In KingScorpio's thread today, a poster hypothesized that the Tar Heels, after being held down in a defensive struggle on Saturday at home against Virginia, might learn a lesson and play some defense themselves tonight in South Bend. To that I responded with this...
I think it will more likely work the other way. After getting stuffed at home by Virginia, the Tar Heels may welcome an uptempo affair. On January 29th, Wake Forest hosted Virginia, and like the Tar Heels this past Saturday, lost by a bucket in a game that finished in the 60s, 65-63. A couple days later the Demon Deacons traveled to Notre Dame and lost 90-80 in a game that sailed over by 23 points.
I looked into this situation some more but found that teams don't necessarily trend "over" after playing the defending national champion Virginia Cavaliers. But then I did find that the Irish HAVE played overs as home favorites this season when coming off a road loss to an ACC opponent. in fact tonight will mark the fourth time this season that the Irish are favored at home following a road loss to an ACC team. The previous three home games all went over by double digits. Check it out...
Notre Dame opened the season on November 6th with a 76-65 loss to the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill. On November 9th, they played their home opener as 20.5 point favorites over Robert Morris. They won 92-57, going over the 135 total by 14 points.
On December 4th, the Irish lost at Maryland, 72-51. On December 7th, they hosted Boston College as 12.5 point favorites and lost 73-72, going over the 134 total by 11 points.
On January 25th, the Irish lost at Florida State 85-84. On January 29th, they hosted Wake Forest as 9 point favorites and won 90-80, going over the 147 total by 23 points.
If you're wondering about 1st and 2nd halves, every 1st and 2nd half went over in these three games except for the first half against Robert Morris when Robert Morris scored only 20 points. That stayed under by a few. The 2nd halves went over by 7.5, 15.5, and 18.
I'm on North Carolina and Notre Dame over 148 and you can probably guess what I'll be doing at halftime. Good luck on whatever you choose to do tonight.
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