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Pix Friday Tourney Plays

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Posted: #1
Won my plays of the year with my biggest bets on saturday going 3-0.

used that winnings to go 2-0 on sunday.

Monday was a day of rest.

Tuesday went a respectable 18-6.

Wed went a decent 17-9.

Thursday went a tidy 21-10 



While folks were guessing what the early line was I was betting it on sunday night.

Louisville -12.5
Arizona -14.5
Conn -4
Wisky -9
SD state under 132
Virginia -19

---------------------------


I have since added Iowa state for 10x my normal bet -5.5 (bought 2) and Lou -12.5 (bought 2) for 10x my normal bet.

Moneyline parlays:

Florida
Arizona
Lou
Iowa st
Wisc
Virginia

pays 45 cents on the dollar

Lou
Iowa st 
Wisc

pays 37 cents on the dollar



Yesterday was truly an epic day for me.  I lost $9,250 by being 10 games over .500 on the day.

Why is it epic?  I had a total of $50,500 (w/ juice) riding on florida and went 0-3 on those picks.  Then my second best play of the day was louisville and I went 0-2 in those picks losing $24,500.    So outside of that 0-5 I went 21-5 and almost pulled even on the day.  Coupled with the fact that TWO of those losses were on unders that went over by a combined 3 pts.


Let's have a solid Friday guys.


 
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Posted: #2

....Not to mention an $21,000 swing ($10,000 wager won to a $11,000 wager lost) when San Diego state went to OT.


 
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Posted: #3
what you on today boss
 
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Posted: #4
i hope u played louisville ml second half! i was cheering for u.. 
 
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Posted: #5
Mercer +13?
 
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Posted: #6


Sup Jail.....sorry I was writing in another person's thread who picked NC Central today for the upset of the tourney over Iowa state.

That happens to be my biggest play of the day.

QUOTE Originally Posted by FlashThatUUU:

The Biggest Upset of the Tourney. 

Why you say? Well Defensively They allow Under 65 ppg. They hold teams Under 41% FG% and they have A positive turnover margin. Yeah but who have they played? Well of course they don't play anywhere near the schedule Iowa St has played but they did face Maryland, Cincy, Wichita St and Nc State. The only win was at Nc State but at least that's 3 tournament teams. 

Its gonna be tough to pull this off but the line is soft IMO. As good as Iowa St has been this year playing in the Big 12 their only laying 8 to A MEAC team? I don't know.  Jeremy Ingram is gonna have to ball to give this team the scoring their gonna need. Jordan Parks has to come off the bench and bury some 3's. These things are never easy to predict. They could get ran out the gym. But I'll leave you with this... remember Norfolk State's upset win over Missouri A few years ago. A lot of people including me were in love with Mizzou that year to make A deep run And they got knocked out in the first round by A 15 seeded Norfolk St team. MEAC school. Anything is possible in March. GL

NC Central +8    6% Bankroll bet
NC Central ML    2%  Bankroll bet

I would say I wish you the best but that would be a lie since I have iowa state big.

Here is the problem with your logic.

Defensively They allow Under 65 ppg.


Without going into crazy numbers, the teams they held to under 60 points ONLY AVERAGED 60 points.

Two of those games, Johnson and whales (47 pts....only played FIVE games all year) and Baber Scotia (huh?  what?) 46 greatly skew the number.

So you have 3 or 4 teams that they played twice which don't come close to averaging 60 points a game and you have those two games as well.....throw in a 43 point defensive shutout of the Campbell fighting Camels and that is easily 10+ games that would severely skew your defensive numbers.


Here is another interesting point:

Iowa state's low-water mark for the year is 70 points.

They had 11 points 13 minutes into the game and finished with 70.

Just a week ago against baylor they had only 11 points 15 minutes into the game and finished with 74.  They also trailed that game by double digits and won by 9.


The next problem Central will have is that Ingram is not a one man wrecking crew.  Sure he averages 20 points, however half of those come from the free throw line.  He isn't going to take over a game from the perimeter.  He can hit the free throws in crunch time and penetrate, however he isn't going to be raining 3s and jumpers.  

Iowa state has play 17 games against teams that were ranked in the top 25 this year, 4 in the top 10 winning 3 of those games.

They bring a team that averages 83 pts per game, the 23rd ranked rebounding game, the best assist numbers in the country and a top 40th shooting percentage all against top tier competition.


