Proof Books Are Very Good at Setting Lines in CBB

Whatever combination of analytics being used by the BOOKS they are very good. 

This confirms how important it is to get the best line or "sharpest" line and if the line on a team you like moves 1 or 2 points against you, it might be smart to stay away from the game.

Look at how many outcomes were settled within a point of the line.

Also, this was on Sunday when the card is not that large and look at how close all of these games were yesterday to the hitting the line.

Stonybrook -6 vs. Delaware won by 6      (74-68)    Exact HIT

Elon -1 vs. Canisius lost by 1                  (91-92)     2 point cover

Niagra -2.5 vs. Cornell won by 3             (77-74)     1/2 point cover

Fordham -6.5 vs. Howard wond by 7        (74-67)    1/2 point cover

Ill. State -10 vs. Cleve. St. won by 11       (88-77)   1 point cover

U. Vermont -5 vs. N. Eastern won by 5      (75-70)   Exact HIT

UCF -26 vs. Stetson won by 25                 (90-65)   1 point cover

S. Fran -13.5 over Cal. State won by 14     (68-54)   1/2 point cover

N. Mexico -13.5 vs. Cent. Ark won by 12    (82-70)   Exact HIT

Hartford -3 vs. Oakland won by 5               (87-82)   2 point cover

St. Johns -17 vs. Wagner won by 15        (73-58)      2 point cover

Pacific -3.5 vs. Cal. St. North won by 2       (79-77)    2 point cover

Ole Miss -19 vs. Tenn. Chat. won by 19      (90-70)     1 point cover

N. KY -6.5 vs. Miami O. won by 6               (72-66)     1/2 point cover

Here are 14 games on a Sunday where the outcome was decided within 2 points of the line.  Damn, these Books are pretty good or maybe this was a highly unusual day.

Makes you really wonder....lol........good to see you back In2it....miss those teasers......after i do my research I like to see what other cappers I respect are doing.....you're one the few...lol.....BOL

Appreciate your interest and comments.  The CBB cards have been a little thin lately for my system and I don't what to press things.  Today I did make the following play that I think looks really solid.

3 Team 8 pt. Teaser - 360 to win 300

Vandy +9 teased up from +1........ASU just won at Georgia by 2, but did not cover the -2.5 and they have been over in the southeast since Friday. I think Vandy could win this game SU, but definitely keep close against and ASU playing only their 2nd true road game this year and ASU is 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Drake -4 teased down from -12.......Drake is in a different class than SIU Edwardsville and that it easy to see by looking at their records and who they have both played thus far.  Drake is off a 68-77 loss, but covered vs. ranked Iowa State and should easily get back to their winning ways tonight at home where they are 3-0 and tonight they play an inferior opponent that is 0-2 on the road and 2-5 overall and SIUE have not played one quality opponent all year.

Montana -3 teased down from -11 .....Taking the clearly the better team at home to win by on 3 pointer.  This makes it easy.  Montana and North Dakota State both played Incarnate Wood and Miami Ohio on a neutral court less than a month ago.

Montana beat IW by 27 points and North Dakota State lost to IW by 2 points - 29 point swing.

Montana beat Miami O. by 2 and North Dakota State lost to Miami O. by 11 points - 13 point swing.

Now Montana is home and North Dakota State is OTR.....I will also be playing Montana -11 for a few dollars.

BOL and I will be posting regularly once the schedule thickens up a little.

 In2it

Yes I love me some teasers!

 You guys don't get it....

One Thing Hasn’t Changed: The Goal of Oddsmakers

One thing that hasn’t changed since the early days of sports betting is the ultimate aim set by the sportsbooks: balance the action on both sides of a wager.

If you’ve read our guide on reading and understanding odds, you’ll know that you can calculate the implied probability of an event happening simply by performing a few simple calculations.

However, betting lines aren’t designed to reflect the real and accurate probability of either outcome. After all, one of the best strategies to getting an edge over your sportsbook is making a wager when you think there’s a discrepancy between the real probability of an event and the implied probability determined from a betting line.

How Are Odds Determined?

Odds are engineered to attract equal action on both sides of a betting line. In a perfect world, a sportsbook receives equal betting volume on both sides of a wager. Then – win or lose – they’ll make 5-10% on the juice (or ‘vig’).

As such, it’s integral to understand that the chief function of oddsmakers isn’t to create an accurate (and probable) picture of reality: It’s to mitigate your sportsbook’s risk. Think of contemporary oddsmakers as risk management professionals, as well as expert sports predictors.

Everytime I hear this I laugh.  The truth is that bettors notice the close ones and discount the others as emotion isn't involved in "larger" losses or wins.  For example, I looked at 8 of the first games  results listed on Saturday......not so "Sharp", lol

Winner             Line          Actual

UNC              -3                -13

Mich              -24              -8

Nev               -16              -4 

Aub              -20               -4 (OT)

Ohio St         -18               -2

TTU              -18               -34

UVA              -7                 -12

KY                -15               -27

Also, contrary to much of what is said here, the book's aim is  not simplistically to always to get "even" money on both teams/sides.  This is grandpa's theory from the old days.  It's the 21st Century now.

There are factors and mathematical models that show the books exactly what to do to obtain maximum profit  For example in yesterday's Seattle/Niners game, despite most of the early $$$ being on Seattle, the line actually dropped down to give fewer points to the Niners.  This is because the books knew there would be large $$$ coming in on the Niners, much from betting syndicates.  Individual bettors have no clue about this.

The books employ some of the world's best analytics firms to model their lines.  Extremely sophisticated stuff that looks at entire ranges of games....not just one game at a time.  The books objective is not really to win every bet - it's to maximize profit given all of the information they have.  This goes far beyond your average bookie wanting to "even out" the action.

Pops is actually 100% right. I've seen some higher up guys from books talk about this on interviews and such. 

The books set lines that will get bets on both sides.....there's reason "juice" exists....lol

Well...Its literally the only way they make money- They don't expose thier money to risk, they don't gamble, they book bets, they don't make them-

I cannot believe I have to explain this here, of all places?

Its like going to a football message board and having to explain what a touchdown is? WTH?

Newbie?  Listen son.....

I'm not talking about your local down the street.  Come to Vegas and actually TALK to a sportsbook manager.  Your simplistic understanding of the books' strategy is well....you need to stretch that string a little tighter next time you make a call to the milkman to have him deliver you some butter.

Of course, getting even money is nice - but no, it's not the only priority as you make it out to be. 

If getting even $$$ was the only objective, then why don't we see lines of +20 or more in the NFL?  Or +25?  Because in many cases, THAT is what it would take to get your holy grail of "even money" on some games.  Do you think that line of +3.5 in the Seattle/Niners game had even money on both sides at kickoff?

Now go use that rotary phone on the wall in your kitchen to call Woolworth's and see if those longjohns you're giving the missus for Christmas are ready.

Exactly- 

You're clueless and youre lying because things you have said are things a parlay card playing college freshman in a dorm room would say- 

Your cover was blown the first time you opened your mouth