one has me interested where I can put up 165 to win another 100

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    I have a total of $50 bet on that field bet. It isn't a huge amount but I want to profit off this bet.

    My book is offering the following now. Any 1 seed wins the title -165. Would cover more on the major teams I am missing.

    Any 4 seed wins the title (ISU Duke two that I'm missing) 14/1

    Any 2 seed wins the title (nova boomer) 4/1

    I don't think there is any value in those bottom two but the first one has me interested where I can put up 165 to win another 100

     
    HarryBJohnson
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 1:50 PM ET #11

    A&M is gonna win it all... so just sell all your other tickets and dump all the proceeds on A&M. You can thank me later
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    A&M is gonna win it all... so just sell all your other tickets and dump all the proceeds on A&M. You can thank me later
     
    wolffer12
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 3:22 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by HarryBJohnson:

    A&M is gonna win it all... so just sell all your other tickets and dump all the proceeds on A&M. You can thank me later

     there will be one hell of a party if this happens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HarryBJohnson:

    A&M is gonna win it all... so just sell all your other tickets and dump all the proceeds on A&M. You can thank me later

     there will be one hell of a party if this happens.

     
    forty9ersfan80
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 3:24 PM ET #13

    leave the 4 seeds out they will both lose this weekend. put more on north carolina and oklahoma they will meet in the title game.
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    leave the 4 seeds out they will both lose this weekend. put more on north carolina and oklahoma they will meet in the title game.
     
    Roscoe3000
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 9:03 PM ET #14

    You have positive expected value for your bets.  Hedging with -EV bets would reduce your EV to very little.  you can hedge for guaranteed profit, but it may only be around $100-$300, depending on the odds you are getting on the hedging wagers.  You will also need to have almost 7000 in your account to place the wagers.  If you give me the futures odds, I can tell you what to bet and your guaranteed profit.
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    You have positive expected value for your bets.  Hedging with -EV bets would reduce your EV to very little.  you can hedge for guaranteed profit, but it may only be around $100-$300, depending on the odds you are getting on the hedging wagers.  You will also need to have almost 7000 in your account to place the wagers.  If you give me the futures odds, I can tell you what to bet and your guaranteed profit.
     
    Gamebreaker23
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 9:14 PM ET #15

    I wouldn't do anything........either you have a winner in there on everything you bet or you don't and you're not going to make more money wagering more with or against your bets.....everyone is all over UNC and they can do it they just have to play their best....i think kansas has a great shot too.....you don't have anything on oklahoma and they are great, i don't know who has a shot this year I feel like kansas, unc, oklahoma, virginia and maybe a villanova, indiana, duke, or notre dame...you seem to have money on all them, just leave it be and try to win on wagers on the individual games from here on out. 
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    I wouldn't do anything........either you have a winner in there on everything you bet or you don't and you're not going to make more money wagering more with or against your bets.....everyone is all over UNC and they can do it they just have to play their best....i think kansas has a great shot too.....you don't have anything on oklahoma and they are great, i don't know who has a shot this year I feel like kansas, unc, oklahoma, virginia and maybe a villanova, indiana, duke, or notre dame...you seem to have money on all them, just leave it be and try to win on wagers on the individual games from here on out. 
     
    RicoCortez
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2016 - 10:52 PM ET #16

    With all the variables inherent in your picks, I would wait to see which teams make it to the final four.  Perhaps then you will have a better handle on your odds.  Hedging, at this time, seems like guessing to me   
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    With all the variables inherent in your picks, I would wait to see which teams make it to the final four.  Perhaps then you will have a better handle on your odds.  Hedging, at this time, seems like guessing to me   
     
     
    wolffer12
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    Posted: Mar. 24, 2016 - 11:38 AM ET #17

    Thanks guys. I think I will let this run one more round then I'll get serious. I will for sure have one elite 8 team in ND/Wisky. I hope to get a couple more as it would make the elite 8 round really fun.

    I personally believe that either UNC/Kansas/UVA goes down these next two days. I just hope it isn't UVA.

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    Thanks guys. I think I will let this run one more round then I'll get serious. I will for sure have one elite 8 team in ND/Wisky. I hope to get a couple more as it would make the elite 8 round really fun.

    I personally believe that either UNC/Kansas/UVA goes down these next two days. I just hope it isn't UVA.

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