This game will be tight for the first 8-10 minutes, perhaps the first half.......Iowa state will win by 10+.

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Jailbait7127:

i hope u played louisville ml second half! i was cheering for u.. 

Yeah, I didn't even find out I won until this AM, when Man took the lead I turned it off.

No early noon plays just yet.

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:


Thanks slick....here is to a solid day.


noon:

Mercer +13   $2,500
Mercer +15  $2,500 (bought)

over 1h 66  $5,000
over gm 140 $10,000

team total over 63.5 mercer  $7,500
team total over 76.5 duke  $10,000



 
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Posted: #10

won ythursday's 7 team teaser, let's try it again.

7 Teams, 16 points, laying 3.5 to win 1:

to win $10,000:

Duke over 124.5
Virginia -4.5
E kent +30.5
Iowa state +7.5
Iowa st ov 128.5
Arizona -3.5
okla st +12.5



 
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Posted: #11
Decided to take baylor big.


why?

One team was ranked #7 earlier this year the other had their ticket punched to the NIT before they won few close ones.  Not to mention blowing a 20 pt lead to Ohio state.

Baylor $7,500 gm
baylor $2,500 1h
 
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Posted: #12
Mercer and Baylor 

Let's get this bro
 
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Posted: #13
Good Luck
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Risktaker22:

Mercer and Baylor 

Let's get this bro



I have more faith in both teams ability to score and let the other team score than the team itself though.

looking for a 3-5 pt game for duke at the half then unloading on ML probably -500 2h.

Even though it is tied currently......duke is getting too deep to the basket consistently.  

adding over 60 in the baylor game $5,000
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Pix:




I have more faith in both teams ability to score and let the other team score than the team itself though.

looking for a 3-5 pt game for duke at the half then unloading on ML probably -500 2h.

Even though it is tied currently......duke is getting too deep to the basket consistently.  

adding over 60 in the baylor game $5,000


3 stinking points from Nebraska 10 minutes into the game, last 9 mins only 1 pt.



anyways....let's talk about money to be made.



Team total over 33 mercer
team total over 39 duke

Duke......4 free throws 1h.....I see 20+ 2h.
Duke......8 for 21 for 3 pts....less threes, more shots taken with the Duke......21 rebounds to 12 for Mercer.  That number is STAGGERING considering how many missed 3s and 24 missed shots altogether.

$5,000 mercer team total 2h
$10,000 Duke team total 2h

$10,000 over 72.5 2h
$10,000 duke ML 2h

good luck

 
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Posted: #16
I like the over 72.5 Pix..
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Risktaker22:

I like the over 72.5 Pix..

With 69 at the half and 71 for a push for my game bet over $10,000 --  I had the perfect hedge out.  I am counting on a NON 1 possession game in the last 3 minutes to hit all my plays.

Here's hoping.




 
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Posted: #18
Hey Pix, I'm a fan of your work.  I normally like making my own decisions but I need advice on this one.  I have 9/10 wins on a parlay that pays 18k with Virginia -21.5 pending.  I don't wager large amounts the way you do...I'm a $100 a game bettor so this would be a huge day for me.

Would you hedge this or let it ride?
 
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Posted: #19
Who wouldnt Hedge that?
 
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Posted: #20
Lol yes hedge Pasteur!
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by F1rstdegree:

Who wouldnt Hedge that?


9 times out of 10 I would hedge this.  But my read on the Virginia game is coastal carolina is the worst offensive team remaining in the tournament, and they're playing the 2nd rated defense in the country (kenpom rating).  Bad offense matched up against air tight defense = blowout imo
 
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Posted: #22
The only game of the season Coastal Carolina played a defense close to Virginia's is Clemson, and Clemson won 69-40.  I'm curious to hear what Pix thinks though.


 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Hey Pix, I'm a fan of your work.  I normally like making my own decisions but I need advice on this one.  I have 9/10 wins on a parlay that pays 18k with Virginia -21.5 pending.  I don't wager large amounts the way you do...I'm a $100 a game bettor so this would be a huge day for me.

Would you hedge this or let it ride?

i certainly would hedge without thinking my friend, even if it is only $5k.

That pads the bankroll....who cares if you lose $5k, you just won $13k!!!


 
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Posted: #24
So if you drop $2200 on the dog you make $1900 minimum....for me its a no brainer because I value $1900 profit.
 
 
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And I apologize for hijacking your thread with this. 
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