Posted:
#1
I know many of you will disregard this, and that is fine. This post is intended to explore a reality that everyone should understand:
It's a simple premise:
The Top 25 ratings are irrelevant, misleading, and wholly different from the rankings used by Vegas in setting lines. They should be ignored at all costs.
For all intents and purposes, when capping a game, you are well-served to pretend the Media Top 25 polls do not exist.
They are a tremendous waste of time and energy, and serve only to mislead the betting and non-betting public.
Now, why do I say that? On any given day, you can scroll through this forum and see an abundance of posts wondering why a certain ranked team is either:
-not favored by enough points
-an underdog to an unranked team
These posts are a direct consequence of years of training and brainwashing from ESPN and other "mainstream" sources that frame the Top 25 polls as an authoritative measure of a team's ability.
Let's use a timely example. Tomorrow, Dayton, currently ranked #13 & #15 in the AP & USA Today Polls, respectively, travels to St. Joe's, currently unranked by either poll.
St. Joe's is a -4.5 favorite.
Cue the conspiracies. How is the 13th ranked team a 4.5 point underdog?? Is this a trap?? Shouldn't the line be reversed?
No. It shouldn't. Because Vegas thinks these two teams are even and is giving St. Joe's 4/4.5 points for its homecourt.
How is this possible?
Because it's no secret at this point that Vegas is copying the KenPom lines. KenPom is strictly math-based. It doesn't care about the eye test, conference affiliation, or any of the crap that goes into making the farcical Top 25 media polls.
Here is the Vegas/KenPom rankings of these two teams:
#36 St. Joe's
#37 Dayton
Guess what KenPom's prediction is for this game? SJU 72-68.
In the oddsmakers' minds, Dayton is not the 13th or 15th ranked team in the country. They are NOT even in the Top 25. They are the #37 team in the country and are on the road against an equal team. The line reflects this calculation.
It's a similar story with Providence, which is egregiously still ranked by the media know-nothings (because, Kris Dunn is an NBA player, and stuff).
Providence Rankings:
USA Today Poll: #20
AP Poll: #23
Vegas Ranking: #57
Inevitably, many will characterize Providence as a 9.5 point underdog at Xavier tomorrow night as an inexplicable line. A ranked team catching 9.5 points?? But would you be equally alarmed by Stony Brook catching 9.5 points at Xavier? Of course not. Guess what? Vegas thinks Stony Brook (#54) is better than Providence (#57). But of course, the influence of the media will convince a great many people that this line is way off base.
I understand this post will go unheeded by many. It will do nothing to curb the number of "this line makes no sense" posts. We will still be treated to an array of conspiracy and trap theories about Vegas' diabolical plot to the steal the bettors' money.
0
Hot Forum Topics
